AHC/WI: President Gephardt 1988

Black Monday is worse and causes a recession. By 1988 the economy is in a recession and unemployment is rising. How could this occur? Then Gephardt does better and as an economic populist gains stronger support and he wins the nomination and presidency.

That's a possible scenario. Any thoughts on Gephardt 1988 and his presidency?
 
Black Monday is worse and causes a recession. By 1988 the economy is in a recession and unemployment is rising. How could this occur?

It could occur if the media pushed Alan Greenspan connection to the Lincoln Savings scandal. IOTL, the connections were pushed by the media in 1989, by which point investors trusted Greenspan for ostensibly keeping '87 from turning into a recession. If those connections were pushed two years earlier, we get the 1990s recession earlier.
 
Maybe Gep uses his protectionist rhetoric more as the opening bid in a poker game and negotiates better trade deals. Sorry to mix the metaphors between poker and bridge, but real life is kind of that way!

And as far as policy which helps to build more middle-class jobs, I hope protectionist policy is merely one dish at the table and not the whole thing.
 
I guess. The question is how would you be able to take both Jim Wright and Tom Foley down without any major backlash against the Democrats?

Jim Wright had his scandals. As for Foley, use the same strategy as Nethercutt did to attack him, and there you go.
 
Black Monday leads to a recession, helping Gephardt win primaries, Bush wins(after tougher primary) but Gephardt wins general.
genusmap.php

Gephardt/Bentsen-Democratic: 313 EV 51.25% PV
Bush/Quayle-Republican: 225 EV 47.52% PV

Surprisingly, Bush still wins Texas as the OTL margin was too great for me to flip with the swing I used for this map.
 
Black Monday leads to a recession, helping Gephardt win primaries, Bush wins(after tougher primary) but Gephardt wins general.
genusmap.php

Gephardt/Bentsen-Democratic: 313 EV 51.25% PV
Bush/Quayle-Republican: 225 EV 47.52% PV

Surprisingly, Bush still wins Texas as the OTL margin was too great for me to flip with the swing I used for this map.

Just by 4 points? I'm surprised. I'd expect the recession to be something like 1992 or 2008, to be frank.
 
Just by 4 points? I'm surprised. I'd expect the recession to be something like 1992 or 2008, to be frank.

genusmap.php

Gephardt/Bentsen-Democratic: 355 EV 52.25% PV
Bush/Quayle-Republican: 183 EV 46.52% PV

I think the first one's more plausible, the recession isn't that bad yet, and unlike Clinton Gephardt still carries much of the baggage the Democrats had ('soft on crime', liberalism's decline etc). I don't think even with the recession the ingredients would be there for a true landslide for Gephardt, but a comfortable victory instead. Idk though.
 
genusmap.php

Gephardt/Bentsen-Democratic: 355 EV 52.25% PV
Bush/Quayle-Republican: 183 EV 46.52% PV

I think the first one's more plausible, the recession isn't that bad yet, and unlike Clinton Gephardt still carries much of the baggage the Democrats had ('soft on crime', liberalism's decline etc). I don't think even with the recession the ingredients would be there for a true landslide for Gephardt, but a comfortable victory instead. Idk though.

Fair enough, but the recession would still be pretty bad (there wouldn't be the slight recovery either), Gephardt can attack Reagan for returning the US to recession and doing nothing, and Gephardt wouldn't waffle on whether he's a liberal or not either.

Besides, with a recession, crime issues no longer matter as much
 
Fair enough, but the recession would still be pretty bad (there wouldn't be the slight recovery either), Gephardt can attack Reagan for returning the US to recession and doing nothing, and Gephardt wouldn't waffle on whether he's a liberal or not either.

Besides, with a recession, crime issues no longer matter as much

Perhaps, but I still think that part of Clinton and Obama's landslides were their strength as a candidate that Gephardt doesn't have. What do other people think?
 
Perhaps, but I still think that part of Clinton and Obama's landslides were their strength as a candidate that Gephardt doesn't have. What do other people think?
While I think a recession after Black Tuesday is very plausible, I think the resulting recession would be more like the very mild recession of 2001 rather than 1990-91 or 2007-2009. It would still give the Democrats the win, but not in a landslide, probably an electoral victory in the 270-320 range.
 
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