Inspired by this previous thread (on a capitalist India) as well as my own old thread (albeit in the absence of a suitable candidate for a nationalist capitalist India at the time), what if Rajaji became India's first Prime Minister instead of Nehru?
AHC/WI - Rajaji becomes India's first Prime Minister instead of Nehru
- Thread starter Masked Grizzly
- Start date
There would no doubt be some challenges to an ATL capitalist India under Rajaji though at least he serves as a suitable anti-communist alternative to Nehru or Bose.
What PODs would allow Rajaji to likely become Prime Minister in this scenario?
Not sure many Indians would be able to afford locally built Chevrolet Novas that early on (as it would require much earlier pre-independence PODs), could see a smaller car like a locally built Morris Minor / Mini (especially an early 4/5-door Mini on 84-inch wheelbase as a 1960s Maruti 800 precursor), Peugeot 204, Vauxhall Viva / Opel Kadett, Renault Dauphine, Renault 8/10, SEAT 850 (specifically the 4-door) or Simca 1000 and Fiat 124 (not Lada version) being as ubiquitous in India as the Volkswagen Beetle in Brazil / Mexico, prior to Indians growing income allowing them to upgrade to a larger car in the 1970s like an early locally built Volkswagen Citi Golf (South Africa) / Volkswagen Gol (Brazil) with cars sold/built in India quickly falling into line with the rest of the 1st world markets in the West as well as Japan's.
kernals12
Banned
The Novas are taxicabs. And 7% per capita income growth starting in 1950 would give India a standard of living comparable to Brazil by 1970.
So just read the bio for C. Rajagopalachari and these are my quick thoughts.
1. No One Party rule for the first part of India post-Independence history. Congress faces a organized opposition of more center and right parties with far-right and far-left parties on the edges.
2. No Emergency (1975-1977) to discredit family planning and a richer India can spend more on schools and medical care like the other 'Asian Tigers.'
3. No License Raj to hinder private investment and economic growth leading to more Western investment since this India is not so friendly with the USSR.
4. More tensions with China over Tibet and the border.
5. Less tensions with Pakistan unless Pakistan tries to provoke a conflict. This India would support Bangladesh achieving independence but more as a humanitarian/peacekeeping mission.
6. A richer India would have more influence 'soft power' in Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East based on the various India communities and businesses in the area.
7. Various democratic movements in the 'Asian Tigers' would show India as an example of democracy and capital can co-exist.
8. Nixon may not visit China and the US may see India as a partner in South Asia.
9. Eventually you may see the earlier rise of a right wing party similar to the BJP but it will be blunted by a rising middle class and minority communities.
1. No One Party rule for the first part of India post-Independence history. Congress faces a organized opposition of more center and right parties with far-right and far-left parties on the edges.
2. No Emergency (1975-1977) to discredit family planning and a richer India can spend more on schools and medical care like the other 'Asian Tigers.'
3. No License Raj to hinder private investment and economic growth leading to more Western investment since this India is not so friendly with the USSR.
4. More tensions with China over Tibet and the border.
5. Less tensions with Pakistan unless Pakistan tries to provoke a conflict. This India would support Bangladesh achieving independence but more as a humanitarian/peacekeeping mission.
6. A richer India would have more influence 'soft power' in Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East based on the various India communities and businesses in the area.
7. Various democratic movements in the 'Asian Tigers' would show India as an example of democracy and capital can co-exist.
8. Nixon may not visit China and the US may see India as a partner in South Asia.
9. Eventually you may see the earlier rise of a right wing party similar to the BJP but it will be blunted by a rising middle class and minority communities.
Understand. Would probably be more likely to see ATL India use smaller robust taxicabs like the Peugeot 404 and Peugeot 504, along with various Mercedes-Benz taxicabs, Volkswagen Santana (as in China) or even from Japan such as the Nissan Crew, Nissan Cedric Y31 and Toyota Comfort.
Difficult to see the likes of the Austin FX4, Checker Taxi or Ford Crown Victoria making it as taxicabs in India though could see GM for example attempting to get in on the action with a taxicab derived from either an existing car like the Vauxhall Victor FE (that formed the basis of the later locally-built Hindustan Contessa in OTL) or a taxicab using a locally made RWD GM V platform.
Failing that perhaps ATL capitalist India instead of Brazil would initially benefit from a locally-developed modular Corvair family, albeit featuring front anti-roll bars fitted from the outset with the ATL flat-6 Corvair viewed as an aspirational vehicle.
Someone else in another thread has claimed Rajaji becoming India's first Prime Minister was quite implausible, however it is still theoretically possible he could have become Prime Minister had Sardar Patel been chosen over Jawaharlal Nehru with Rajaji in turn succeeding Sardar Patel (as ideologically they were closer and on the opposite side of Jawaharlal Nehru).
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If India is not socialist in this ATL scenario then it appears the US under Truman would be even more inclined to favor the former as a consequence of most U.S. planners seeing it more valuable diplomatically than its neighbor compared to OTL under Nehru, whether that would be enough to push Pakistan towards the Soviets is another matter given the Pakistan Muslim League was both capitalist and pro-American.
OTL Indian-US Relations
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India–United_States_relations#Independence_(1947–1997)
OTL Pakistan-US Relations
OTL Indian-US Relations
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India–United_States_relations#Independence_(1947–1997)
OTL Pakistan-US Relations
It is possible the situation between ATL India and Pakistan would roughly parallel Greece and Turkey, though Pakistan might be pursuaded to become aligned with either the Soviets or in the event of the Sino-Soviet split become aligned with the PRC.
Pakistan was able to ally with Communist and Atheist China so that's not much of an issue. In Modern times Russia and Pakistan have had increasingly warm relations.
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/russia-pakistan-relations-impact-india-52715/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan–Russia_relations
Perhaps Pakistan's alignment with the Soviets could be further cemented by a successful Rawalpindi conspiracy? Which would also add an interesting twist later on to role Pakistan plays in the Soviet-Afghan War.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rawalpindi_conspiracy
So it seems a capitalist anti-communist India entails the following scenario:
Sardar Patel becomes India's first Prime Minister instead of Jawaharlal Nehru, Patel is in turn succeeded by Rajaji from 1950-1970 who both lead the country down a capitalist anti-communist path with no License Raj.
Nehru meanwhile eventually becomes the leader of the left wing in the Congress Party prior to the dominant right-wing forcing him out of the Party, creating a two-party system in the initial decades of ATL democratic India with the Left potentially dominated by a less successful Nehru-Gandhi political family that is subsequently marginalized by newer major political parties from the political centre to centre-left.
ATL India is aligned with the US instead of the Soviet Union with U.S. planners seeing it more valuable diplomatically than its neighbor Pakistan, which creates the potential for the latter to fall into the Soviet/PRC orbit despite the possibility of Pakistan remaining aligned to the US creating a rough South Asian analogue of Greece and Turkey.
If Pakistan is aligned to the Soviets/PRC, it would be interesting to see how differently it acts to the situation in neighboring Afghanistan compared to OTL where it aided the Sunni Mujahideen in the Soviet-Afghan War. Perhaps Iran's role (in the event the 1979 revolution still happens) extends beyond aiding the Shia Mujahideen against the Soviets, though it is difficult to see the Soviets being defeated if Pakistan is aligned with the Soviets/PRC as well as difficult to see a US-Iranian alliance against the Soviets in Afghanistan.
One question that comes to mind in this ATL scenario is which candidates would serve as suitable successors to Rajaji after 1970, should the ATL right-wing Congress party still be as politically dominant during the 1970s and 1980s as it was in OTL.
Sardar Patel becomes India's first Prime Minister instead of Jawaharlal Nehru, Patel is in turn succeeded by Rajaji from 1950-1970 who both lead the country down a capitalist anti-communist path with no License Raj.
Nehru meanwhile eventually becomes the leader of the left wing in the Congress Party prior to the dominant right-wing forcing him out of the Party, creating a two-party system in the initial decades of ATL democratic India with the Left potentially dominated by a less successful Nehru-Gandhi political family that is subsequently marginalized by newer major political parties from the political centre to centre-left.
ATL India is aligned with the US instead of the Soviet Union with U.S. planners seeing it more valuable diplomatically than its neighbor Pakistan, which creates the potential for the latter to fall into the Soviet/PRC orbit despite the possibility of Pakistan remaining aligned to the US creating a rough South Asian analogue of Greece and Turkey.
If Pakistan is aligned to the Soviets/PRC, it would be interesting to see how differently it acts to the situation in neighboring Afghanistan compared to OTL where it aided the Sunni Mujahideen in the Soviet-Afghan War. Perhaps Iran's role (in the event the 1979 revolution still happens) extends beyond aiding the Shia Mujahideen against the Soviets, though it is difficult to see the Soviets being defeated if Pakistan is aligned with the Soviets/PRC as well as difficult to see a US-Iranian alliance against the Soviets in Afghanistan.
One question that comes to mind in this ATL scenario is which candidates would serve as suitable successors to Rajaji after 1970, should the ATL right-wing Congress party still be as politically dominant during the 1970s and 1980s as it was in OTL.
IIRC, didn't Patel advocate a more aggressive policy against Pakistan in the years prior to both states declaring themselves republics from the earlier British dominion system? if Nehru dies and is succeeded by Patel before Rajaji comes to the fore, i could see the 1948 Kashmir War escalate into a general war between India and Pakistan rather than staying a localized conflict. This could have fundamental consequences for the early history of both India and Pakistan.
India was one of the leading members of the Non-Aligned Movement even though they leaned rather heavily towards the USSR, not having Nehru in power is going to cause butterflies but could we perhaps see a truly neutral and non-aligned India? Being able to court both superpowers–and their foreign aid–like Afghanistan did but on a larger scale could be rather beneficial.
It is indeed possible though India could likely lean towards the US whilst still potentially being part of the Non-Aligned Movement, another idea would be India being one of the leading members of a 2nd center/right-leaning Non-Aligned Movement under a different name (not sure which other candidates would join such a movement however).
Cannot say, certainly possible though.
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