AHC/WI: Muhammad Ali Pasha's Industrial Revolution

Muhammad Ali Pasha, the Khedive of Egypt during the early to mid 19th century, used his position to try and start an Egyptian industrial revolution. His break with the Sultan in Istanbul coupled with British demands to completely slash all protective tariffs keeping the infant industries afloat coupled with his idiot grandson Abbas I who rolled back many of Muhammad Ali's reforms following his death.

Your challenge, if you choose to accept it, is to provide a PoD so Muhammad Ali Pasha's reforms can continue until his death instead of the halt and demise they experienced OTL and these reforms lead to self-sustaining industrialization. Some foreign trade is expected but basically Egypt should be capable of producing enough of the basic tools, parts, and such to keep their economy functioning.

What impact would an industrial Egypt have on Middle East history?
 
19th Century industrialization requires power. Where is the source here? Coal was the go to fuel for the century, tho where available oil and gas were used, mostly late in the century. I dont think anyones engineering skill was enough to generate much electricity out of the Nile. Too big a challenge, so maybe in the 20th Century?

Is there any oil or natural gas in Egypt that can be exploited by mid to late 19th Century technology?

After that there is the need to accquire Iron, copper, ect.. ect.. Egypt certainly does not have all these things, so a export to pay for them will have to be developed. That existed in Egypts cotton exports, but it does not seem enough, & perhaps unreliable.
 
Even if Egypt lacks the resources to be build heavy industry, there is no reason it couldn't build light industry. It would limit Egypt's ability to be a great power, but it could definitely be a mid-tier and local one. Enough to keep its independence and project power in Libya, Sudan, and along the Red Sea. By expanding the economy, it would provide Egypt with an improved tax base that might make Egypt able to fund the Suez Canal and not go into default. In turn, that would bring in revenue to make real industrialization possible in the early twentieth century.

It would take a long time to develop though. Which means Egypt either needs to have a string of outstanding rulers, or it needs to build the political and economic institutions that are self perpetuating and can prevent any one ruler from undoing earlier reforms. That likely means some kind of parliament and inclusion of the leading merchants and businessmen in it. That will be hard to do; rulers do not want to surrender power.
 
Even if Egypt lacks the resources to be build heavy industry, there is no reason it couldn't build light industry. It would limit Egypt's ability to be a great power, but it could definitely be a mid-tier and local one. Enough to keep its independence and project power in Libya, Sudan, and along the Red Sea. By expanding the economy, it would provide Egypt with an improved tax base that might make Egypt able to fund the Suez Canal and not go into default. In turn, that would bring in revenue to make real industrialization possible in the early twentieth century.

Part of the early industrialization was based on the production of cotton and cotton cloth which increased during the American Civil War. Grain and related production is also possible though damming the Nile is not going to happen before the 20th century. The engineering challenges are simply enormous and the margin for error brutally punishing. When Nasser built the Aswan High Dam in the 60s one of the biggest fears of the engineers was if they built the dam wrong all the accumulated water would unleash a flood big enough to wipe out around 90% of Egypt's population :eek:

It would take a long time to develop though. Which means Egypt either needs to have a string of outstanding rulers, or it needs to build the political and economic institutions that are self perpetuating and can prevent any one ruler from undoing earlier reforms. That likely means some kind of parliament and inclusion of the leading merchants and businessmen in it. That will be hard to do; rulers do not want to surrender power.

Most of Muhammad Ali Pasha's were capable and forward thinking with the exception of his reactionary grandson Abbas I who reigned after his son Ibrahim Pasha. Ismai'il the Magnificent, who succeeded Abbas, re-initiated a lot of his grandfather's reforms including starting the construction of the Suez Canal.

Maybe part of the answer lies in keeping Abbas from taking office as Wali and Khedive but there's still the bigger problem of the British. Following his rift with the Sultan the various protective barriers Muhammad Ali Pasha put in place to give his developing industries time and space were torn down, leading to many going out of business. That needs to be averted for Ismai'il to have a firm enough base to build from.
 
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