The level of determinism on this board is too damn high.
It would obviously require a major point of difference, but there must surely have been abuses in the Orthodox Church that people could dislike. Even if the Patriarch was not as powerful as the Pope that doesn't stop him being a figure head for complaints. I'm sure we could get some Russia equivalent of Calvin who is inspire by Luther's ideas and adapts them for a Russian context. Then you need to get a Tsar who embraces it at a later point.
Objectively, there are huge determinisms. And ignoring them is quite falling into ASB ways. Just consider a few facts.
Orthodoxy is even more distant from Protestantism than Catholicism is.
The cult of holy Images is one important part of Orthodoxy while it was considered heresy by protestant reformers.
To have a favourable ground for protestantism, you need to have reacted a certain threshold of literacy, urbanization and individual freedom. And by that time, Russia was far away from meeting these kinds of prerequisite.
And you have to deal with the fact that russian national identity was built on resistance to non-christian mongols and that, for the common people, this led to having a very strong attachment to orthodoxy, orthodoxy being considered by almost everybody as the only conceivable form of christianism.