AHC/WI: Mondale landslide in '84

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RO1Q156NBEA

This graph from the Federal Reserve shows that the 1958 recession was a tad deeper, but that 1982 lasted quite a bit longer.

upload_2018-6-27_14-50-58.png


The gray lines are recessions.

And regarding 1980 and 1982, please blur the two gray lines together in your mind's eye. That is a long time in the psyche of American citizens.
 
Last edited:
https://books.google.com/books?id=o...combined downswings of 1980 and 1982"&f=false

' . . . Some analysts consider the combined downswings of 1980 and 1982--often referred to as a double-dip recession--a depression. This period was marked by an unemployment level exceeding 10 percent, a drop in the use of industrial capacity to less than 70 percent, and a record number of bankruptcies. . . '
The main point that I want to make is simply that 1982 was plenty bad enough.

Although it would be interesting to contrast and compare it to 1958, and maybe also the entire period from 1970 to 1975 which (?) in the minds and experience of many Americans never quite recovered an economy operating at a good fast clip (?).
 
Last edited:
PDF --> http://vibeserver.net/scripties/Harald Berings_Runaway American Dream.pdf

Regarding the early '80s, Doug Fraser of the UAW (United Auto Workers) said:

' . . . the kind of permanent layoff at Mahwah [New Jersey in 1980] was much more shattering than anything that happened in the Depression. At least in the 1930s, workers had hopes of being called back to work. . . '
And Bruce Springsteen wrote a song dark and tragic at least partially inspired by this, with some fiction, too:

https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/brucespringsteen/johnny99.html

"Johnny 99"

Well they closed down the auto plant in Mahwah late that month
Ralph went out lookin' for a job but he couldn't find none
He came home too drunk from mixin'
Tanqueray and wine
He got a gun shot a night clerk now they call 'm Johnny 99

.

.

.
 
Last edited:
https://books.google.com/books?id=7...ls, Newberry Mills in South Carolina"&f=false

' . . . In 1982, the apparel and textile industry had its highest number of plant closings at 47, including one of America's oldest cotton textile mills, Newberry Mills in South Carolina. Its closing would be followed by the closing of 12 more plants in South Carolina alone. . . '
So, the American south was by no means exempt.

Look, I know economics can be some boring-ass shit, although important. I think it's helpful to include a goodly amount of the human element along with the facts and figures.

And I also think a modern economy is almost biologically complex.
 
With any POD after his nomination as Democratic candidate, somehow have Walter Mondale win a landslide victory over President Ronald Reagan in the 1984 US election. Not necessarily as electorally one-sided as OTL, but with a wide Mondale lead in the popular and electoral votes.

Would require a breathtaking military defeat that leaves the U.S. shamed and hurt, like the Soviets reunifying Germany or a U.S. ally copping nukes. Or the 81/82 recession becomes an all-out depression.

My guess would be that they had a plan in place to move (or at least encourage) Reagan to step down during or shortly after the election if he started to show signs of significant mental deterioration. For someone of his age, that had to be an ever-present concern for his handlers and the party.
 
Would require a breathtaking military defeat that leaves the U.S. shamed and hurt, like the Soviets reunifying Germany or a U.S. ally copping nukes. Or the 81/82 recession becomes an all-out depression.

My guess would be that they had a plan in place to move (or at least encourage) Reagan to step down during or shortly after the election if he started to show signs of significant mental deterioration. For someone of his age, that had to be an ever-present concern for his handlers and the party.


Or just lasts longer. Reagan was going the way of Carter and Ford before him.
 
. . . My guess would be that they had a plan in place to move (or at least encourage) Reagan to step down . . .
Not as much a plan as you might think!

Removal of Reagan From Office Suggested to [Howard] Baker : Report Said Aides Described President as Depressed, Inept in Wake of Iran-Contra Crisis

Los Angeles Times, Jack Nelson, Sept. 15, 1988.

http://articles.latimes.com/1988-09-15/news/mn-2825_1_president-reagan

‘ . . . early in 1987 . . . ’


‘ . . . that White House aides drew of Reagan himself: "They told stories about how inattentive and inept the President was. He was lazy; he wasn't interested in the job. They said he wouldn't read the papers they gave him--even short position papers and documents. They said he wouldn't come over to work--all he wanted to do was to watch movies and television at the residence.” . . . ’
What happened is that incoming chief-of-staff Howard Baker observed Reagan doing okay at one meeting and that was that, which of course was nowhere near good enough. The responsible decision probably would have been for someone who had known Reagan for some time to sit down with him and say, Ronnie [or Mr. President], it’s time.

It would have also been the unlucky decision, for I don’t think Bush would have been as successful in shepherding the INF Treaty through to signature with Gorbachev in Dec. ‘87 and Senate ratification in May ‘88.
 
Last edited:
Sept. 26, '83, false alarm (Petrov save) & 'Able Archer' two separate danger peaks?
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...able-archer-two-separate-danger-peaks.348794/

Did President Reagan pare back Able Archer? (Nov. 1983)
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/did-president-reagan-pare-back-able-archer.380118/

Reagan deserves blame for ramping up tensions. But then he deserves credit for making an easy and comfortable decision to remove the newly planned role of heads-of-government from the ‘83 version of Able Archer. And he deserves credit for the INF Treaty.

So, two out of three for the Gipper, right? But damn, 1983 was dangerous. I think about the same as the Cuban Missile Crisis, just a lot less well known (other than here at AH).
 
Last edited:
Not as much a plan as you might think!


What happened is that incoming chief-of-staff Howard Baker observed Reagan doing okay at one meeting and that was that, which of course was nowhere near good enough. The responsible decision probably would have been for someone who had known Reagan for some time to sit down with him and say, Ronnie [or Mr. President], it’s time.

It would have also been the unlucky decision, for I don’t think Bush would have been as successful in shepherding the INF Treaty through to signature with Gorbachev in Dec. ‘87 and Senate ratification in May ‘88.

Interesting. I wonder if the thinking by then was that since Reagan's at the end of his presidency, it made more sense to, in a worst-case scenario, Weekend at Bernie's their way through the final months with Reagan effectively reduced to figurehead? As opposed to pushing him out with campaign season ramping up, making independents and wavering moderate conservatives wary about the state of the GOP?
 
. . . it made more sense to, in a worst-case scenario, Weekend at Bernie's their way through . . .
I don’t even think it was that rational. It was more of an emotional not wanting to go that far out on a limb and risk being embarrassed unless you were really sure.

Compare it to the Challenger launch decision, and other examples.
 
Last edited:
https://millercenter.org/the-presid...mes-kuhn-oral-history-personal-aide-president

‘ . . . We got back to the embassy, we were outside, it was warm, and we were going to greet everybody outside. He [Reagan]’s just standing there, just looking with this forlorn look on his face. Everybody stayed away from him. . . ’
Reagan wanted a broader agreement at Rejkjavik, Iceland, with Gorbachev and he didn’t get it. This was in Oct. ‘86. Ronnie may have felt that he had failed at an important part of his life’s work.

Plus, there was Iran-Contra, perhaps a feeling of being “tasked out,” all down side, no up side.

I will look up when Nancy had an operation for breast cancer.

The president may well have been depressed the first part of 1987.
 
Top