Inspired by my doing a little reading on Lest Darkness Fall. How possible is it for the Ostrogothic Kingdom of Italy to avoid its decline and eventual fall to the Byzantine Empire, and to indeed expand, perhaps taking North Africa west of Egypt, all or part of Hispania, and all or part of Gaul? Assuming they can do it, what are the knock-on effects for the history of Western Europe and the Byzantine Empire?
AHC/WI: Ostrogothic Kingdom Reunites Western Roman Empire
- Thread starter Mr_Fanboy
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No, it would definitely be more (ancient) Roman in nature and culture than the HRE. It was the Gothic War that booted the Ostrogoths out that really wrecked Italia and made it more Germanic or at least less Roman.
I would disagree, the issue with any post-Roman state is that it didnt have the literary culture, which is what kept formal Latin alive. If you can invent a TL where Ostrogoths become Nicene, as if they arent Nicene then they would be working against all the classically trained people, and where they establish a centralised Romanised bureaucracy, along with a formal Latin literary culture, then I will believe it is possible.
Relatively speaking a nation founded as an immediate successor state of Rome in its traditional heartland is going to be far more Roman than a Germanic nation that began in Germania, Romanized through the more loosely Romantic EDIT: Gauls and then conquered their way to Italy.
I’m also not sure why all of the classically trained people wouldn’t just convert to Arianism in a century or else put pressure on the Ostrogoths to convert to Nicene Christianity?
The thing is that the Ostrogoths preserved many Roman traditions that were wiped out or changed following the Byzantine conquest. The HRE did not have any Roman traditions to preserve in the first place.
EDIT: I get your point that the Ostrogothic Kingdom wasn’t really a Roman state, and I guess that’s true, but it was still more Roman than the HRE
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I've seen a few Ostrogothic timelines, but most seem (underatandably) to result in a Germanic northern Italy. This is exceedingly unlilely- one need only look to France, or the Lombards,to see the most likely result, which is to say probably assimilaitoon, assuming of course the small matter of religion can be overcome. If OTL Italy, which was subject to devastating, repeated invasion, and consistent German dominion from the Lombards (or argably the Ostrogoths) up until the 19th century, didn't go full German then it's difficult to see how a surviving and prosperous independent Italy would either.
Now that said a surviving Ostrogothic kingdom does offer an interesting possibility for an alt HRE analogue, and one rather less slapdash about it.
Now that said a surviving Ostrogothic kingdom does offer an interesting possibility for an alt HRE analogue, and one rather less slapdash about it.
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Unlikely the survival of Nicene Christianity in the West was because most of the Goths didn't much care about the religion of their subjects, as their subjects so outnumbered them. Similarly, @cmakk1012 said the classically trained people would convert. This is wrong, the classically trained people were mainly monks and Priests, hardly on the frontline of conversion.
The Ostrogoths taking Iberia is actually suprisingly likely, from 511-526 Theoderic did serve as regent for the young Visigothic King Amalaric (who he had installed). Say this regency goes more favourably than in our timeline, resulting in a Visigothic Kingdom that's essentially a vassal of the Ostrogothic Kingdom.
North Africa is difficult though because Theoderic actually created an alliance with the Vandal Kingdom. Once Justinian comes knocking there's no way for the Goths to get it back, unless they take it from Rome if the Arabs become a problem in this timeline. Although to do this the Ostrogoths would need an excellent navy, which never was one of their strengths.
At some point the Ostrogoths would probably convert to Orthodoxy like the Visigoths did in our timeline, the Arians in Italy were simply too few to sustain it as the state religion.
With no Gothic War, the city of Rome would continue as the unquestioned center of the West for many more centuries, as it's population and infrastructure would be much more intact. Ravenna might even become a competitor for the title of "Third Rome" considering the amount of money Theoderic and his successors invested in their capital to make it fit it's Imperial status.
North Africa is difficult though because Theoderic actually created an alliance with the Vandal Kingdom. Once Justinian comes knocking there's no way for the Goths to get it back, unless they take it from Rome if the Arabs become a problem in this timeline. Although to do this the Ostrogoths would need an excellent navy, which never was one of their strengths.
At some point the Ostrogoths would probably convert to Orthodoxy like the Visigoths did in our timeline, the Arians in Italy were simply too few to sustain it as the state religion.
With no Gothic War, the city of Rome would continue as the unquestioned center of the West for many more centuries, as it's population and infrastructure would be much more intact. Ravenna might even become a competitor for the title of "Third Rome" considering the amount of money Theoderic and his successors invested in their capital to make it fit it's Imperial status.
I think it's possible for the Ostrogoths to eventually get North Africa back, just have it not be re-conquered by the East. Maybe Justinian doesn't send Belisarius, maybe Belisarius makes a critical mistake, having the Vandals defeat the Eastern Romans may make Justinian rethink his desire to reunite east and west. This may give the Ostrogoths time to really establish themselves in Italy, and spare the peninsula the damage inflicted during the Gothic War. I can see Ostrogothic Italy following a similar route as France, maybe uniting with the Visigoths at some point and conquering the Vandal Kingdom later on.
Getting past the Byzantines, what would be the long-term prospects of an Ostogothic Italy, combined with Hispania and North Africa, vis a vis the Franks? Eventually the two states would likely be vying for much of the same territory in Gaul, no?
In the short term Justinian would probably concentrate more on the east, keeping a wary eye on the Persians. In both the short and long term the empire may be even more alien to the people of western Europe as they are less involved in the west. Also consider that Byzantium doesn't have the bleeding ulcer in the Italy and Africa to contend with, they'll have to worry about their eastern border and their northern Danube border and that's a hell of a lot more defensible. Overall I think of all the blood and treasure that is saved if Justinian, and his heirs, decide to leave the west more or less to their own devices.
Well the largest effect would be that it could potentially butterfly the Arab Conquests, which is a pretty big one. The Empire would not be overstretched, it would have a healthy economy and a strong army. Depending on how things go with the Persians, the power vaccum that created the Arab Conquests may not necessarily take place, and this alone changes ALOT.
The Slavic invasion of the Roman Balkans is probably quickly repulsed without the losses from the Gothic War weakening the Romans, though the Plague of Justinian would still be a problem. The Ostrogoths retain control of Dalmatia, so could repulse the Slavic invasion of that region as well. Fewer Slavs in the Balkans, more Slavs in the Carpathian basin. Maybe the Avars end up assimilating into the Slavic population like the OTL Bulgars, or the Khaganate might collapse into a bunch of minor principalities, or maybe Greater Moravia gets bigger. Stronger Roman presence in the Balkans and Carpathian basin might also stop any steppe nomads like the Bulgars and Magyars from invading the region. Likely end result: Slavs from the Rus to the Danube.
Emperor Maurice - should he come to power, which I'm going to assume he would for the same of simplicity - has an easier time pushing the border with the Avar Khaganate north of the Danube and restoring Roman control over the Balkans. The Avars suffer a worse loss than OTL, possibly collapsing. The Slavs already in the Balkans could be assimilated, especially with Maurice's plans to send settlers from Armenia to the area. Importantly for the eastern territories, this greater level of success and more resources being available means that Emperor Maurice is probably not overthrown by a military coup as in OTL. This means Phocas does not become Emperor, which means there's (probably) no war between the Romans and Sassanids, leaving both much more capable of dealing with the Caliphate should it emerge. Rome retains more of both its Balkan and Levantine territories.
The best POD is certainly to get rid of Belisarius, in some way: the best opportunity is to reverse the outcome at the battle of Dara. Even if Belisarius does not die on the battlefield, his career is likely to end there. Incidentally, a worse outcome of the Persian war (or even a continuation of the war with the Persians making inroad in Syria) might lead to a successful attempt to remove Justinian from the throne (an earlier Nika, which ITTL succeeds). After all, Justinian was a Thracian and became emperor only because his uncle Justin was the commander of the Constantinople troops and usurped the throne when Anastasius died in 518.
This gives the Ostrogothic kingdom a very good chance to put its house in order, although the succession of old Theodoric will be always a complicated business, and might easily lead to a civil war. This means that the successors of Theodoric will have a couple of generations to grow in strength and find a better accommodation with the Latin-speaking Italians (sooner or later, the Longobards will come knocking, since they will be pushed out of Pannonia by migrations from the steppes: the Gothic kingdom might be strong enough to keep them out of Italy, or possibly even to absorb them).
At this stage the history will be completely changed, and the more years pass from the POD, the more difficult will be to speculate what is going to happen.
It is most likely that Justinian's plague is going to happen ITTL too (although it is not a given), that Visigoths and Ostrogoths will form some kind of union,in particular if the Ostrogothic kingdom remains in the hands of the direct descendants of the house of Amal, and that the Vandals will have to ask for help from them to keep at bay the Berber tribes.
I would also bet that the Arian heresy will not continue for more than a couple of generations or three (even adding together Ostrogoths, Visigoths, Longobards and Vandals, their numbers are too low and the prestige of Nicean creed will grow with time).
If Ostrogoths and Visigoths join in some form, it makes sense for them to keep southern Gallia, which would allow a land connection.
The Franks at this stage are still in Northern Gallia, and I cannot speculate what is going to happen: maybe they will graciously agree of a border somewhere in Gallia, maybe they will be constantly at war.
In the same way I cannot speculate on what is going to happen in the ERE and in Persia: the most likely possibility is that their war will go on at intervals, and certainly their behavior and fortunes will depend on what will do the nomads coming out of Central Asia.
The Arabs will also - sooner or later - come knocking, but it is very unlikely that both empires will be as weak as they were IOTL at the point of crisis: probably the Arabs will be absorbed as foederati or mercenaries, and used to settle the border between Persia and the ERE.
This gives the Ostrogothic kingdom a very good chance to put its house in order, although the succession of old Theodoric will be always a complicated business, and might easily lead to a civil war. This means that the successors of Theodoric will have a couple of generations to grow in strength and find a better accommodation with the Latin-speaking Italians (sooner or later, the Longobards will come knocking, since they will be pushed out of Pannonia by migrations from the steppes: the Gothic kingdom might be strong enough to keep them out of Italy, or possibly even to absorb them).
At this stage the history will be completely changed, and the more years pass from the POD, the more difficult will be to speculate what is going to happen.
It is most likely that Justinian's plague is going to happen ITTL too (although it is not a given), that Visigoths and Ostrogoths will form some kind of union,in particular if the Ostrogothic kingdom remains in the hands of the direct descendants of the house of Amal, and that the Vandals will have to ask for help from them to keep at bay the Berber tribes.
I would also bet that the Arian heresy will not continue for more than a couple of generations or three (even adding together Ostrogoths, Visigoths, Longobards and Vandals, their numbers are too low and the prestige of Nicean creed will grow with time).
If Ostrogoths and Visigoths join in some form, it makes sense for them to keep southern Gallia, which would allow a land connection.
The Franks at this stage are still in Northern Gallia, and I cannot speculate what is going to happen: maybe they will graciously agree of a border somewhere in Gallia, maybe they will be constantly at war.
In the same way I cannot speculate on what is going to happen in the ERE and in Persia: the most likely possibility is that their war will go on at intervals, and certainly their behavior and fortunes will depend on what will do the nomads coming out of Central Asia.
The Arabs will also - sooner or later - come knocking, but it is very unlikely that both empires will be as weak as they were IOTL at the point of crisis: probably the Arabs will be absorbed as foederati or mercenaries, and used to settle the border between Persia and the ERE.
Boethius and Cassiodorus would disagree on both accounts. That the Ostrogoths themselves outsourced this work to Roman aristocrats doesn’t take away from the fact that it was still being done. Really, take out the religious angle, and its not all that fundamentally different than the barracks emperors of the 3rd century.
That said, the Ostrogoths would be much better positioned if they accepted Nicene Christianity. As a rough outline: Athalric’s regency goes better for him and the kingdom, and he comes of age as a staunch Romanophile and pro-Byzantine monarch during Justinian’s reign.
This allows Ostrogothic Italy to weather Justinian’s ambitions as a powerful ally, and likely a mediator between the Empire amd the other post-Roman states. Sheer demographics should keep Justinian in check once the plague arrives.
The big unknown is the Lombards, but I could see them going into the Balkans, particularly as Constantinople reels from the plague and then the likely wars with Persia.
From this point, ultimately we need two things: The Amalings need to convert to Nicene Christianity and they need to capitalize on Byzantine struggles against the Persians and Arabs. If they can position themselves to secure Iberia and then defend North Africa before the Arabs can take it, they’re in a really good spot.
It doesn’t hurt that Theodoric presented himself in an Imperial light anyway. That attitude, plus a dominant position in the Western Med, leaves little left to do but have to guts to make the de facto de jure.
Hell, depending on how badly Constantinople is doing, they might be very receptive in order to get a powerful ally.
A lot depends on how the Goths take up the mantle of Roman Empire but the rulers need to at least convert to the Nicene Creed and use Latin as the administrative language.
Any surviving Gothic will be written in the Roman script. My thoughts on this haven't really changed since my post in the interesting Amalingian Empire thread by @DanMcCollum:
Any surviving Gothic will be written in the Roman script. My thoughts on this haven't really changed since my post in the interesting Amalingian Empire thread by @DanMcCollum:
Sorry for the delay on this.
Some Thoughts on the Evolution of Gothic in TTL
A) Writing out ATL Old Gothic
Whilst some argument can be made for some retention of the Gothic Alphabet in TTL since these Goths are now firmly in the Roman World instead of the periphery I can see them adopting the Roman Script.
Transcribing ATL Old Gothic is fairly similar to OTL modern transcription but with these particulars:
/kw/ would be written [qu]
/hw/ would be [hu]
Since the distinction of /j,w/ is much disputed OTL and not really distinguished the in Vulgar Romances we can be cautious and write them [i,u]
/ŋ/ in clusters would be written [n]
/θ/ may be maintained asbut perhaps becoming [th] when lost. Some case can be made for borrowing [þ] from the AS dialects but any Latin will likely use [th] as they did for the AngloSaxons.
The 5 short vowels are fairly consistent with Roman [a, e, i, o, u] (cf [a, aí, i, aú, u] ).
The long vowels are trickier. Mostly I'd expect them to be doubled and subject to how strong Latin/Romance influences are - eg [ee, oo] vs [ei, ou]; /i:/ could variously be [i, ie, y].
Ironically in this TL it will be sorted out whether 6thC Gothic kept the /ai/ and /au/ dipthongs since the expected digraphs are used for /e, o/; they're often written [ái, áu] OTL where they could be used.
B) Phonological Changes
Whilst your notes indicate that a language called Gothic survives to modern ATL times I get the impression of ebb and flow, and bilingualism, across OTL North Italy before standardisation and demarcation sets in. This I think it worthwhile to consider the influence of Latin (incl Church Latin) and the regional Romance dialects [1]. Perhaps a good analogy could be the development of Old Franconian to Dutch; though the effect of Norman on Late Old English woudl also help.
So I see these phonological changes:
i) palatalisation of [c, g] /k, g/ before /i,j/ and most /e/ to /tʃ, dʒ/. Thus /ki, gi/ would be written (like Italian) [chi, ghi].
ii) loss of /θ/ as a separate phoneme - elised medially and assimilated in clusters
iii) further fricatisation of medial [b, g] /β, ɣ/ to /v, h/
iv) "schwa-isation" and loss of unstressed vowels
v) loss of medial /h/
C) Grammatical Changes
As with other Germanic languages we will see regularisation of word order, levelling of the verb and noun cases, and creation of articles from determiners. How much depends on the influence of native and biligual Latin/Romance speakers. Do you want retention of the unique Class VII verbs? Dual tenses? etc
[1] Some form of Gallo/North-Italian will probably exist - perhaps as Veneto-Istrian or Illyrian?
