AHC/ WI Peace by exhaustion 1919-20

WI Germany and Austria were able to get more food from Russia and had gained more ground in the Spring 1918 offensive.

Could some move for armistice be asked for if the Allies had gradually been pushing the Germans out of occupied lands in the West.


Is there any chance of a more genereal Peace Movemeng growing

A Coal and steel Community 30 years earlier than otl
 
Austria Hungary was probably done politically by November 1914. Germany was running out of rubber for gas masks and this alone might have prevented the war from continuing into 1919. But assuming that the Germans played the west front better in 1918, delayed the allied counter offensive and stripped enough allied forces out of Italy, Salonika and Palestine to prevent counter offensives on those front the war could have continued until 1919.

This would have been historically interesting:
1) A major Allied offensive in 1919, with a major american effort, backed with a major increase in tanks and planes, and more forward thinking strategy on how to use them.
2) A major strategic air offensive by the allies
3) More effective mine barrages and the complete defeat of the u-boats.
4) The victory would be largely considered an "american victory" with ramifications at the final peace.
5) The east would be under german occupation for at least 6 more months with butterflies on how the russian civil war plays out.

However the central powers still loses. The Germans OTL always overestimated their military position so probably will never be able to find away to agree to any terms with the Allies until the Allies have reached the Rhine and its a complete surrender situation.

IMO the best chance for a better peace was between Amiens and Salonika in the August 10 - September 15th time period. Many (Most?) Germans leaders knew the game was up, The Austrians were begging the Germans to ask for a peace conference. Perhaps if Ludendorf was dismissed after Amiens this could have happened.

Potential September 1st cease fire agreement:

Germans evacuate France, Belgium, Alsace-Lorraine within 30 days, without demolitions or looting. German warships currently in Flanders or Austria to be surrendered, all other German warships go to Baltic sea.

Austrians evacuate Italy back to 1914 boundries, ports of Trieste, Pola and Cattaro to be surrendered to a radius of 30 miles, Entire Austrian fleet to be surrendered. Albania and Serbian Macedonia to be evacuated.

Turks surrender in Medina and Aden, Germans surrender in east Africa.

Otherwise lines remain as they are, Germans and Turks to not push further in the east.

All allied POWs to be returned within 60 days, All German enlisted POWS to be returned in 120 days (German NCOs and officers to be kept as POWs).

Peace conference with all parties present to begin in 30 days in Amsterdam.

This peace ceeds certain military advantages to the Allies, but the Central Powers still have powers of military resistance to be able to negotiate.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
WI Germany and Austria were able to get more food from Russia and had gained more ground in the Spring 1918 offensive.

Could some move for armistice be asked for if the Allies had gradually been pushing the Germans out of occupied lands in the West.


Is there any chance of a more genereal Peace Movemeng growing

A Coal and steel Community 30 years earlier than otl

If you just want to prolong the war but not buff the CP too much, then keeping Romania out of the war is the best POD. Maybe just have better diplomacy or keeping the pro-German king alive longer. Romania staying out gives about 1 million tons of cereal in 1917 and 1918, and gives A-H a sporting chance on surviving, which you also need. And you get use of the soldiers used in Romania for other fronts.

But whatever method you choose, you I am not so sure you get a negotiated peace. We have several threads on this topic and it comes up about once per month in some form. You need both more food and more soldiers so the Germans don't run out of reserves so fast. So lets assume they have 1-2 extra armies, enough food to keep A-H in the war, and Russia leaves on time.

In 1918, a better offensive can take Amiens and Harcourt before running out of momentum. The UK falls back on channel ports and has a stable line. The Germans capture a lot more supplies and likely do a second push towards Paris after a month or two pause. It will stall. The number of USA soldier will continue to grow and the USA will want to aggressively attack. I can see the will of the French to keep attacking becoming weak, but I see them just being a secondary player with the USA and the UK bearing the burden. Without the Germans forcing peace in 1918, the USA/UK will make steady progress until the Germans run out of reserves in 1919 or 1920, which will happen. While a early peace deal makes sense, I can't see it happening in the scenario you list. The USA taking well over a million casualties has a profound impact on the USA and the peace deal looks different, the peace terms will have to be harsh to justify the lost Americans, French, and Englishmen. You will see a different scenario in Russia.
 
I was doing a thread like this recently. I want to add that I think that the Germans would either have gotten their colonies back or they would be given concessions in Central and Eastern Europe. By concessions, I mean they would have been allowed to draw up the map of the ex Austro-Hungarian empire largely on their terms, would be able to tacitly create a sphere of influence (kind of like the way the Russians treated the Warsaw pact) and would possibly even be allowed to merge with parts of Austria. Alternatively, Germany might have an actual say in the new arrangement in the Middle East. What that would look like I have no idea, but if Germany holds good cards at the armistice, it could be an option. Turkey will certainly not be given the Arab territories and this is some very important land.
 

Deleted member 1487

If you just want to prolong the war but not buff the CP too much, then keeping Romania out of the war is the best POD. Maybe just have better diplomacy or keeping the pro-German king alive longer. Romania staying out gives about 1 million tons of cereal in 1917 and 1918, and gives A-H a sporting chance on surviving, which you also need. And you get use of the soldiers used in Romania for other fronts.

Keeping Romania out of the war keeps Ludendorff out of power and Falkenhayn in power; that means the US entering the war just went way down, because Falkenhayn was not willing to risk going to war with the US by 1917. Plus no Hindenburg program means that materially Germany is better off, doesn't suffer the coal crisis, the Turnip Winter, nor has major labor unrest resulting from Ludendorff trying to militarize factories and labor. Then you could well see the war end in exhaustion, but sooner than 1919 because the Allies would lack US money to keep going, as we've discussed time and time again in these types of threads.

Romania was a serious game changer for a number of reasons, one that really cost the CPs the war.

Once the US is in the war, its very hard to see the CPs not losing. Of course the Germans can hurt the Allies badly if Romania stays out and Ludendorff doesn't achieve power, but the tide had turned. There was just no way that a peace by exhaustion was feasible, just as it is very implausible that the US would take 1 million casualties. Even if they did they had millions more and would fight until the bitter end. Remember IOTL the US was planning for more casualties than that and a war lasting into 1920 that would see Berlin occupied and Germany forcibly conquered.

@Catspoke: I don't think AH was done in 1914 in anyway. By 1916 though it was very much mortally wounded. Still Germany can keep her propped up post-war if Romania doesn't enter the war and the CPs aren't defeated.
 

Deleted member 1487

Just curious Wiking do you have source for that ?

After this page of the German Historical Museum he was for USW .

http://www.dhm.de/lemo/html/biografien/FalkenhaynErich/

In conjunction with the Verdun attack. After that failed he changed his tune once the Somme turned into the brutal blood bath that it did along with Brusilov Offensive. IIRC this book (http://www.amazon.com/The-First-World-War-Interpretation/dp/0198202792) mentions his changing stance. Also perhaps this (http://www.amazon.com/German-Strategy-Verdun-Robert-Foley/dp/0521044367).
 
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