OK.Make it so that Emperor Zhezong survives.If he survives,the accession of his irresponsible younger brother would be butterflied away.Emperor Zhezong was a fairly capable ruler,but he died in his early twenties.He can probably curb a large degree of the corruption that's been going on in Huizong's reign.That probably means that the army's in much better shape to conquer the Beijing region and repulse potential Jin invasion.
Song Dynasty might live longer and stronger.The Beijing region provides good war horses.The Tanguts also seemed to be pretty screwed.Even in Zhezong's reign,and that of the highly irresponsible Huizong,the Tanguts seemed to be on the way down,with them frequently losing wars and territory to the Song Dynasty.OK.
Also, what would the consequences of this have been?
It's precisely because of this attitude that the Song Dynasty under-performs.The truth is that the Song Dynasty wasn't that ambitious at all for a large part of it's existence.For the most part,it was trying to win through sucker punches rather than try and seriously bolster the strength of it's forces.By the time it launched a war with the Khitans in the 1100s,it was when the Khitan Empire was clearly collapsing from the Jurchen revolt.The annual tribute payments generally help to strengthen enemy forces--who can always potentially use the money you paid against you.For the most part of the Song Dynasty's existence,it was paying large tributes to states clearly much weaker than it on paper--entities who were less wealthier and populated than it was.By the time the Song Dynasty finally declared war on the Khitans in the 1100s,they have been paying tribute to the Khitans for more than one hundred years....This was largely unimaginable in previous unified dynasties.Rather than not having the resources to conquer the Khitans and the Tanguts,the problem was that they did not have the political will for the most part to do it--as the officials were afraid of influential military officers,not to mention not having the will to devote resources to maintain a powerful army.Previous dynasties and succeeding ones like the Ming Dynasty have occupied North-West China successfully.The Song Dynasty was actually the wealthiest of all dynasties and had a much higher population than previous dynasties.This seems to be over-simple-fication, you cannot blame dynasty raise and fall on one or two bad Emperor. Wang Anshi attempted New Reforms seems to indicated that Song dynasty were in trouble, otherwise there would be no need for large change.
Northern Song had problem with over-ambition, there are strong 'war faction' who dream of conquest of Liao and Hi-Hsia. while it did not have enough resources, financial and military, to do such thing.
even if conquest of Hi-Hsia success, what happen then ? Song now have desert border that need to be defended, and border with Tibet would be enlarged. Internally, success would breed over-confidence in provoking another war with Liao which would only result in defeat.
for Northern Song to succeed, it had to limit its ambition, perhaps several disastrous battle with Liao and Hi-Hsia might push for co-existence ? Annual tribute payment is costly, but war (and horse breeding program) is even more costly.
This. From my understanding the Song Empire did not trust nor value having a military industrial complex. As a result they were much weaker than you'd think they'd be by looking at the resources and manpower under their control.they did not have the political will for the most part to do it--as the officials were afraid of influential military officers,not to mention not having the will to devote resources to maintain a powerful army.
Basically,things were so bad that a lowly bureaucrat can actually give orders to a general who's much higher ranked than the bureaucrat....This. From my understanding the Song Empire did not trust nor value having a military industrial complex. As a result they were much weaker than you'd think they'd be by looking at the resources and manpower under their control.
The Khitans controlled the vital region of You and Yun--which is crucial for the defense of China.If You and Yun's controlled by a foreign power,that foreign power can cross the Yan Mountains unimpeded.It's also a great horse breeding ground that the Song Dynasty needs.There's also the fact that You and Yun were traditionally Chinese provinces with a Han majority.So attacking them is a must,problem was that their army's completely inept and couldn't conquer You and Yun.This led to dishonesty on part of the Jurchens,who managed to conquer You and Yun themselves but charged the Song Dynasty for it.By the time the Song forces got to You and Yun,they discovered that the Jurchens had stripped the two regions of their population making it indefensible.I can think of two ways.
One, is not invading Khitans. This was completely pointless, as Khitans had had little that you could tax even if you won total victory against them. To make it worse, Song kept betraying their allies Jurchen in most inept fashion, and got invaded for their stupidity.
Two, is victorious war of reconquest against Jurchens. I don't remember anyones involved names, but emperor didn't like his best general, even though he kept winning battles, and that general was later murdered by bureacrat who later ended up negotiating treaty that sold out northern China to Jurchens. So, have initial assasination against poor general fail, emperor gets annoyed at bureacrat and has him killed, Song keep winning battles until Jurchen are driven out.
Indeed it was weird.Recently,I've come into notice a South Song Dynasty general by the name of Meng Gong(孟珙).In the 1230s,when the Mongols first turned on the Song Dynasty following their joint defeat of the Jurchens,this guy was given command of the majority of the Song forces.He managed to not only smash the Mongol attempt to conquer areas south of the Huai river,but reconquer territory lost to the Mongols during the invasion.I want to push back against the idea of decrepit Song. They held out against the Mongols for decades, something no other power did. Was it just Chinese geography? Maybe, but the Ming fell very, very quickly to the Qing.
Honestly,it was hardly a good peace--the Song Empire had to pay a massive tribute annually to stop the Khitans from attempting to reach Kaifeng.The importance of the Yan Mountains as a frontier cannot be overstated.Kaifeng along with most Chinese cities in the north China situated in a massive plain.From a defensive point of view,they were extremely difficult to defend--which forced the Song Dynasty to recruit a massive professional army whose size was unseen in previous dynasties.This massive army was a heavy drain on resources.The mountains acts as a force amplifier and restricts the routes where the nomads invade from.It's a major reason why the Ming Dynasty chose this region as the site for their capital.Khitans controlled those regions for 100+ years, and Song did fine. They were hardly that important, but Song backstabbed Khitans after century of mutual peace, for no reason other than 'quick, victorious war', and thats all that needs to be said about it.
Previous dynasties and succeeding ones like the Ming Dynasty have occupied North-West China successfully.The Song Dynasty was actually the wealthiest of all dynasties and had a much higher population than previous dynasties.
Two, is victorious war of reconquest against Jurchens. I don't remember anyones involved names, but emperor didn't like his best general, even though he kept winning battles, and that general was later murdered by bureacrat who later ended up negotiating treaty that sold out northern China to Jurchens. So, have initial assasination against poor general fail, emperor gets annoyed at bureacrat and has him killed, Song keep winning battles until Jurchen are driven out.
The Khitans controlled the vital region of You and Yun--which is crucial for the defense of China.If You and Yun's controlled by a foreign power,that foreign power can cross the Yan Mountains unimpeded.It's also a great horse breeding ground that the Song Dynasty needs.There's also the fact that You and Yun were traditionally Chinese provinces with a Han majority.So attacking them is a must,problem was that their army's completely inept and couldn't conquer You and Yun.
Then again,Meng Gong's victories were largely the result of him fighting defensively by taking advantage of the riverine geography of southern China and counterattack where appropriate.Song forces couldn't fight well at all against the Mongols when they were north of the Huai river.
Honestly,it was hardly a good peace--the Song Empire had to pay a massive tribute annually to stop the Khitans from attempting to reach Kaifeng.The importance of the Yan Mountains as a frontier cannot be overstated.Kaifeng along with most Chinese cities in the north China situated in a massive plain.From a defensive point of view,they were extremely difficult to defend--which forced the Song Dynasty to recruit a massive professional army whose size was unseen in previous dynasties.This massive army was a heavy drain on resources.The mountains acts as a force amplifier and restricts the routes where the nomads invade from.It's a major reason why the Ming Dynasty chose this region as the site for their capital.
It is highly likely that the generals might launch a coup or rebel in the early years of the Song Dynasty,but by the 1000-1100s,this is downright paranoia.The Song Dynasty,unlike previous dynasties have essentially segregated military command from provincial administration.The state was also overcentralized due to all taxes,apart from expenses required to pay for local administration,being mandated by law to be fully sent to the capital--which rendered provinces underdeveloped and having a much reduced risk of rebelling under some governor.Wealth is not identical with military powers. a Dynasty / Regime capability depend on many thing, including :
- political will among elite and population to wage war
- method of controlling military officers from betrayals
- willingness of populace to be taxed for war
- military tradition
- economic resources needed for war (including warhorses)
- etc
Song is lacking many thing that Tang, Ming and Qing have, it don't mean its 'worse' than those dynasties, it just means it infrastructure (law, tax, tradition, etc) is non-suited to wage Northern war. And it is impossible to fundamentally change nature of dynasty without re-waging civil war and dynasty founding.
Chinese dynasty often heavily influenced by its founding Emperor, and after that changing relations with landowner, official and populations concerning tax and law is extremely hard to do. It is essentially 'fixed' and difficult to change without violence.
That's my impression as well.There were three other great generals during the period as well,like Han Shizong,but Yue Fei for undeservedly gets most of the credit for the Song victories during the period due to Yue Fei getting propped up as a martyr in posterity.I agree that re-conquering all Song territory was probably unachievable given that the Song Dynasty was already badly exhausted--but I think that the terms of the subsequent peace treaty was what made it really bad.By the time the treaty was signed,the Song forces made it as far as the outer skirts of Kaifeng--yet the Song Dynasty decided to abandon all territory it reconquered north of the Huai River,not to mention pay a massive tribute(much larger than the one sent to the Khitans) and acknowledge that the Jin Dynasty was the Song Dynasty's superior.Apparently,Yue Fei spent most of his life fighting peasant rebels rather than fighting the Jin like the other three generals.My reading of Yue Fei is that his Legend is mostly nationalistic myth, propagated to foster Chinese nationalism.
I think while he is tactically competent general, he is strategically-deficient warmongering general who push for unwinnable war.
I have no idea why you insist that the Sixteen Prefectures cannot be captured.There were only three attempts in the entirety of the Song Dynasty's existence.The first two were led by the militarily incompetent Zhao Guangyi.The third time happened in the 1120s when the Khitan Empire was clearly collapsing.The bulk of the Khitan forces were tied up/destroyed by the Jurchens with few troops remaining in the Beijing region.By all accounts,the 1120s expedition was badly prepared and poorly led,with the Song forces making multiple mistakes.Yet,it was actually aided by local Han elite who were eager to defect to the Song Dynasty and almost succeeded in conquering the region.Even with the multiple defeats of the expedition,the Song forces were able to overrun Beijing and only lost because the Song forces started to plunder the city whilst the Khitan forces took the opportunity to regroup and counterattack.I see Sixteen Prefecture as uncapturable, Song repeatedly defeated while attempted to do so. And while population is Han Chinese, they have rule under barbarian for many years, there no evidence they would actually be sympathetic to Song.
The Song Dynasty gave up conquering the Sixteen Prefectures for over 100 years--choosing a policy of appeasement with the Khitans until the Khitan Empire was clearly collapsing.Land north of the Huai wasn't impossible to defend--if it was impossible to defend from the Khitans,the Khitans would have overrun such lands long ago.Countries don't simply choose payment over direct territorial conquest for no reason.The truth was that the Khitans lacked the capacity to conquer further Song territory.One has to remember that the whole Chanyuan Treaty where the Song Dynasty agreed to pay the Khitans tribute was only made after the Song Dynasty repelled the Khitan offensive--the Song Dynasty just decided that it's more worthwhile to just pay off the Khitans than to get another confrontation.Problem was that the Song government grew complacent after the treaty and thought that the Khitans wouldn't actually invade if they kept up with the payments.This led to a period in the decline in military strength--which resulted in the Khitans making even greater tribute demands--threatening war if their goals were not reached.Song massive waste of money and resources is because they refuse to give up land north of Huai, and over-ambition in capturing Sixteen Prefecture which cause unnecessary wars. if they give up on capturing Sicteen Prefecture, relation with Liao will improve much better, and there is no need to have massive armies north of Huai. Song proto-Nationalism is fundamentally unsuited with its time.
Liao Tribute in my view is payment for Song occupying land north of Huai river, which is impossible to defend from Liao.
if they don't want to pay tribute, the reasonable thing would be evacuating those areas.
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in short : my view on Song is similar with 'Modern Germany recapturing Prussia' . They may have raw economic resources and historical precedent to do that, but its Society and Government had changed so much that doing that is self-defeating.
Countries have no will on their own, that's Europa Universalis fallacy. However, people running those countries, do.The Song Dynasty gave up conquering the Sixteen Prefectures for over 100 years--choosing a policy of appeasement with the Khitans until the Khitan Empire was clearly collapsing.Land north of the Huai wasn't impossible to defend--if it was impossible to defend from the Khitans,the Khitans would have overrun such lands long ago.Countries don't simply choose payment over direct territorial conquest for no reason.The truth was that the Khitans lacked the capacity to conquer further Song territory.One has to remember that the whole Chanyuan Treaty where the Song Dynasty agreed to pay the Khitans tribute was only made after the Song Dynasty repelled the Khitan offensive--the Song Dynasty just decided that it's more worthwhile to just pay off the Khitans than to get another confrontation.
That is indeed mostly correct from Song point of view.I'm talking mostly about paying tribute from the Khitans' point of view.If they have the ability to conquer China,they would have done so just like the Jurchens.The war in the early 1000s started with the Khitans launching an offensive with the intent of conquering Song territory.It ended with the Khitans getting repelled.For the Khitans,Chinese territory was highly lucrative.Even the Sixteen Prefectures,which would normally be considered poor provinces in China was in fact the richest region in the Khitan Empire.So the profit of conquering even more Chinese territory cannot be overstated.Khitan defeat in this war showed that the risk-reward of conquering more Chinese territory was too great,the offer of Song tribute only helped this stance.However,the attitude that paying tributes alone would be enough to stave off invasion is foolish.The Khitan Empire ultimately backed off from trying to conquer more Chinese lands because Song opposition was too great.The Song Dynasty was essentially a sleeping giant.If it's possible,it would be in the Khitan Empire's interest to take it out before it 'woke up'.Countries have no will on their own, that's Europa Universalis fallacy. However, people running those countries, do.
Who was to be interested in waging war for those border provinces, on either side?
Emperor didn't seem to care, he was already ruler of all under heavens, how would his personal life get affected by winning war against Khitans? Life, whatever, pour me more wine 16th wife.
Bureaucrats didn't seem to care either. They certainly didn't want some low-status general to get famous and influential at court for capturing those provinces for the emperor.
They had crappy army, but they had plenty of cash. Paying tribute to Liao was no risk, low cost solution. Waging was was high-risk, low reward solution. Like, ugh, if we conquered it, we'd have to set up new bureaucracy there, i'd have to travel all the way there to oversee it, like, whatever.
Khitans didn't seem to care for war either. They got tribute, and spend it on importing Chinese goodies, they didn't had to work much, and spend their time doing what they did best: riding horsies and hunting. Much fun. Conquering Song would be waste of time, when conquer it, set up bureacuracy and tax system, why they forked money on their own?
Even if the Song Dynasty didn't fought the Khitans,the Khitan Empire would have still collapsed.It's worthwhile to note that the ruler of the ruler of the Khitans was quite incompetent as well and that the Liao Dynasty was badly decayed as well--just not as incompetent as the Song.So it's better to take retake the strategically important Yan Mountain passes rather than leave it under the control of a newly rising nomadic power.A smarter way of doing it would be assist the Khitans to repel the Jin invasion of the Sixteen Prefecture and keep the remnant Khitan state as some sort of client/vassal state before finally annexing it.Sometimes paying tribute does work. It certainly worked for Song.
Khitan ultimately backed off not because Song were too strong (perhaps initially), but because they got too comfortable with their mutual arrangement. They had no interest in taking out Song, and Song had no interest in "waking up". And Khitan emperor was more interested in hunting than ruling his empire.
Tunguts were actually being hostile against Song, so rather than invade Khitans out of blue, Song ought to kept fighting Tunguts.
And if their joint invasion of Liao with Jurchen was of any indication, Song didn't ever woke up, more like sleepwalked.
Song got so greedy to the point they betrayed Khitans with whom they were at peace for over hundred years, all for some border provinces. And to make it worse, they didn't even pull it of: Ce serait peu inadapté et stupide, ce serait irresponsable, ce serait pire qu'un crime - ce serait une déception.