Clegg wanted Brown gone because of his unpopularity with the public, in 2008 that would be less of an issue, particularly if Labour are largest party in a hung parliament. But if your going for a PoD where he calls an election in 2007 for 2008, it is likely that Ming Campbell would still be in the job, who was better disposed to Brown.So the best I can do is say 'Brown calls an early election in 2008'. This would probably result in a hung Parliament, but Clegg might have ended up going into coalition with Labour if the numbers and the deal had been right. I think one of Clegg's coalition demands for Labour in OTL 2010 was for Brown to resign as PM, so that might be an interesting situation.
What PoD could accomplish this? What scenario would this be? The PoD has to be after 2008. What would be the effects? What if?
It is a difficult one, all the best shots to have Labour continue on post 2010 are gone after the financial crisis, it wasnt that they handled things badly in the short term but Brown was an electoral liability and there wasnt much of a realistic prospect of getting rid of him, and he wouldnt have gone by himself with just two or three years and no election victories to his name.
My best suggestion would be 'Cleggmania' in 2010 carries on into polling day, possibly because of debates closer to the election, producing an outcome where the Conservatives come first in popular vote by getting in the low thirties while Labour and the Lib Dems are on around 29% each. However, due to the boundaries and the illogicalities of FPTP, Labour just about emerge as the largest party (very much possible under these results) and Clegg opts for a coalition with them as they are more open to a referendum on PR. Due to the disproportional result and less of a sense of a betrayal from Clegg by the public if he can get a better deal on tuition fees, the public votes yes to STV in a referendum.
Brown would probably go as part of the coalition agreement, or if he didnt he would leave at some point in that to be replaced by David Miliband. The Tories would have likely ousted Cameron, and if the rise of UKIP sufficiently knocks them off balance, there is every chance that the first elections under STV produce a hung parliament, and the Lib Dems opt for a second coalition with Labour.
Clegg wanted Brown gone because of his unpopularity with the public, in 2008 that would be less of an issue, particularly if Labour are largest party in a hung parliament. But if your going for a PoD where he calls an election in 2007 for 2008, it is likely that Ming Campbell would still be in the job, who was better disposed to Brown.
In this scenario the Lib Dems would have considerably more sway over Labour than OTL, maybe it would be possible for them to get Labour to keep it at £3,000, that way they can claim some semblance of a victory, there would be blowback but not quite as much.I think we agree largely on how this Government would be formed, but I disagree with you on the aftermath.
1. I think the Libs are going to get kicked for any rise in tuition fees, even if only to £6k for example. After all, IOTL they tried to point to rising support for students from low income backgrounds and the fact the burden would be shifted onto higher earners, all to no avail. I suppose the only saving grace is that a Lib/Lab coalition might not get the Browne report through the Commons, but I suspect the Tories would vote with the Government on this...?
2. If you can get a vote on an STV referendum past the Labour backbenches, which I have some doubt about, I think it'll fail for much the same reason AV did: a confused message, and an opportunity to kick an unpopular figure. IOTL this was Clegg, ITTL I think it'll just be the basically "illegitimate" Lib/Lab Government.