What effect would they have on the war on terror assuming that the towers are still hit but Iraq follows China's lead of expressing shock rather Saddam's otl ill-timed schadenfreude?The most plausible way for Iraq to adopt this very radical and explicitly Eastern branch of Communism, it'd have to be through Iran. Either Iran is taken over not by the clergy but by very radical Communists, or it's more willing to look the other way and let the Chinese funnel resources into Iraq for a bribe and certain benefits to maintain a landline to Iraq. However, a country ruled by something as radical as Maoism (It'd probably morph into something called Qasimism or some such), having it share a border with Saudi Arabia would be a direct threat to them and the other more conservative monarchies. It'd also vehemently support radical factions in Syria, Israel and Lebanon and embrace the Pan-Arabism of the Ba'athists, financially and militarily supporting Palestinian terror groups.
What effect would they have on the war on terror assuming that the towers are still hit but Iraq follows China's lead of expressing shock rather Saddam's otl ill-timed schadenfreude?
What effect would they have on the war on terror assuming that the towers are still hit but Iraq follows China's lead of expressing shock rather Saddam's otl ill-timed schadenfreude?
First off, I think we need to clarify the terminology. A "Maoist" Iraq is not neccessarily the same thing as a "pro-China" Iraq. The Khmer Rouge throughout its existence was Maoist AND pro-China, the Shining Path was Maoist but anti-China(at least after Deng came to power), and North Korea after the collapse of the USSR was non-Maoist, but basically pro-China.
But assuming you mean that Iraq allies with China during Mao's rule, and sticks with China into the Deng years and beyond, then it's going to be a very different government from Saddam's. A lot is going to depend whether its Khmer Rouge-style pro-China, DPRK-style pro-China, or more just China-style pro-China.
Either way, such a regime would likely have a history unrecognizable from OTL, so a lot gets butterflied away. China, for example, might try to slam the brakes on the invasion of Kuwait in 1991.
They'd adopt Socialism with Iraqi Characteristics, i.e. state capitalism in order to compensate for going from a Maoist centralization to a free market capitalist economic system.I changed the title to allow flexibility but I'm pretty sure any Pro-China communists are inevitable going to adopt at least some aspects of Maoism. Let's say it follows the Chinese path but also learning from their mistakes. During the Dengist period would it be possible for the Iraqi government to adopt Democratic Socialism after seeing that autocratic communism isn't working?
Would they inevitably turn into a Plutocracy like China did or could Iraq control liberalization enough to protect workers and fund a welfare state?They'd adopt Socialism with Iraqi Characteristics, i.e. state capitalism in order to compensate for going from a Maoist centralization to a free market capitalist economic system.
Depends on how their economy does and just how authoritarian Iraq ends up being. I don't think Iraq is ever going to be an export-heavy manufacturing state the way China organizes it's economy, so there's less pressure on pegging their money and keeping imports low. Unless they completely mess it up like Venezuela and get a vastly incompetent strongman in power, their oil wells are going to be a huge boon to Iraq's economy.Would they inevitably turn into a Plutocracy like China did or could Iraq control liberalization enough to protect workers and fund a welfare state?
How democratic could the congress become at best and could they avoid corruption in the oil industry and invest into other sectors allowing the economy to survive the barrel profits plummeting?Depends on how their economy does and just how authoritarian Iraq ends up being. I don't think Iraq is ever going to be an export-heavy manufacturing state the way China organizes it's economy, so there's less pressure on pegging their money and keeping imports low. Unless they completely mess it up like Venezuela and get a vastly incompetent strongman in power, their oil wells are going to be a huge boon to Iraq's economy.
That's a tall order coming from Arab Maoists. You somehow have to have competent statesmen and specialists handling domestic affairs, keep the oil men complacent but prevent them from becoming corrupt, keep the population from getting agitated and prevent the economy from going under if something unexpected happens. The first two are especially difficult.How democratic could the congress become at best and could they avoid corruption in the oil industry and invest into other sectors allowing the economy to survive the barrel profits plummeting?
Is the issue the lack of experts in the party or that Iraq lacks experts in the field period? Iraq may not exactly be a first world country but I still feel that with 40 million people there'd be someone with a degree in economics who'd know how to diversify.That's a tall order coming from Arab Maoists. You somehow have to have competent statesmen and specialists handling domestic affairs, keep the oil men complacent but prevent them from becoming corrupt, keep the population from getting agitated and prevent the economy from going under if something unexpected happens. The first two are especially difficult.
They might be able to import experts and find some educated professionals, but it could be tremendously difficult to implement if the leader of Iraq adopts Mao's approaches to intellectuals, politicians, scholars, religious figures and sections of the pre-revolutionary army. I don't think a full-blown Cultural Revolution would go down in Iraq, but we're talking Maoists here.Is the issue the lack of experts in the party or that Iraq lacks experts in the field period? Iraq may not exactly be a first world country but I still feel that with 40 million people there'd be someone with a degree in economics who'd know how to diversify.