AHC/WI: Philippine Revolution successful

With a POD(s) before or during the Philippine Revolution, what are the chances of the Philippines successfully becoming independent?

PS: I'm gathering some ideas for a planned timeline of mine...
 
During the Spanish-American War, there was a very good chance that the US could decide to not annex the place at all and just create an independent republic (like in Cuba). Annexing the Philippines was a very controversial decision, and it would be pretty easy to make it not happen.

IOTL, Roosevelt (Assistant Secretary of the Navy at the time) actually ordered the US Navy to attack the Philippines while Secretary of the Navy Long was out of the office, without Long's knowledge or approval. If Long had been in the office that day, it's possible that he would have told Dewey "Don't attack the Philippines". Then the US would have never gained control of the islands, and the Philippines would just be an independent republic (or two republics, if Mindanao gained independence) or remain a Spanish possession.

So there you go. The Philippines is independent, no additional Filipinos or Americans have to die to make it happen. :)
 
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With a POD(s) before or during the Philippine Revolution, what are the chances of the Philippines successfully becoming independent?

PS: I'm gathering some ideas for a planned timeline of mine...

Otl philippine rebellions against Spain in 19th century that threatened Manila
1823 - insulares/mestizo/creole rebellion, no Indio participation, intramuros/Manila taken
1828 - Palmero conspiracy, plot by insulares/mestizos/creole to overthrow the government
1840 - Pule rebellion, religious/Indio rebellion, thousands of followers in Manila and surrounding areas, fort santiago on Manila was captured by creole rebels
1872 - cavite mutiny - creole/mestizo rebellion in cavite, fort captured in cavite
1897 - Indio rebellion, aguinaldo captures whole of cavite
1898 - total rebellion, Indios and insulares/mestizos participate. All of philippines captured except Manila before USA soldiers land.

The closer you get to 20th century the lesser chance it would succeed due to tech difference and more interest in the region by great powers. An example would be in 1820s PoD philippine rebels were in tech parity with the great powers, capability to build ships of the same tech, weaponry. Also more advanced than Japan or China. By 1890s PoD, philippine rebels are not the same level of tech as USA, Japan even though at parity with Spain.
 
Otl philippine rebellions against Spain in 19th century that threatened Manila
1823 - insulares/mestizo/creole rebellion, no Indio participation, intramuros/Manila taken
1828 - Palmero conspiracy, plot by insulares/mestizos/creole to overthrow the government
1840 - Pule rebellion, religious/Indio rebellion, thousands of followers in Manila and surrounding areas, fort santiago on Manila was captured by creole rebels
1872 - cavite mutiny - creole/mestizo rebellion in cavite, fort captured in cavite
1897 - Indio rebellion, aguinaldo captures whole of cavite
1898 - total rebellion, Indios and insulares/mestizos participate. All of philippines captured except Manila before USA soldiers land.

The closer you get to 20th century the lesser chance it would succeed due to tech difference and more interest in the region by great powers. An example would be in 1820s PoD philippine rebels were in tech parity with the great powers, capability to build ships of the same tech, weaponry. Also more advanced than Japan or China. By 1890s PoD, philippine rebels are not the same level of tech as USA, Japan even though at parity with Spain.
Even if Manila is taken it is likely that the Philippines will fragment or/and other colonizers like the Dutch will take the Philippines, the Dutch wanted to take the Philippines in OTL.
 
Even if Manila is taken it is likely that the Philippines will fragment or/and other colonizers like the Dutch will take the Philippines, the Dutch wanted to take the Philippines in OTL.

This is true if the PoD would be 16th century since Philippines would have little to no mestizos nor locals understanding western tech and sophistication.

The Dutch dont have the resources nor the manpower to conquer the Philippines by the 19th Century. The reason for this is the Philippines is a westernized nation by 19th Century. While other Dutch conquest in the OTL 19th century were backward nations compared to Philippines, like Java, Sumatra, Aceh, etc.

It may fragment will totally depend with the author. Philippines has almost the same problem as Mexico. A significant Creole/mesitzo population, large native population. Both nations had More people speaking local languages than Spanish with Multiple dialects/languages that separate localities. Both nations were also majority Catholic which would have eased diplomatic tensions. Both had western tech and capabilities not unlike all those that were conquered by the Dutch in the 19th century like Java, Aceh, etc.
 
It may fragment will totally depend with the author. Philippines has almost the same problem as Mexico. A significant Creole/mesitzo population, large native population.
The difference is that Mexico has its native population decimated by smallpox, the Philippines is not, the Creole population is just small.

I remember the Philippine revolutionaries around the time of Fil-Am war were trying to do genocide against the criolos.
 
The difference is that Mexico has its native population decimated by smallpox, the Philippines is not, the Creole population is just small.

I remember the Philippine revolutionaries around the time of Fil-Am war were trying to do genocide against the criolos.

You cannot genocide creoles/mestizos when they are a major part of the 1898 revolt. The revolt was aimed at the Peninsulares who were the friars and the Spanish colonial government by OTL 1890s.

There is a difference between creoles/mestizos, insulares and peninsulares. I think you mean there is only a small population of peninsulares but a large part of creoles/mestizos in the Philippines.

Almost all of the Filipinos alive in OTL today are mestizos/creoles by ethnicity definition.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Not knocking the idea, but there are several

Not knocking the idea, but there are several recent discussions and even a TL or two on a sucessful Nineteenth Century Filipino revolution. Lot of back and forth in those...

The obvious one is to tie it into the Napoleonic wars; have a successful rebellion in the Philippines over the French occupation of Spain, same time frame and strategic realities as those in the Spanish Empire in the Western Hemisphere, so 1801-1820, roughly.

End result could be a Philippine Republic with ties to the UK and/or US... given the tropical climate, and the internal divisions within the archipelago, one or more states (Luzon+Visayas and Mindanao+Palawan?) that resemble (roughly) Peru and/or Gran Colombia in terms of their levels of national consolidation and the like at the point of departure.

Best,
 
TFSmith is right; there are several TLs that tackle this topic; some used the 1823 Revolt as their POD, others used the late 19th century (caloysky's Supremo, for example)
 
You cannot genocide creoles/mestizos when they are a major part of the 1898 revolt. The revolt was aimed at the Peninsulares who were the friars and the Spanish colonial government by OTL 1890s.

There is a difference between creoles/mestizos, insulares and peninsulares. I think you mean there is only a small population of peninsulares but a large part of creoles/mestizos in the Philippines.

Almost all of the Filipinos alive in OTL today are mestizos/creoles by ethnicity definition.

Mestizos and Natives are the majority most numerous are the Chinese Mestizos, the Creoles and Peninsulares are the minority, Creoles are the Spanish born in the Philippines, some of the people in the 1898 revolt wanted to exterminate both the Creoles and the Peninsulares.
 
Mestizos and Natives are the majority most numerous are the Chinese Mestizos, the Creoles and Peninsulares are the minority, Creoles are the Spanish born in the Philippines, some of the people in the 1898 revolt wanted to exterminate both the Creoles and the Peninsulares.

I don't know where you get your definition

Common definition is Spanish ethnicity born in the philippines is called insulares.

Spanish have been marrying natives since 16th century. The only reason you think that way is that race mixing has been going on for centuries. After century or so, these people will claim to be Filipinos not Spanish just like the British migrants in 17th century came to be known American by 18th century.

There were a lot of insulares who helped and lead the revolt. First in foremost they were the center of the revolt before 1890s, from Novales down to cavite mutiny. Don't even you even know Manuel quezon is pure Spanish blood born in philippines? This is the same Manuel quezon who worked under aguinaldo during the revolt and became president.

So I don't know how you concocted stories where Creoles and insulares are being killed when they are part and most of the time leaders of philippine revolts.
 
I don't know where you get your definition

Common definition is Spanish ethnicity born in the philippines is called insulares.

Spanish have been marrying natives since 16th century. The only reason you think that way is that race mixing has been going on for centuries. After century or so, these people will claim to be Filipinos not Spanish just like the British migrants in 17th century came to be known American by 18th century.

There were a lot of insulares who helped and lead the revolt. First in foremost they were the center of the revolt before 1890s, from Novales down to cavite mutiny. Don't even you even know Manuel quezon is pure Spanish blood born in philippines? This is the same Manuel quezon who worked under aguinaldo during the revolt and became president.

So I don't know how you concocted stories where Creoles and insulares are being killed when they are part and most of the time leaders of philippine revolts.
So what I really meant was Insulares not Creoles, thank you for correcting me.

I was trying to say that there are also people who wanted to kill both the Insulares and Peninsulares, I read about that in a certain website(there is an account about that happening but it is hard to search that on that website), those people are Nativists who wanted to expel/exterminate all non-malays in the archipelago, there were nativists within the Philippine Revolution and there were also Neo-Pagans like Papa Isio(Papa Isio is also a nativist and wanted the Insulares and Peninsulares expelled from Negros) and those who wanted to change the name of the Philippines to Katagalugan, these differences are what caused the revolution to fragment into factions(which started during the split between Bonifacio and Aguinaldo) which led to its defeat under the Americans later on.

Had both the Nativists and Name Changers won, it would have been hell for the Insulares and Peninsulares and perhaps the elite as well but it is said that it will be heaven for the masses who had been oppressed by the Elite and the Colonizers.
 
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Well, wondering what your POD is. Perhaps there can be other changes in Asian history if it is early enough?:D

Yes, that's a very big possibility, especially on Asian nations.

About the POD, I'm leaning more towards pre-1896, which leads to an earlier Philippine independence, or the same date as OTL.
 
Well, wondering what your POD is. Perhaps there can be other changes in Asian history if it is early enough?:D

It would. Independence 1820s or earlier would effect even Opium wars, China, Hong Kong and Britain. Even if you start from scratch, philippine can build ships of the line thanks to the shipyards left by the Spanish and high quality wood locally.

By the 1850/ pod or earlier, it will totally depend if Philippines embraces industrialization. If it did, it would affect Japan and the Meiji restoration. This also includes any war between china and japan since you will add another power to that mix.

Any of the above will also affect how the Dutch completion conquest of Dutch East Indies since the Dutch or aceh or other Indonesian states can ask help or aid. It would also affect Borneo, Brunei including Sarawak.
 
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