AHC/WI : People's Republic of China perceived as more of a threat than the USSR?

No matter who was in charge of China, whether KMT or CCP, or the moderates or hardliners, an invasion of Tibet and its annexation was always happening post civil war. it's the conditions of autonomy that would and could change afterwards. No faction recognized tibetan independence and neither did any country in the world.
How did Chiang view Tibet along with those disputed regions in the Himalayas where India and the PRC fought in 1962?
 
Now with that said, would the KMT be any better to the Tibetans and Ughyurs?

Yes, the KMT was just as authoritarian as the CCP was.
Depends on which faction arises victorious. Under Chiang tho - if the native Taiwanese are anything to go by under his rule, no not really. He would probably be better with the Uyghurs but even harsher with the Tibetans. He had very negative views on Tibetans in general.
 
Depends on which faction arises victorious. Under Chiang tho - if the native Taiwanese are anything to go by under his rule, no not really. He would probably be better with the Uyghurs but even harsher with the Tibetans. He had very negative views on Tibetans in general.
So even udner the ROC, the Tibetans would still be oppressed? What do you think will happen to the Dalai Lama?
 
Here's a shot in the dark: Deng, Hua, and other reformists are defeated by the Gang of Four in the post-Mao power struggle. Is it a late development? Yes. Hell, the USSR is barely going to survive another decade. But the Gang of Four such as Jiang Qing and Wang Hongwen would continue trends of Maoist orthodoxy and international development. China would never focus on rapprochement with the US and still remain hostile to the USSR, and with a continued socialist mode of production and focus on the third world could easily become a counterbalance against both powers in the Middle East, southeast Asia, and perhaps Africa.

Economic development would be a struggle, however. One of Deng's big contributions was moving China forward from a developmentalist economy to a consumption-based economy and beginning to resolve China's skills shortages. These are things the Gang of Four would have to tackle, but even though China would never transition to a capitalist mode of production I believe that the global rise of capitalism in the late 20th century (especially after the fall of the USSR!) would eventually lead to China's economy starting to rise as globalization becomes more and more common: if the Gang of Four doesn't begin work on the skills shortages, deficiencies in transportation, and lack of agricultural mechanization in the first place. If China can truly obtain self-sufficiency (which I personally doubt), then the US and western world as a whole would obviously see it as a much more massive threat.

I only see this if KMT wins civil war, and they industrialize fast, but a KMT China is probably more US friendly so idk.
There's no reason to assume that a GMD China would industrialize faster than a CPC China. I doubt it would, actually. The GMD wouldn't have funding from the US nor have the incentive nor arguably authority to undergo a program like the Great Leap Forward (which, for all its faults, massively industrialized and modernized China and was a key reason for ending the nearly quinquennial cycle of famine). If anything, the GMD would industrialize China far slower than the CPC.
 
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If the PRC was more of a threat than the USSR, then we could see the 1980s rapprochement to China as reverse in place with the USSR.

As @Monk78 proposed, it might lead to joint U.S.-USSR cooperation against the PRC:
 
If the PRC was more of a threat than the USSR, then we could see the 1980s rapprochement to China as reverse in place with the USSR.

As @Monk78 proposed, it might lead to joint U.S.-USSR cooperation against the PRC:
So like a scenario seen in a James Bond movie, where the PRC financed an attempted terrorist attack against the USA.
 
Actually, to be perceived as a threat doesn't mean actually being a threat. Just have maoists (Gang of 4, Hua Guofeng or Ling Biao) remain in power and make China more supportive of maoist rebels like Naxalites and the Shining path. In 1980s-1990s those rebels may attack some US embassy and you get an anti-maoist "War on terror" with all the panic and exxageration of China's danger (like IRL Al-Qaeda).
 
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So like a scenario seen in a James Bond movie, where the PRC financed an attempted terrorist attack against the USA.
What James Bond movie is this?
Actually, to be perceived as a threat doesn't mean actually being a threat. Just have maoists (Gang of 4, Hua Guofeng or Bi Xilai) remain in power and make China more supportive of maoist rebels like Naxalites and the Shining path. In 1980s-1990s those rebels may attack some US embassy and you get an anti-maoist "War on terror" with all the panic and exxageration of China's danger (like IRL Al-Qaeda).
In that sense, would the U.S. even have the rapprochement to China?

I was thinking if the rapprochement never existed, therefore there would be a much more containment effort of the PRC.

@Monk78 has an older scenario about a PRC vs Taiwan War in 1983-1984. It might result into this path if the POD is before 1971-72.
 

marathag

Banned
r arguably authority to undergo a program like the Great Leap Forward (which, for all its faults, massively industrialized and modernized China and was a key reason for ending the nearly quinquennial cycle of famine).
It also killed a lot of people who would no longer be productive workers.
GLF 'helped' Red China in much the same way that the Black Death helped Europe in the 14thC
 
There's no reason to assume that a GMD China would industrialize faster than a CPC China. I doubt it would, actually. The GMD wouldn't have funding from the US nor have the incentive nor arguably authority to undergo a program like the Great Leap Forward (which, for all its faults, massively industrialized and modernized China and was a key reason for ending the nearly quinquennial cycle of famine). If anything, the GMD would industrialize China far slower than the CPC.

The Great Leap Forward led to the death of 45,000,000 people and destroyed more of chinas urban housing then the second Sino-Japanese war. China didn’t industrialize till Deng Xiaoping, this might be the first time I’ve seen anyone defend the GLF on here.
 
The Great Leap Forward led to the death of 45,000,000 people and destroyed more of chinas urban housing then the second Sino-Japanese war. China didn’t industrialize till Deng Xiaoping, this might be the first time I’ve seen anyone defend the GLF on here.
It also killed a lot of people who would no longer be productive workers.
GLF 'helped' Red China in much the same way that the Black Death helped Europe in the 14thC
The GLF saw steel production alone go from 1.3 to 23 million tons and electricity improve from 7 million to 133 billion kilowatts-hour. Heavy industry output increased by 230%, total food production rose by nearly 170%, industry in Chinese gross national development rose from 36% to 72%, divorce was legalized and women's rights in China moved forward by decades, average income for workers rose by over 30%, capital investment doubled, life expectancy raised by ~22 years (from 1960 to 1976 as a whole, mind you: World Bank), the cycle of famine came to a total halt (China went from having two famines roughly every decade to not having a famine in over 70 years after the GLF), and tractor and fertilizer production exploded.

There are obvious things to criticize about the Great Leap Forward (such as the relocation of farmers to urban industries leaving grain to rot, the Four Pests Campaign, local officials inflating agricultural numbers, and many other mistakes too numerous to list, many of which directly influenced the Great Chinese Famine) and things outside of government control that would've led to food insecurity anyway (unusual weather patterns during the late 50's and early 60's were very impactful combined with China being a famine-prone country at the time already), but to say it was a "total failure", didn't help China at all, or that China "didn't industrialize until Deng" (China's industrialization is what made Deng's 'reforms' so successful!) is backwards. The Great Leap Forward was a massive industrial leap that directly led to China's position as a world economical leader now, for better or worse. Its successes led to a massive increase in industrial output, the breaking of the brutal cycle of famine that had been a part of Chinese life for nearly a century, and increased global relevance. Its failures (and debatably parts of its success as well) led to the rise of the offshore nearly slave-based economy we see in China now (Thanks, Deng!) and, in part, the Great Chinese Famine. Not to mention that the US pressured other western countries to stop grain shipments to China during the famine!

Edit: Also, "45 million people". Dikotter and his consequences have been a disaster for the human race. I'd recommend taking a look at this article by Monthly Review for a decent series of criticisms around inflated death tolls due to the Great Chinese Famine.
 
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The GLF saw steel production alone go from 1.3 to 23 million tons and electricity improve from 7 million to 133 billion kilowatts-hour. Heavy industry output increased by 230%, total food production rose by nearly 170%, industry in Chinese gross national development rose from 36% to 72%, divorce was legalized and women's rights in China moved forward by decades, average income for workers rose by over 30%, capital investment doubled, life expectancy raised by ~22 years (from 1960 to 1976 as a whole, mind you: World Bank), the cycle of famine came to a total halt (China went from having two famines roughly every decade to not having a famine in over 70 years after the GLF), and tractor and fertilizer production exploded.

There are obvious things to criticize about the Great Leap Forward (such as the relocation of farmers to urban industries leaving grain to rot, the Four Pests Campaign, local officials inflating agricultural numbers, and many other mistakes too numerous to list, many of which directly influenced the Great Chinese Famine) and things outside of government control that would've led to food insecurity anyway (unusual weather patterns during the late 50's and early 60's were very impactful combined with China being a famine-prone country at the time already), but to say it was a "total failure", didn't help China at all, or that China "didn't industrialize until Deng" (China's industrialization is what made Deng's 'reforms' so successful!) is backwards. The Great Leap Forward was a massive industrial leap that directly led to China's position as a world economical leader now, for better or worse. Its successes led to a massive increase in industrial output, the breaking of the brutal cycle of famine that had been a part of Chinese life for nearly a century, and increased global relevance. Its failures (and debatably parts of its success as well) led to the rise of the offshore nearly slave-based economy we see in China now (Thanks, Deng!) and, in part, the Great Chinese Famine. Not to mention that the US pressured other western countries to stop grain shipments to China during the famine!

Edit: Also, "45 million people". Dikotter and his consequences have been a disaster for the human race. I'd recommend taking a look at this article by Monthly Review for a decent series of criticisms around inflated death tolls due to the Great Chinese Famine.
Cant say I know enough about this subject to critique this comment one way or another, I’m just impressed to A) find an actual defense of the GLP in the wild that B) is fairly nuanced
 

marathag

Banned
The GLF saw steel production alone go from 1.3 to 23 million tons and electricity improve from 7 million to 133 billion kilowatts-hour. Heavy industry output increased by 230%, total food production rose by nearly 170%, industry in Chinese gross national development rose from 36% to 72%, divorce was legalized and women's rights in China moved forward by decades, average income for workers rose by over 30%, capital investment doubled, life expectancy raised by ~22 years (from 1960 to 1976 as a whole, mind you: World Bank), the cycle of famine came to a total halt (China went from having two famines roughly every decade to not having a famine in over 70 years after the GLF), and tractor and fertilizer production exploded.

There are obvious things to criticize about the Great Leap Forward (such as the relocation of farmers to urban industries leaving grain to rot, the Four Pests Campaign, local officials inflating agricultural numbers, and many other mistakes too numerous to list,
Are there any numbers that can be trusted?

It's known that the Chinese exported food during the GLF for currency, just as Stalin did with the Holodomor.

The backyard blast funaces made 'steel' of such low quality to be near useless for industrial use.

the last Famine in the USSR was just after WWII, and Stalin didn't need a GLF to end them.
 
Are there any numbers that can be trusted?
I'd recommend taking a look at the National Review article I linked. It has quite a few sources, from official Chinese statistics and independent studies from universities around the world and even Congress.

The backyard blast funaces made 'steel' of such low quality to be near useless for industrial use.
Of which only around 600,000 existed. This sounds like a lot, but in the modern era China has over 200 million active farms and 425 million agricultural workers. The impact and number of backyard furnaces during the Great Leap Forward are exaggerated for, hopefully, obvious reasons. It's like people saying "but all kulaks did was have a goat!" ignoring that in the vast majority of cases kulaks were arrested and/or reported by the citizenry, mostly their employees, and many were proven to store excess grain in order to sell it. Did "kulaks" that only had a goat or a few livestock exist and get arrested for it? Yeah, but it's exaggerated in a massive scale.

the last Famine in the USSR was just after WWII, and Stalin didn't need a GLF to end them.
Because the USSR was already a massive industrial powerhouse, in part due to the VKP(b)'s exportation of grain as mentioned earlier. The USSR was, at the time, the second-most industrial nation on the planet after the United States, give or take. The Five Year Plans were essentially a Soviet GLF (although much smaller in scale given that Russia was industrializing before either Revolution, something China was struggling with given it hadn't been a coherent country for decades before the CPC took power: they're not exactly comparable, in full honesty, but it's the closest you're gonna get). Trying to say "but STALIN didn't need the specific adaptations to material conditions that MAO did!" is not the gotcha you think it is. Stalin didn't need a Great Leap Forward and Mao didn't need a Molotov-Ribbentrop.
 
No matter who was in charge of China, whether KMT or CCP, or the moderates or hardliners, an invasion of Tibet and its annexation was always happening post civil war. it's the conditions of autonomy that would and could change afterwards. No faction recognized tibetan independence and neither did any country in the world.
Yeah, in my opinion the ROC in general certainly has no reason at all to leave an independent Tibet. I recall ROC claims across most of the lands occupied under the Qing. Tibet certainly would fall once any faction felt that their power is secure enough and their rivals ousted.
 

marathag

Banned
The impact and number of backyard furnaces during the Great Leap Forward are exaggerated for,
Still over a half a million units.
That's fine, if you were going for a return to the past of local steelmaking for the local blacksmith, And by past, it's what China had been doing for making steel when Alexander the Great was still a baby. Small Blast furnaces had been around China for a _Long_ time

Efficiency of scale is what the British learned with their Industrial Revolution. Large Mills

Mao's command was 'Back to the Past' not the future, with that 'Past' being 400BC, not the 19th Century, let alone 20th
 
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