AHC/WI: Pelindaba Nuclear Center (South Africa) Attacked

I don't think the Cubans or Angolans had any type of aircraft with a combat radius big enough to pull that off.

That leaves the Soviets. I cannot imagine what motive they would have had for doing so and I consider it to be an unlikely POD, but as the lead up to the Six Day War shows, wires do get crossed.

If they had, my guess is that South Africa would have gone all in within Angola. If they had gone for total war and exerted all of their force they could have taken Luanda. If that happens I would say UNITA wins. They had a vastly bigger base of support in the country than the MPLA did. Very possibly the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act gets delayed in the U.S. until the USSR falls. An actual war between the Soviets and South Africa would make the RSA look like a much more important anti-Communist bulwark, which would chill a lot of the conservative Democrat and Republican support that was needed to override Reagan's veto. This delays the end of apartheid at the very least. If it pushes the RSA to go hardliner it could very well turn into civil war when the Cold War ends.

If this happens before Mugabe is in charge expect them to decide that Zimbabwe-Rhodesia needs to be kept standing no matter what (they would have forced a black moderate government as in OTL though; Smith was just untenable). Reagan recognizes them when he becomes POTUS and that part of Africa would have looked a good deal better. They might give Samora Machel in Mozambique a silver or lead option to take aid and a withdrawal of support for RENAMO in exchange for going Sadat and switching sides or else have them throw their support fully behind RENAMO, possibly to the point of outright intervention.
 

Cook

Banned
Fuck, I saw that title and thought that it had been! I didn't see the 'WI'.

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Pelindaba Nuclear Center was where South Africa's nuclear weapons were developed, produced, and stored. What if it had been attacked by aircraft from Cuba, Angola, or the Soviet Union during the Border War period with Angola?

Why would they though?

This would be an unnecessary escalation in the war. And I'm not particularly clued up on South African military tech of the era but I would think there would certainly be aircraft ready to scramble to combat a potential aerial threat. And Pelindaba is only about 50km from Pretoria, this would see SA go all-in in Angola as Asp said. And perhaps see more explicit support for South Africa from the West.
 
Fuck, I saw that title and thought that it had been! I didn't see the 'WI'.

There was an attack.

But it was in 2007 and it wasn't by Commie aircraft.

Shortly after midnight on 8 November 2007, four armed men entered the facility and headed towards a control room in the eastern block.[4] According to the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (NECSA), the state-owned entity that runs the facility, the four "technically sophisticated criminals" deactivated several layers of security, including a 10,000-volt electrical fence, suggesting insider knowledge of the system. An off-duty emergency services officer, who was shot by the men after a brief struggle, triggered an alarm, alerting a nearby police station. The four attackers escaped the facility by the same way they had entered after 45 minutes alone in the compound. Though their images were captured on closed-circuit television, they were not detected by security officers because nobody was monitoring the cameras at the time. On 16 November, three suspects, between the ages of 17 and 28, were arrested by local police in connection with the incident but were later released. In response to the attack, NECSA suspended six Pelindaba security personnel, including the general manager of security and promised an "internal investigation which will cover culpability, negligence and improvements of Security Systems." [5]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pelindaba
 
Yes but neither were owned by the Angolan or Cuban Air Forces. Are we assuming others get involved?
 
But Delta Force, why would they do this? What is the POD that would make the Angolans or Cubans or whatever think: 'Let's escalate this little war into what could be the catalyst for World War III'?

I think you need a POD in South Africa, perhaps something similar to what happens in Latty Bond's Vortex. Have hardliners somehow take over the South African government and commit themselves to a total war, go all-out to wipe out the Commies in Angola. That might see a big enough escalation to see an attack on South African soil.
 
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