What if the People's Republic of China was taken more seriously and a bigger threat than the Soviet Union and the WARPAC ? Could have it happened? What if there wasn't a thaw between China and the USA?
AHC/WI : People's Republic of China perceived as more of a threat than the USSR?
- Thread starter roderickgibsono
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Need to continue the dynamics of the late 50s with the USSR pursuing peaceful coexistence whilst being wary of sharing nuclear technology with China. Eventually leading to the USSR grumbling about needing to keep China under control to the US and the US identifying China as the bigger threat. Perhaps Nixon being elected in 1960 could help?
Basils
Banned
Also no Great Leap Forward or anything disastrous. China also has to get stronger for it to be viewed as a threat. The sooner it develops the sooner it will can be conceivable to viewed as threat. Huge population is good, but without a massive industry, it only goes so far.
Yellow Peril stays mainstream for longer, so xenophobia and racism build up the threat even if it isn't real.
I could see the Soviets trying to feed it. "If the West is fears China more we have a freer hand."
I could see the Soviets trying to feed it. "If the West is fears China more we have a freer hand."
The PRC being stronger in actuality is not necessarily a prerequisite for the world to perceive it as a bigger threat. Countries can be broke as shit and still fund/support all sorts of strange across the world, thus punching far above their weight. Think DPRK, Cuba, and Iran at various points and all the various groups they bankrolled and volunteers sent to various conflicts. A PRC with a GDP per capita of ~$30 that funnels 30% of its GDP (~$5 billion) into its military and supporting insurgency groups all across the world can cause quite a bit of disruption.
Reducing the perceived threat of the USSR is probably best done in the 1930s, when communist parties across the world were clearly taking orders from a totalitarian nation with reports of the Holodomor leaking out, but still vague enough to potentially be a sign of awful strength rather than economic weakness. A lot of Russia's inability to normalize relations with the West post-WW2 stems from (accurate) impressions solidified in that period. A less top-down organized comintern, coupled with less expansionist efforts on the USSR's part pre-WW2, would go a long way towards making ordinary American citizens view Russia as an exotic dictatorship rather than an imminent threat. Less espionage activity by the KGB in general (especially publicly revealed operations) also couldn't hurt, although eliminating all KGB intelligence gathering activities seems rather ASB.
In turn, the PRC really can't become more threatening until the 1950s. The one-child policy also seems like it could have been butterflied away, with consequent increase in China's population and hence apparent threat, if only thanks to the old "Yellow Peril" fears of Asian population explosion. More efforts to spread communism abroad driven by Chinese efforts, especially if publicly acknowledge and portrayed as efforts to sponsor "true communism" in opposition to Moscow's quiescence also could focus worries on China as the irrational dangerous actor compared to Russia's "rational" policies.
In turn, the PRC really can't become more threatening until the 1950s. The one-child policy also seems like it could have been butterflied away, with consequent increase in China's population and hence apparent threat, if only thanks to the old "Yellow Peril" fears of Asian population explosion. More efforts to spread communism abroad driven by Chinese efforts, especially if publicly acknowledge and portrayed as efforts to sponsor "true communism" in opposition to Moscow's quiescence also could focus worries on China as the irrational dangerous actor compared to Russia's "rational" policies.
ASB forum is that ways.
You'd need to somehow ramp up the PRC so fast that it at least exceeds the Soviet Union on at least some measures of global power (sans maybe economic power), which would probably be well into the 2010s at best, for any sort of TL remotely recognizable to OTL.
(If the USSR survives past 1991, the power imbalance is still big enough that the PRC will still be freenemies with the US and friends)
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Soviet power will still far surpass that of the PRC, and the Soviets are going to be a some level of hostile (at the very least, pointing thousands of nuclear weapons at the US and rest of NATO) with any sort of US recognizable to OTL.
Power doesn't mean that much in comparison with cray cray, just like how in OTL 21st century the DPRK has a similar perceived threat as the PRC despite having a slightly smaller economy and military.
Think of it like the difference between the mobster and the drugged up hobo behind the waffle house: the former can dish out some real heinous stuff and an order of magnitude more powerful but generally won't do things just because while the latter will certainly stab you out of the blue on an ordinary Tuesday night.
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I only see this if KMT wins civil war, and they industrialize fast, but a KMT China is probably more US friendly so idk.
Beria takes over the USSR after Stalin, begins Detente in the 50s and unifies Germany. Mao splits, gets nukes and turns China into North Korea with constant nuke threats to all its neighbours.
Ehy @Sorairo aren't you the guy who that wrote that very long timeline about Mussolini being in the Allies instead of the Axis?
mao takes a dive in a swimming pool and drowns in 1953.
To prevent infighting at such an inopportune time, the one leader who was universally admired - Soong Ching-ling - becomes the Chairwoman and the Head of State of the PRC. Her moderate plans win in the end, and the PRC starts its transition three and a half decades early alongside the other moderates who are not purged post-1956 in this situation like otl. Such a political development would have at least, economically, socially and militarily, transitioned the PRC into a real threat to both the ussr and usa by the mid-cold war at least.
To prevent infighting at such an inopportune time, the one leader who was universally admired - Soong Ching-ling - becomes the Chairwoman and the Head of State of the PRC. Her moderate plans win in the end, and the PRC starts its transition three and a half decades early alongside the other moderates who are not purged post-1956 in this situation like otl. Such a political development would have at least, economically, socially and militarily, transitioned the PRC into a real threat to both the ussr and usa by the mid-cold war at least.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wang_Dongxing what about this guy as a successor?
It probably won't be friendly to the U.S. The only reason it is an ally of the U.S. was that the KMT was pushed out of the mainland to Taiwan.
Chiang Kai Shek disliked the Americans and the British as he wanted foreigners out of China. The Americans meanwhile had a love-hate relationship with Chiang because the KMT was hopelessly corrupt and incompetent. It became so bad that President Truman even declared the KMT as a lost cause. Even General MacArthur mentioned against intervening on the Chinese Civil War because "anyone who wants to fight a ground war in China needs to have his head checked."
A Sino-American rivalry is inevitable as the Chinese have a Sinocentric view of the world. The large population and economic potential would rival both neighbors and global hegemons.
An example I like to use is @BigVic's Watching From San Diego TL, wherein the POD is Operation Valkyrie succeeds. Since World War II would then proceed differently compared to OTL, the butterflies caused by this incident ensures the KMT wins the Chinese Civil War. However, Yang Xishan takes over the ROC and announces to become the third bloc in the alternate Cold War; against both the U.S. and the USSR. The ROC becomes just as hostile as the PRC of OTL. It then forms the Beijing Pact with India (think of it as the OTL Non-Aligned Movement) and promises support for nations in Asia and Africa that are still seeking independence from European colonizers.
No matter who was in charge of China, whether KMT or CCP, or the moderates or hardliners, an invasion of Tibet and its annexation was always happening post civil war. it's the conditions of autonomy that would and could change afterwards. No faction recognized tibetan independence and neither did any country in the world.