AHC/WI : No united Japan in Kofun Era

How can we have a desunited Japan during the Kofun and Asuka eras, ending up with several kingdoms fighting for regional dominance as it happened in Korea?
Even if Japan does get unified later, what would that imply for Japanese culture and history, but also on their relation with Korea, China and Emishi?
 
Given that the Yamato court's northern drive during the Nara period was what really sped up the conquest of the Emishi and ensured their assimilation, I could see a disunited series of Yayoi/Kofun states making only a marginal impact on the Emishi homelands. They might make piecemeal/temporary gains in the manner of the Korean states against the Manchurian peoples but I think northern Honshu will remain culturally/politically distinct from the Kofun heartland. Even if the zone is finally brought under Kofun control, it may eventually drift away on the model of the Northern Fujiwara domains.

Unification of the area around the Inland Sea seems inevitable, but Kansai doesn't have to become the Japanese heartland-- the centrality of Yamato Province and then Kansai as a whole was a result of the local Yamato kingdom becoming the dominant Japanese state. A "westward-looking" state with its center in Izumo or north Kyushu (both notable centers of Yayoi culture, Izumo (currently Shimane Prefecture) continues to have an outsized role in Shinto myth) that conducts large-scale economic exchanges with Korea and Ryukyu (especially likely if the center is in Kyushu) would be an interesting prospect. All such a state would need would be to create and maintain a stranglehold on the continental/Ryukyuan trade that another upstart region of Japan (e.g. Yamato) could not usurp. Such a state might even go on to conquer Ryukyu as Satsuma did OTL, and put the Emishi land on the back burner entirely.
 
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Unification of the area around the Inland Sea seems inevitable, but Kansai doesn't have to become the Japanese heartland-- the centrality of Yamato Province and then Kansai as a whole was a result of the local Yamato kingdom becoming the dominant Japanese state. A "westward-looking" state with its center in Izumo or north Kyushu (both notable centers of Yayoi culture, Izumo (currently Shimane Prefecture) continues to have an outsized role in Shinto myth) that conducts large-scale economic exchanges with Korea and Ryukyu (especially likely if the center is in Kyushu) would be an interesting prospect. All such a state would need would be to create and maintain a stranglehold on the continental/Ryukyuan trade that another upstart region of Japan (e.g. Yamato) could not usurp. Such a state might even go on to conquer Ryukyu as Satsuma did OTL, and put the Emishi land on the back burner entirely.

What makes it logistically "inevitable"? How about having a power centre in northern Kyushu and another in Yamato, such that for a period of some centuries neither is capable of subjugating the other? And this situation might come about even after a previous unification, as a result of a civil war ending in a draw and partition of Inland Sea...
 
What makes it logistically "inevitable"? How about having a power centre in northern Kyushu and another in Yamato, such that for a period of some centuries neither is capable of subjugating the other? And this situation might come about even after a previous unification, as a result of a civil war ending in a draw and partition of Inland Sea...
Or even having a later unification of these two centers eventually, if it does seems inevitable on the long run : what would be the consequences?
 
the-kofun-period-3-638.jpg

I don't know the validity of this map, but could we see appear two early Japanese states, one centered on Kyushu, the other roughly corresponding to Yamato bordered by central sub-states falling into the influence or one or the other depending on the situation, and forcing a sort of geopolitical stalemate leading to Kyushu expanding southwards and Yamato northwards, likely as a prelude of general unification?
It seems, however, that Yamato expension went westwards : is there a connexion with these centers being closer to Korea and from trade ways?
 
The map seems accurate.
It seems, however, that Yamato expension went westwards : is there a connexion with these centers being closer to Korea and from trade ways?
It is likely that Yamato sought to secure hegemony over the richer west and become the preeminent Kofun state before marshalling its new power against the north.

What makes it logistically "inevitable"? How about having a power centre in northern Kyushu and another in Yamato, such that for a period of some centuries neither is capable of subjugating the other? And this situation might come about even after a previous unification, as a result of a civil war ending in a draw and partition of Inland Sea...

Inevitable might be too strong a word, but I do think the area around the Inland Sea will at least be economically integrated even if it isn't politically unified. That said, the prospect of a western and eastern state that consolidate and grow in opposite directions for a few centuries (like Silla and Goguryeo) is also plausible and also quite interesting.

I suppose that in such a scenario, the western state would likely include Kyushu and Izumo (Kibi, which is mentioned as being a rather martial society, may serve as a buffer between it and Yamato) and have a capital around the area of Dazaifu.
Meanwhile, Yamato might develop along the lines of the Warring States Qin-- cut off from easy trade, it instead launches piecemeal campaigns against the Emishi to seize and develop agricultural land and increase its fighting-age population. I can see it inching along the Tokaido to present Tokyo Bay. If a confrontation with the western state were to occur, it would likely contest control of Izumo or Shikoku.

EDIT: If the two states remain separate for long enough, I can see religious differences accumulating in their societies. Kyushu would likely be the first point of contact for Buddhism, and with its connections to Korea and China it may end up adopting Buddhism fairly quickly. But what about the eastern state? Might it cling a little closer to the precursors of Shinto, seeking to differentiate itself from its rival?
 
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