AHC/WI: No Iranian Hostage Crisis

Prevent the Iranian hostage crisis. What are the effects on the United States? Does Carter gain a stronger edge in 1980? Does Reagan seem weaker initially? Does the U. S. pursue (even if to fail) a stronger relationship with Iran?
 
Carter has a serious chance of losing the nomination to Ted Kennedy. He might drop out entirely, given that the crisis boosted his approval ratings enough to linger on. Otherwise, he's going down, hard.
 
Carter has a serious chance of losing the nomination to Ted Kennedy. He might drop out entirely, given that the crisis boosted his approval ratings enough to linger on. Otherwise, he's going down, hard.

Kennedy suffers from being Ted Kennedy. He had so much responsibility and stress between having to be patriarch of the family, there for every wedding, graduation, funeral and every problem anyone in the family had, and being a prominent Senator, not to mention baggage of the Chappaquiddick incident (which still lingered), his womanizing and his drinking. That imploded Kennedy. I also tend to think Ted Kennedy didn't want to be president, or at least didn't after his brothers were killed and it was expected of him.

So Ted could still implode, and if he didn't I believe it'd be like getting a birthday gift you never really wanted and rather wouldn't have since you have to figure out what to do with it now.
 
Carter has a serious chance of losing the nomination to Ted Kennedy. He might drop out entirely, given that the crisis boosted his approval ratings enough to linger on. Otherwise, he's going down, hard.

Everything I know about the 1980 election feels like a lie now.
 
Everything I know about the 1980 election feels like a lie now.

The crisis itself boosted his approval rating, due to the "rally 'round the flag" effect. It was the failure of Operation Eagle Claw that sunk him.
 
The crisis itself boosted his approval rating, due to the "rally 'round the flag" effect. It was the failure of Operation Eagle Claw that sunk him.

Yeah, the crisis saved him in 1979 and 1980. But by the fall, when things still weren't resolved... Nope.

Without a crisis though, Ted Kennedy probably defeats Carter for the nomination, with him dropping out early similarly to Truman in '52 and Johnson in '68 to save face. Would continue a pattern for Democrats, and Ted Kennedy would become a sort of Hubert Humphrey II... Or maybe the analogies go hardcore and Kennedy dies and Mondale becomes Humphrey II... Ouch.
 
Carter still has to deal with the miserable US economy and the Russians in Afghanistan, not to mention the memory of the oil crisis. The hostage crisis was more of a final nail in the coffin rather than a single issue that sunk him. I think it likely he would still be nominated for reelection but still lose to whatever GOP candidate is around (still likely to be Reagan, IMO)...
 
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