AHC/WI: Latest POD for a 21st century dominated only by nonWestern Superpower(s)

Create a scenario with the latest possible POD such that the late 20th and early 21st century of this TL has no Western superpowers and is dominated by a non-Western nation or nations. Perhaps even a cold war between two competing non-Western superpowers, like a resurgent Ottoman Empire vs China.

The only way I can think about approaching this would be to prevent the rise of the US by splitting it into several independent countries right after the Revolutionary Wars. Then with perhaps China and/or the Ottoman Empire going through the right reforms and the European colonial empires weakening then collapsing from some World War(s), the modern world of this TL can be dominated primarily by China and/or the OE.

Later POD, even after 1900, would be welcome, but don't resort to nuclear war or Yellowstone Eruption or some other mega disaster along those lines.
 
Honestly, I'd say European ascendancy was a fluke. When you look at them objectively, the European powers really aren't that strong. If Song China industrialized and/or the Mongol conquests were avoided, I'm sure Europe would be fairly irrelevant.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Honestly, I'd say European ascendancy was a fluke. When you look at them objectively, the European powers really aren't that strong. If Song China industrialized and/or the Mongol conquests were avoided, I'm sure Europe would be fairly irrelevant.

Which raises the question: why did Europe industrialize and Song China did not?

Strength is measured by far more than resources and populations. Strength is measured by a nation's ability to project power. The Netherlands in the 17th Century were a drop of water in the bucket even when compared to their European neighbors, much less the kingdoms of India or the Empire of China. Yet because of their advanced economic and financial institutions, they were able to project power on a greater scale than anybody else and actually were the dominant power of the world for a time. These historical forces are difficult to understand and impossible to quantify. I always sigh and shake my head when I read posts that say something like, "Since Country A has a lot of forests and a long coastline, they can build lots of ships and create a powerful naval force." History doesn't work that way.
 
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Interesting thoughts, but I did say latest POD. So hopefully a world where the West already began to overtake the rest of the world, but the East reforms and successfully overtakes the West completely and has the only superpowers by the 21st century.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Which raises the question: why did Europe industrialize and Song China did not?
The problem the Song had can basically be summed up in the word "Yuan". That and that they had a kind of high-productivity trap - craftsmen could do most of the tasks for which one might otherwise need the early stages of industrialization.

But if you don't have so many craftsmen, then possibly one might be able to incentivise early industrialization...
The real problem is delivering the kick Song China needs to get it started without the kick being so strong that it results in their replacement by another dynasty.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Interesting thoughts, but I did say latest POD. So hopefully a world where the West already began to overtake the rest of the world, but the East reforms and successfully overtakes the West completely and has the only superpowers by the 21st century.

And how exactly does the "East reform"? Like I said, it took the West literally thousands of years to develop the complex economic, social, cultural, and political institutions that have allowed it to rise to such a powerful place in the world today. And it was an evolutionary process, not a deliberate thing at all. Nobody knew it was happening while it happened and nobody planned it.
 
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And how exactly does the "East reform"? Like I said, it took the West literally thousands of years to develop the complex economic, social, cultural, and political institutions that have allowed it to rise to such a powerful place in the world today. And it was an evolutionary process, not a deliberate thing at all. Nobody knew it was happening while it happened and nobody planned it.

Except the illuminati :eek:
 
There is a strong geographic argument (and no, this has nothing to do with Guns, Germs and Steel), that speculates that since Europe lacks many key resources they are always going to go abroad looking for more. East Asia, India, and the Middle East are much more resource-blessed (either able to gain what they really want through trade or the fact they're sitting on it), so there is never as much of an urge to extract resources from other continents.

Then there's the Americas. West Africa and Europe are the only two regions set to take advantage of the Americas, due to distances involved (China colonizing the Americas, while a popular meme here, is a little far-fetched. The Pacific Ocean is a lot bigger than the Atlantic One, and China has no real reason to explore to her East when everything she would want is to her West.). It would take a much, MUCH earlier PoD to get West Africa colonizing the Americas, and once you reach the 1300s (When the way East was overrun by Muslims), discovery of the Americas by Europeans becomes inevitable. With this discovery comes exploitation, settling, enrichment, and Europe for the first time in history being able to compete with the East on an Economics level right in their backyard.

The latest PoD is probably the Mongol Conquests. The Song industrialization is overplayed here, but there is still the possibility of it happening. The Muslim golden age may have been over, but it was still possible for a rejuvenation. The point is, without the devastation caused by the Mongols, there is a lot of opportunity in what could happen.

That's probably your latest PoD, but it would still require a lot of luck to get it to happen. Alternatively, you could have the West industrialize and rise somehow earlier than OTL, and then the East catches up demographically by the 21st century. Assuming no analogy of the United States of America (American continental Superpower with both a big population and economic base and kinship with Europe), there's no reason to believe civilizations like China, an alt India, or some South East Asian power would not totally eclipse Europe.
 
read up Maddison, Rourke, Findlay, Pommeranz eg the current mainstream academics specializing in the field. England was bound to go to colonization . Access to global trade markets was too good an incentive to pass up.

I have posted this before and ill do so again.
Western Europe according to the mainstream economic history view was rich compared to other parts of the world prior to industrial revolution verified by quantitative data. In 1000 A.D Europe was poorer than Asia, but by 1400-1500 it had overtaken the rest of the world though differentials weren't as pronounced as post 1820. "This richness was product of centuries of accumulation based in turn on investment, appropriation of European resources and labour, substantial tech progress.. not only in distribution of material goods but in organization and financing of their exchange and distribution."(Maddison World Economy the Mellenial Perspective)..

I can link you to world economic statistics compiled by Maddison in 1992 to reflect the new findings on the world economy between 1000-2000 A.D> I too was surprised myself by what it showed.

Essentially for a no western superpower to dominate the world you need a POD before 1400. perhaps 1300ish when Europe and Asia were at roughly similial economic developmntal levels. Havethe plague wreak much more havoc or

have the mongol khan ogedei not die. Maybe they hear of the riches and wealth of Constantinople and Italy and decide to continue their invsion of Europe. They ravage eastern europe, central europe and push into western Europe devastating everything in their path . European economic development drops back to 5th and 6th century levels. Now the UK will be untouched as will Scandinavia so dont know how tos top these regions growth. Mongols collapse like otl and the ensuing wars lead to the western hordes exhausting their resources and manpwer for many centuries fighting against the other hordes like otl.

Eventually in the 1900s some genghis khan like ruler is born in one of the Horde lands east and he launches a campaign to unite all mongol territories and he succeeds with aid from fellow allies. Wallah the Great Horde a superpower in the 1900s maybe.

Essential what you need to allow non European nations to overtake Europe is for Europe to suffer from intervals of such great economic, social and political destruction that they are reduced back to at minimum pre 12th century century a.d developmental levels.
 
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Essentially for a no western superpower to dominate the world you need a POD before 1400. perhaps 1300ish when Europe and Asia were at roughly similial economic developmntal levels. Havethe plague wreak much more havoc or

have the mongol khan ogedei not die. Maybe they hear of the riches and wealth of Constantinople and Italy and decide to continue their invsion of Europe. They ravage eastern europe, central europe and push into western Europe devastating everything in their path . European economic development drops back to 5th and 6th century levels. Now the UK will be untouched as will Scandinavia so dont know how tos top these regions growth. Mongols collapse like otl and the ensuing wars lead to the western hordes exhausting their resources and manpwer for many centuries fighting against the other hordes like otl.

Eventually in the 1900s some genghis khan like ruler is born in one of the Horde lands east and he launches a campaign to unite all mongol territories and he succeeds with aid from fellow allies. Wallah the Great Horde a superpower in the 1900s maybe.
Alternately avoid the Dzungar genocide. If the Chinese didn't make sure Mongolians would never rise to power again, they wouldn't be so secure geographically and be able to just sit there and stagnate.
 
read up Maddison, Rourke, Findlay, Pommeranz eg the current mainstream academics specializing in the field. England was bound to go to colonization . Access to global trade markets was too good an incentive to pass up.



I call your Pomeranz, and raise you a California School of Economic History. Just to be annoying and to show that this matter is far from settled. I think it is too early to have an opinion one way or the other.

But yhea, one of Europe’s main advantages was the existence of state backed trade ventures. Most of the trade in the Indian Ocean and the China Sea was done by independent trading guilds and they are going to be outcompeted eventually, OTL it wasn’t until the mid-18th century that this happened, you can probably speed it up or slow it down a bit, but happen it will.
I have no clue on how these institutional forms arose, but if I had to make a blind guess I would point to the high startup costs of trade expeditions that Europeans faced given their peripheral position. If this is so, then it is a thing mostly set in stone.
Then again you could probably think of a POV were similar institutions arise elsewhere by sheer luck or some other clever process. In this case the POV would have to be in the mid 1400ths since that was when European powers began sending expeditions eastwards.



The discovery of America is more than likely to be at the hands of Europeans, this means that a price revolution will happen eventually and it will be as devastating on non-European powers as it was OTL.
So I’m calling a Paleolithic POV were most of the megafauna survives, and the Americas are developed enough that a price revolution doesn’t happen or if it happens it affects Europe as much as everyone else.

One of the first threads where I commented actually contemplated a similar scenario: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=325084
 
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