AHC WI Paul Martin Wins 2006 Canadian Election

Merger has nothing to do with it, MacKay is more flexible, and Prentice proved his duplicity in Alberta IOTL.

Perhaps, but aren't there more than 3 candidates available? In the other thread, Bernard Lord and Jim Harris were mentioned as possible leaders, as was Rob Nicholson(less likely) and Tony Clement. Though I do think MacKay has a good chance.
 
Lord nearly lost '02 and did lose '06. I'll defer to CT on whether that may be butterflied. Mike Harris: too old and can't win his province. Clement had already lost 2 leadership races and given how narrow his OTL win was, would have lost his seat ITTL.
 
Lord nearly lost '02 and did lose '06. I'll defer to CT on whether that may be butterflied. Mike Harris: too old and can't win his province. Clement had already lost 2 leadership races and given how narrow his OTL win was, would have lost his seat ITTL.

He nearly lost in '03, and that was because of the issue of car insurance, if memory serves. Yes he lost in 2006, but he didn't lose the popular vote. I'm obviously biased because he was my Premier, but the guy was often touted despite his close call in 2003 and even since his defeat in 2006 he was touted as a possible MP at every election, especially in 2011.

The guy is far from perfect. He typically won't go for something unless his family is on his side (the reason he never went federal) or if it's closer to a sure thing. I honestly don't know if he'd go for the leadership. I don't think he'd go for the leadership in 2006 consider both the above criteria would be against him. He might wait a while on the sidelines like OTL.

The guy is still frequently mentioned as a leadership possibility, almost a decade after held elected office, and that says something. He's still only 49, plenty of time yet.

However if Lord wins in 2006, which is very much a possibility, then we're talking about an entirely different ball game.
 
Which bigger names though? Not happily retired dinosaurs like Tobin and McKenna. Dion or Rae might be leader. On the Tory side, you could see Kenney, MacKay, Prentice. Ambrose is too junior. If Kenney decides not to run, then MacKay could become leader.

But there's a wider group of people that could be used at this pont. Jim Prentice, Stockwell Day, John Baird, and much more.
 
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