AHC/WI: Mary, Queen of Scots' Portuguese Marriage

This is inspired by the one episode"Reign" I actually watched. Say that João III and Katharina of Austria's son, João Manoel, dies in infancy, however, they have another son, *António (b.1540/1541). Said son is too young to wed Juana of Spain (b.1535 - she'd be 5-6years older than him). So of course, things go more or less as OTL until 1558. António is betrothed to one of Ferdinand I's daughters (say Johanna (OTL grand duchess of Tuscany)).

Suddenly, fhe queen of Scots becomes available (François II dies - Henri II should too, since otherwise Mary will just be engaged to Charles IX). She's pretty and vivacious - compared to Johanna who has scoliosis (IIRC) and poor health. In fact, Johanna's health is SO poor, that she dies c.1558-60. Felipe II of Spain remarries to his French wife at this point, and since OTL they offered Margot for D. Sebastião and Felipe offered D. Carlos or Archduke Karl of Steyr for Mary, I could see them using Mary as a proxy princess or António as a proxy prince.

And, tbf, António meets Mary's specifications - he's a king, he's Catholic and he'd be rich as Croesus (not one of her specifications, but hardly something she'd sniff at).

So, Mary-António wed in 1561/1562. Could it work? How would it work (Mary spends her time in Lisbon, Scotland governed by regents?)? And what happens to the English Succession if Elizabeth still goes her OTL route? Would Elizabeth do so?

@mcdnab @VVD0D95 @Olena @Kynan @isabella
 
This is inspired by the one episode"Reign" I actually watched. Say that João III and Katharina of Austria's son, João Manoel, dies in infancy, however, they have another son, *António (b.1540/1541). Said son is too young to wed Juana of Spain (b.1535 - she'd be 5-6years older than him). So of course, things go more or less as OTL until 1558. António is betrothed to one of Ferdinand I's daughters (say Johanna (OTL grand duchess of Tuscany)).

Suddenly, fhe queen of Scots becomes available (François II dies - Henri II should too, since otherwise Mary will just be engaged to Charles IX). She's pretty and vivacious - compared to Johanna who has scoliosis (IIRC) and poor health. In fact, Johanna's health is SO poor, that she dies c.1558-60. Felipe II of Spain remarries to his French wife at this point, and since OTL they offered Margot for D. Sebastião and Felipe offered D. Carlos or Archduke Karl of Steyr for Mary, I could see them using Mary as a proxy princess or António as a proxy prince.

And, tbf, António meets Mary's specifications - he's a king, he's Catholic and he'd be rich as Croesus (not one of her specifications, but hardly something she'd sniff at).

So, Mary-António wed in 1561/1562. Could it work? How would it work (Mary spends her time in Lisbon, Scotland governed by regents?)? And what happens to the English Succession if Elizabeth still goes her OTL route? Would Elizabeth do so?

@mcdnab @VVD0D95 @Olena @Kynan @isabella
Well, I would go also with João Manoel having his OTL life and Antonio (aka the second son) married to Queen Marie of Scotland...
And Elizabeth’s reign will be likely cut short if her Scottish cousin married in Spain, Austria or Portugal...
Marie Stuart main requisites for an husband were likely royal blood and being Catholic... the one who wanted marry only a King was Mary Tudor...
 
Mary's principal concerns were a marriage that in her mind maintained the kind of status she had enjoyed in France as Queen Consort. Her uncle attempted to arrange her marriage to AD Charles of Austria but she hadn't given him consent to that and the idea was dropped - she herself pursued Don Carlos (the son of Philip of Spain) - however Philip rebuffed her efforts for reasons we probably all understand.
At this point she is rather cornered - she is tolerating the Protestants in Scotland which annoys and puts off Catholics - Her cousin Elizabeth is hinting that she will name Mary as heir in default of her own issue but only if Mary marries in accordance with England's desires. Her crushing of Catholic rebel lords in 62 isn't going to make her anymore attractive to a Catholic prince.
Portugal is of course an option in your scenario - but effectively it ensures the English council will continue to pour money into the hands of Scotland's protestant peers to ensure the back door remains closed.
And unlike Mary's marriage to Francis this time her Parliament will have plenty to say over the marriage treaty and contract which might hamper negotiations (look at Mary Tudor's difficulties in how even a kindly disposed English Parliament was willing to limit her husband's rights in England).
The pressure on Elizabeth to marry will intensify especially if Mary produces a child and even if she doesn't there is a succession crisis looming on her death between rival claimants.
One problem was that Philip maintained his interest in supporting Elizabeth in her early reign initially in the hope she would marry him or, after his own remarriage. to marry his chosen candidate - he was mistrustful of Mary and considered her pro-French.
 
Honestly a marriage to a second son of Portugal might have been perfect for Mary, particularly if they end up co-rulers. But it’d depend on his personality. Mary was pretty docile by nature, and only really seemed to get passionate (and admittedly pretty dumb) when she got put into difficult situations. Honestly, given the choice between staying in Portugal 90% of the time and letting someone handle Scotland vs staying there and trying to figure it all out, she’d probably enjoy the idea of being a consort again much more. However, Portugal is not France. They don’t have the same atmosphere at court, the same routine or even the same level of interest in pretty consorts, even if they’re Queen Regants in their own right. If Mary isn’t popular, and considering how she got OTL that’s a distinct possibility in a court where she doesn’t have the Guises to make her feel pretty and important when the Queen Mother is rude to her, I could definitely see her getting frustrated with it all and even potentially abandoning Portugal to go play at Queen until she gets her own way. She never did in France because she was pampered and placated. If Portugal proves disappointing, that’s going to end poorly for everyone. Hell, if Scotland then rebels and she has to run, it might end up with her in England, and Elizabeth might actually have to see her this time, before she inevitably goes back to Portugal and demands an army to get her back her crown.

Note: these are quick thoughts and not terribly well thought out.
 
Also it poses a significant problem to Scotland in the medium term - if she head off to Portugal her country devolves further into Protestantism and will now have to consider a future with a Catholic monarch long-term - that poses questions of how far the Protestant lords will be willing to go. Portugal isn't France in terms of providing troops to placate rebellious Scots (and in OTL the French weren't over keen on the high costs of keeping troops in Scotland and it did little to help Marie of Guise's reputation or her daughter's)
 
At this point she is rather cornered - she is tolerating the Protestants in Scotland which annoys and puts off Catholics - Her cousin Elizabeth is hinting that she will name Mary as heir in default of her own issue but only if Mary marries in accordance with England's desires. Her crushing of Catholic rebel lords in 62 isn't going to make her anymore attractive to a Catholic prince.
Portugal is of course an option in your scenario - but effectively it ensures the English council will continue to pour money into the hands of Scotland's protestant peers to ensure the back door remains closed.
And unlike Mary's marriage to Francis this time her Parliament will have plenty to say over the marriage treaty and contract which might hamper negotiations (look at Mary Tudor's difficulties in how even a kindly disposed English Parliament was willing to limit her husband's rights in England).
The pressure on Elizabeth to marry will intensify especially if Mary produces a child and even if she doesn't there is a succession crisis looming on her death between rival claimants.
One problem was that Philip maintained his interest in supporting Elizabeth in her early reign initially in the hope she would marry him or, after his own remarriage. to marry his chosen candidate - he was mistrustful of Mary and considered her pro-French.

Could her crushing of Catholic rebels in '62 not be seen as a monarch asserting her rights rather than as a religiously grounded thing? Perhaps butterflies could get one or two disgruntled Protestant lords swept up in the furor.
As to the Scots Parliament, AIUI (although this could be overly naive), it was a case of they could barely agree on much. I mean, they tried to get Mary a Protestant husband OTL, so I figure they'd probably (Catholics and Protestants alike) agree on attempting to block a Catholic foreign match, but just how much gag room they would leave Mary might remain open to question.
I wonder - given the "special relationship" historically between England and Portugal, how might the English see Mary's Portuguese match? Would they back it (i.e. Elizabeth gives it tacit support)? Or would they regard it the same as Mary Tudor marrying Felipe II of Spain and ergo, start putting the screws to Liz to marry?

Honestly a marriage to a second son of Portugal might have been perfect for Mary, particularly if they end up co-rulers. But it’d depend on his personality. Mary was pretty docile by nature, and only really seemed to get passionate (and admittedly pretty dumb) when she got put into difficult situations. Honestly, given the choice between staying in Portugal 90% of the time and letting someone handle Scotland vs staying there and trying to figure it all out, she’d probably enjoy the idea of being a consort again much more. However, Portugal is not France. They don’t have the same atmosphere at court, the same routine or even the same level of interest in pretty consorts, even if they’re Queen Regants in their own right. If Mary isn’t popular, and considering how she got OTL that’s a distinct possibility in a court where she doesn’t have the Guises to make her feel pretty and important when the Queen Mother is rude to her, I could definitely see her getting frustrated with it all and even potentially abandoning Portugal to go play at Queen until she gets her own way. She never did in France because she was pampered and placated. If Portugal proves disappointing, that’s going to end poorly for everyone. Hell, if Scotland then rebels and she has to run, it might end up with her in England, and Elizabeth might actually have to see her this time, before she inevitably goes back to Portugal and demands an army to get her back her crown.

Note: these are quick thoughts and not terribly well thought out.

Pretty docile, yes. Arrogant and stubborn, yes. Well aware of her queenly-status, very much so. However, she was also a fast learner and used to getting her own way. And in Portugal, she's going to have to deal with a far more stubborn Catherine as a mother-in-law.
I could see Mary introducing a lot of French styles/fashions etc. to Lisbon - if she does make it to queen. However, I think a lot is going to depend on her relationship with D. Antonio. So let's assume that while they're not "in love", they do get on reasonably well, they like each other, and both secretly chafe at the strings being pulled from Madrid or London, rather than being free to move by themselves.

I wonder if Liz will dare back anyone against Mary in this scenario? I mean, it's one thing to back the Protestant lords when her husband is one of your own nobles and barely has a say in how the kingdom is run. Something completely different (I'd imagine) to back them when her husband is the second richest monarch in Western Europe, and cousin to most of the monarchs (or their consorts) in the rest of western and central Europe, with his own kingdom and his own navy/army
 
Mary, Queen of Scotland and Portugal. I like the sound of it. Now, Elizabeth might be even more reluctant to move against Mary here than she was historically, given the risk of Portugal going up in arms in defence of their Queen.

As a counterpoint to that, Elizabeth will be under even more pressure to marry/name a Protestant heir ( any children Mary has will doubtless be Protestant here). Assuming Cecil does manage to get Elizabeth to the altar, who do you think she'd pick as a husband?
 
Could her crushing of Catholic rebels in '62 not be seen as a monarch asserting her rights rather than as a religiously grounded thing? Perhaps butterflies could get one or two disgruntled Protestant lords swept up in the furor.
As to the Scots Parliament, AIUI (although this could be overly naive), it was a case of they could barely agree on much. I mean, they tried to get Mary a Protestant husband OTL, so I figure they'd probably (Catholics and Protestants alike) agree on attempting to block a Catholic foreign match, but just how much gag room they would leave Mary might remain open to question.
I wonder - given the "special relationship" historically between England and Portugal, how might the English see Mary's Portuguese match? Would they back it (i.e. Elizabeth gives it tacit support)? Or would they regard it the same as Mary Tudor marrying Felipe II of Spain and ergo, start putting the screws to Liz to marry?



Pretty docile, yes. Arrogant and stubborn, yes. Well aware of her queenly-status, very much so. However, she was also a fast learner and used to getting her own way. And in Portugal, she's going to have to deal with a far more stubborn Catherine as a mother-in-law.
I could see Mary introducing a lot of French styles/fashions etc. to Lisbon - if she does make it to queen. However, I think a lot is going to depend on her relationship with D. Antonio. So let's assume that while they're not "in love", they do get on reasonably well, they like each other, and both secretly chafe at the strings being pulled from Madrid or London, rather than being free to move by themselves.

I wonder if Liz will dare back anyone against Mary in this scenario? I mean, it's one thing to back the Protestant lords when her husband is one of your own nobles and barely has a say in how the kingdom is run. Something completely different (I'd imagine) to back them when her husband is the second richest monarch in Western Europe, and cousin to most of the monarchs (or their consorts) in the rest of western and central Europe, with his own kingdom and his own navy/army

Mary, Queen of Scotland and Portugal. I like the sound of it. Now, Elizabeth might be even more reluctant to move against Mary here than she was historically, given the risk of Portugal going up in arms in defence of their Queen.

As a counterpoint to that, Elizabeth will be under even more pressure to marry/name a Protestant heir ( any children Mary has will doubtless be Protestant here). Assuming Cecil does manage to get Elizabeth to the altar, who do you think she'd pick as a husband?

Well, this scenarios would require firstly who Elizabeth kept her Kingdom... and, with a Spanish/Austrian/Portuguese wedding of Marie Stuart, Philip has a friendly, Catholic and without doubt legitimate alternative to Elizabeth for the English Crown and so will likely switch his support from Elizabeth to Marie of Scotland and Elizabeth will be in a lot of trouble
 
Mary, Queen of Scotland and Portugal. I like the sound of it. Now, Elizabeth might be even more reluctant to move against Mary here than she was historically, given the risk of Portugal going up in arms in defence of their Queen.

As a counterpoint to that, Elizabeth will be under even more pressure to marry/name a Protestant heir ( any children Mary has will doubtless be Protestant here). Assuming Cecil does manage to get Elizabeth to the altar, who do you think she'd pick as a husband?

I'm wondering if Portugal will be any more help than France was in that regard.

As to a husband for Liz, she might start playing her French cards a lot earlier than OTL. She might be forced to. Felipe II's not necessarily going to hold off on backing her if his brother-in-law, António, is the future king of England.

It might also see a more Protestant Liz (match with Denmark or Sweden? Some German guy?), since if she can't get a Frenchman to wed, a German/Scandinavian might be the next best option.
 
Well, this scenarios would require firstly who Elizabeth kept her Kingdom... and, with a Spanish/Austrian/Portuguese wedding of Marie Stuart, Philip has a friendly, Catholic and without doubt legitimate alternative to Elizabeth for the English Crown and so will likely switch his support from Elizabeth to Marie of Scotland and Elizabeth will be in a lot of trouble

I think a lot would depend on Felipe's relationship with Antònio (and London). Liz could probably string him along as a possible husband (should he NOT wed Élisabeth de Valois) until AT least Mary gives António an heir. By which point, both queens become redundant. Or perhaps present herself as a fourth wife to Felipe should her French namesake still die (Felipe's getting desperate for a son - who isn't D. Carlos - by that point, so I could see some sort of catty remark like "her mother promised her father a son too, and look how that turned out").
 
I think a lot would depend on Felipe's relationship with Antònio (and London). Liz could probably string him along as a possible husband (should he NOT wed Élisabeth de Valois) until AT least Mary gives António an heir. By which point, both queens become redundant. Or perhaps present herself as a fourth wife to Felipe should her French namesake still die (Felipe's getting desperate for a son - who isn't D. Carlos - by that point, so I could see some sort of catty remark like "her mother promised her father a son too, and look how that turned out").
Well Felipe here would be already married to Elisabeth or he will marry Marie himself...
And Elisabeth here will lost her crown much before the death of Queen Isabel...
Remember who Mary has a very good claim to England against Elizabeth not only as her heiress
 
If Mary did happen to marry another foreign catholic prince, it would be incredibly hard for Mary to retain her throne in Scotland as she would once again be viewed as a Portuguese queen rather than a french one. If the marriage were to occur abroad in Portugal, this would inevitably delay the growth of the "Queensmen" faction within Scotland. Since highlanders were fiercely loyal to their own identity, a foreign prince would also be unpalatable as well. If she were to offer him the title "King of Scots", a power struggle between her and her husband would almost certainly develop, similar to Henry Stuart's trials and tribulations as a consort. Considering Portugal's staunch anti-reformation policies, if her husband could eventually assert himself within the Scottish court, Scotland could easily go the way of the French in regards to their Wars of Religion.
Still, all of the dynasties considered for the Scottish crown were deeply devoted to the growth of dynastic power, especially in counter to a protestant power like England, so Mary would almost certainly have a child or 15.
 
Well Felipe here would be already married to Elisabeth or he will marry Marie himself...
And Elisabeth here will lost her crown much before the death of Queen Isabel...
Remember who Mary has a very good claim to England against Elizabeth not only as her heiress

When Felipe marries Élisabeth de Valois in 1559, Mary is unavailable. When Élisabeth dies and Felipe is free to remarry, Mary is unavailable (she's now queen of Scots wedded to Darnley/Bothwell).

Felipe will either wed the English Liz (if at all) in 1559 (and let D. Carlos wed Élisabeth de Valois) or he will wed Liz in 1566. And that's IF Liz doesn't decide to wed Jamie Hamilton (perhaps as a way to keep a check on Mary) or some Teuton/Nordic prince (to keep a check on the Catholics). There are no French princes of age available in 1559 and in the mid-1560s (by which time Mary has had an heir or two) it's only Charles IX.

One of the Bourbons - the prince de Condé or one of his brothers - might work but I can never remember which ones were Protestant and which Catholic. Or what their relationship with the court was like. I'd suggest the duc de Montpensier (son of Jacqueline de Longwy) but I think the Montpensier line stayed rigidly Catholic.
 
When Felipe marries Élisabeth de Valois in 1559, Mary is unavailable. When Élisabeth dies and Felipe is free to remarry, Mary is unavailable (she's now queen of Scots wedded to Darnley/Bothwell).

Felipe will either wed the English Liz (if at all) in 1559 (and let D. Carlos wed Élisabeth de Valois) or he will wed Liz in 1566. And that's IF Liz doesn't decide to wed Jamie Hamilton (perhaps as a way to keep a check on Mary) or some Teuton/Nordic prince (to keep a check on the Catholics). There are no French princes of age available in 1559 and in the mid-1560s (by which time Mary has had an heir or two) it's only Charles IX.

One of the Bourbons - the prince de Condé or one of his brothers - might work but I can never remember which ones were Protestant and which Catholic. Or what their relationship with the court was like. I'd suggest the duc de Montpensier (son of Jacqueline de Longwy) but I think the Montpensier line stayed rigidly Catholic.
Kellan If Marie Stuart married a Portuguese prince around 1562 likely 1566 is too late for having an Elizabeth either still on the throne of England or disponible to marry Felipe as she would be likely already excommunicated and a Spanish/Portuguese/Scottish invasion of England already attempted. Remember who for the Catholic’s powers Elizabeth is only the heretic and illegitimate daughter of the heretic and excommunicated Henry VIII while Marie of Scotland being Mary Tudor’s next legitimate relative (as Marie is the heiress of Henry VII’s oldest daughter while the Greys, Cliffords and Lennoxs came all from more junior lines)...
OTL Elizabeth’s had the protection of Felipe but she will lose it without doubt if Marie remarried in the Spanish camp...

My suggestion for a match between Felipe and Marie was a slightly delayed death of Mary Tudor (five months later so in April instead of the previous November) so who we will have Henry II of France dying during the joust for the wedding of his daughter to Carlos, Prince of the Asturias, (after claiming England for his daughter-in-law) followed some months later by his eldest son as OTL... here is pretty unlikely who Felipe had already remarried to Elizabeth of England for many reasons and a newly available Marie Stuart is a much better match for Felipe has she has none of Elizabeth’s cons (she is unquestionably legitimate, Catholic, has a claim on the whole island and is the first cousin once removed of his previous wife instead of being her half-sister)
 
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