AHC/WI: PLC dominated by Lithuania

BigBlueBox

Banned
So, how could Lithuania become the dominant part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and what would the effects be? When I say dominant, I mean militarily, economically, and culturally, such as Poles getting Lithuanized.
 
You need to really screw the Poles to and really buff the Lithuanians to make this happen.

Some possible developments: More widespread destruction of Poland during the Mongol invasions (Lithuania is spared in this continued Mongol age), during the fragmentation, have Bohemia get more than just Silesia (maybe Poznan as well) but not let Poland expand in Galicia as they did, on top of all have the Teutons expand as OTL, but diminish they success in Lithuania (like taking the coast in the late 1300s).
 
The problem with a Lithuanian-Polish Commonwealth is that in the world we live in, the Lithuanians weren't more numerous and couldn't have possibly been more numerous than Poles. They lived on shitty, forested and swamp-ridden land, not really fit for agriculture. In the 1260s, the Lithuanians numbered about 400 000 people in a territory somewhat larger than OTL Lithuania, which is tiny, about as densely inhabited as Libya.

But it is possible. You need to prevent the Baltic Crusades, that's for sure - and instead of having Lithuania expand East, you should have them move West. Take over Prussia, Curonia and all other Baltic lands, which should be feasible by the late 13th century. Much like in OTL, the other Balts would assimilate into the Lithuanian ethnicity, and this would result in a considerably larger Lithuanian population, as well as give them control over more fertile lands in Sūduva and Prussia. Lithuania could potentially end up wealthier and more centralized than OTL, as it would be a lot more compact and wouldn't have a dozen conquered Slavic principalities holding it down, and if Poland ends up nerfed, a LPC could be possible.

As for your second request (Poles Lithuanizing), that is a lot trickier and requires a considerably earlier POD. The problem here is that Lithuanians did not Polonize simply because they were ruled by Poles - Polish culture and language was seen as "Western" and more "cultured", while Lithuanian traditions were perceived as backwards and pagan, so they were abandoned. Thus, you not only need a LPC, but also Lithuania having a technological and development advantage over Poland.

I propose a POD - instead of meddling with minor dukes in Prussia and then dying, Saint Bruno converts a major Lithuanian duke, who proceeds to use Christianity as a unifying force, creating a Christian Lithuania in the 11th century, around the same time as Poland, Hungary and Rus'. Lithuania joins Rome during the Schism and unites the Eastern Baltic under them, and as they became Christian around the same time as Poland in this scenario, they would not be so disadvantaged and perhaps could keep up with the rest of Europe. Lithuania could use it's strategic position in the center of Europe to trade with Scandinavia, Central and Eastern Europe, become a center of trade in Europe and grow wealthy from that - at least wealthier than Poland. We could nerf Poland here somewhere, too.

Although, there is a problem with this scenario that I should mention: with Lithuania as the senior partner, a "noble democracy" Commonwealth could not arise. Lithuania had no traditions of noble liberties, and in it's early days, it was governed as a stratocracy with a government organization resembling something like Early Medieval states. A LPC would be a lot more absolute than a PLC.
 
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