With a POD(s) before or during the Philippine Revolution, what are the chances of the Philippines successfully becoming independent?
PS: I'm gathering some ideas for a planned timeline of mine...
Otl philippine rebellions against Spain in 19th century that threatened Manila
1823 - insulares/mestizo/creole rebellion, no Indio participation, intramuros/Manila taken
1828 - Palmero conspiracy, plot by insulares/mestizos/creole to overthrow the government
1840 - Pule rebellion, religious/Indio rebellion, thousands of followers in Manila and surrounding areas, fort santiago on Manila was captured by creole rebels
1872 - cavite mutiny - creole/mestizo rebellion in cavite, fort captured in cavite
1897 - Indio rebellion, aguinaldo captures whole of cavite
1898 - total rebellion, Indios and insulares/mestizos participate. All of philippines captured except Manila before USA soldiers land.
The closer you get to 20th century the lesser chance it would succeed due to tech difference and more interest in the region by great powers. An example would be in 1820s PoD philippine rebels were in tech parity with the great powers, capability to build ships of the same tech, weaponry. Also more advanced than Japan or China. By 1890s PoD, philippine rebels are not the same level of tech as USA, Japan even though at parity with Spain.