AHC WI: NZ PM Roger Douglas

Your challenge, should you accept it, is with no PoD earlier than the 1984 New Zealand election to get https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Douglas to be Prime Minister of New Zealand What would be the effects of that? would Ruthanasia come early, the GMFI (guaranteed Family Minimum Income-which Douglas proposed in 1987 but was rejected as a fiscal risk by Lange) and the flat tax get passed, and if so how long would these policies last-permanently, till 1991 or till 1993 or 1996 or even later? Would Labour fare worse electorally than IOTL, the same or as Michael Bassett and the Rogernomes argued fare much better? What if?
 
Sorry mate the only thing I know about NZ is that the RNZAF didn't get F16s and sheep have given way to dairy because of free trade agreements. Don't feel bad, nobody knows anything about Australian stuff here either.
 
I don't think Roger Douglas could become PM with a POD on or after the 1984 election simply because once he was Finance Minister and embarked upon Rogernomics his reformist impulses would run far ahead of the party and he could not carry the support of the party room.

Now, if Douglas became leader in 1983 after Rowling, he would probably be PM in place of Lange. However, once he started to implement Rogernomics as PM and as leader try to go further than in OTL (implement GFMI, flat tax or Ruthanasia style IR or welfare reforms) then Labour would most likely split.

In OTL Labour had a traumatic reaction to Rogernomics. In opposition afterwards Labour almost lost its major party status to the break-away left-wing Alliance. With Douglas as leader this possibility would probably increase.

Of course would this split occur while Douglas is in office? How would Douglas react to losing a leadership ballot while in Government?

Would he try to hang on in office a la Billy Hughes or Joe Lyons did in Australia by taking their supporters and joining the conservatives in a coalition?

Would Douglas and his supporters join National outright? If so would NZ First arrive early? These are all interesting possibilities.

As an interesting segway to a previous Kiwi WI you posed. Douglas as PM may leave MMP in the bottom drawer. FPTP in fractured party systems provide fascinating dynamics.
 
I think it's likely TTL Labour would make OTL Labour, perhaps in 1990 it'd get less than 10 seats. The flat tax coukd be retained by National, so in 1993 maybe the Alliance wins. That would be an interesting TL. The GMFI could also survive. I think Douglas would damage Labour significantly, but him being leader meabs there might be unexpected butterflues in term 1.
 
At some point there would be a reaction to Rogernomics/Ruthanasia. So an Alliance govt would ride that wave. However in office it would moderate and thats where the schism would begin with moderates and true believers at odds with each other.
 
Kiwi's don't do rebellion all that well alas.

So one side effect is possibly a greater ''bugger this I'm out of here'' than was actually seen.

In other words emigration increases,

So the major benefactor in this scenario would be Australia and to a lesser extent the U.K, U.S.A ,Canada etc.

While those economies are boosted [primarily Australia] then the Kiwi economy shrinks more than it did IOTL

Leading to even greater social and economic disruption.

At which point political decisions are made.

Stop?

Reverse?

Carry on?

Carry on slower?

The first two are the end of Rogernomics and the end of all those who supported him.

The third does not just split the Labour Party it fragments it....probably permanently.

Which leaves door number four and possible alliance with National.

All doors lead away from Labours traditional heartland of course much faster than IOTL

I mean what do you say to these now lost voters if options one and two are taken?

Possibly

We had a sudden rush of blood to the head /were drunk/ we were kidnapped by aliens?

Of course options three and four it doesn't matter ,you either don't have a party anymore or you've turned blue and they won't vote for you anyway.

So whatever happens eventualy there is a change at the Beehive

Then what?

Do we get a faster change to MMP?

Maybe get our upper chamber back?

Binding referendums?

But as I said no rebellion
 
The only time I see Douglas outright winning leadership of Labour would be if the Fish and Chip Brigade decided he should be the one to oppose Bill Rowling and not David Lange.

We also saw historically that he couldn't beat Lange on a leadership ballot, even when Lange was at a low point, so it would've had to be against Rowling.
 
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