AHC WI: John Redwood wins 1997 Conservative leadership election

I was thinking for my New Labour wank idea that maybe a split in the Tories isn't possible under Hague. For all his flaws he avoided a split on Europe and the issue wasn't ripping the party apart in 2001. So maybe a different leader, maybe John Redwood, could split the Tories and weaken them. If Redwood became leader the infighting and vitriol on Europe might continue and he'd weaken the Tory position further. Maybe this could cause the Europhiles to join the Pro-European Conservative Party and maybe if things get really bad the LibDems could overtake the Tories. Not sure but it could work. How do you think Redwood would do as leader in 1997? How could he win the 1997 leadership election? I think if he gets to the final round he could win narrowly. Thatcher would endorse him against Clarke. And he had gotten 80 votes in 1995 (admittedly from a lot more MPs) and might be able to rally enough Eutosceptics for a slim majority. Your thoughts? How does Redwood become leader in 1997 (after the landslide defeat)? How does his leadership go? What would be the effects? What if?
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Have him not have challenged Major in 1995, then maybe he can have a shot. You still have the issue that it's John Redwood, but that's the best chance he'll have.
 
In this scenarione, could the Tories split?maybe Europhiles like Clarke join the Pro-Europhiles Conservative party and the Tories are crushed.
 

Quebec_Dave

Banned
Would it be at all feasible for Redwood to win the leadership election, lose the 2001 general election but get a result similar to Michael Howard's result in OTL 2005. With less Labour MP's during the 2003 Iraq War vote, Blair loses the vote, resigns and then Redwood defeats the Labour Party led by Gordon Brown in a snap 2003 poll?
 
Would it be at all feasible for Redwood to win the leadership election, lose the 2001 general election but get a result similar to Michael Howard's result in OTL 2005. With less Labour MP's during the 2003 Iraq War vote, Blair loses the vote, resigns and then Redwood defeats the Labour Party led by Gordon Brown in a snap 2003 poll?

That's an interesting thought, but I'm pretty sure Redwood would go in the opposite direction, or at least stand still. Redwood was a hardcore Eurosceptic and right-winger, to the best of my knowledge, on the right of the party, and a Redwood leadership would probably be IDS writ large, if not worse and trigger a split in the party when it was most vulnerable. Portillo keeping his seat could produce an outcome like the one you described.
 

Quebec_Dave

Banned
How could Redwood be elected leader? How would him bing leader effect the party? Thoughts?

I think the best course of action would be something, whether it be scandal or something else, that occurs during the 1995 leadership election. It would ideally occur after the close of nominations but before the Conservative MP's vote in the Major vs. Redwood ballot.

Even then, I doubt a honest majority of MP's would prefer Redwood. However, if enough are passed off at Major and vote for Redwood in a protest vote to try and kick off a second round, Redwood could end up getting elected in spite of himself and the wishes of the parliamentary party.

Wasn't the 1975 leadership election somewhat similar as Thatcher won against Heath on a protest vote that got out of hand. I read somewhere that she was intended to serve as a stalking horse, force Heath's resignation and then the party could elect a more "electable" successor.

Anyway, I think a Redwood victory in the 1995 leadership contest has about a 95% chance of leading to an even worse electoral defeat in 1996/1997 (Redwood might try to try his hand at an earlier poll). I also think that due to butterflies, there is about a 5% chance he leads the party inexplicably to victory. I don't really see much room for a middle option whereby he loses but with an improved performance over OTL's 1997 result. It is either a worse defeat or a miraculous victory.

The question is this. In OTL, the Tories won 166 seats and lost, IIRC 172. How many more seats could the Tories lose before their long term future as a party becomes compromised. It took them almost a decade for them to have a serious chance of government again. At some point, are the losses just so severe that their ability to recover a la the Liberals in 1922 becomes a serious possibility or even probability? after a certain point, do party grandees like George Osborne, David Cameron or Boris Johnson conclude that the Conservatives have no long term prospects and decide to pursue careers on the private sector and decline to stand for election in the 2001 General Election?
 
I think the best course of action would be something, whether it be scandal or something else, that occurs during the 1995 leadership election. It would ideally occur after the close of nominations but before the Conservative MP's vote in the Major vs. Redwood ballot.

Even then, I doubt a honest majority of MP's would prefer Redwood. However, if enough are passed off at Major and vote for Redwood in a protest vote to try and kick off a second round, Redwood could end up getting elected in spite of himself and the wishes of the parliamentary party.

Wasn't the 1975 leadership election somewhat similar as Thatcher won against Heath on a protest vote that got out of hand. I read somewhere that she was intended to serve as a stalking horse, force Heath's resignation and then the party could elect a more "electable" successor.

Anyway, I think a Redwood victory in the 1995 leadership contest has about a 95% chance of leading to an even worse electoral defeat in 1996/1997 (Redwood might try to try his hand at an earlier poll). I also think that due to butterflies, there is about a 5% chance he leads the party inexplicably to victory. I don't really see much room for a middle option whereby he loses but with an improved performance over OTL's 1997 result. It is either a worse defeat or a miraculous victory.

The question is this. In OTL, the Tories won 166 seats and lost, IIRC 172. How many more seats could the Tories lose before their long term future as a party becomes compromised. It took them almost a decade for them to have a serious chance of government again. At some point, are the losses just so severe that their ability to recover a la the Liberals in 1922 becomes a serious possibility or even probability? after a certain point, do party grandees like George Osborne, David Cameron or Boris Johnson conclude that the Conservatives have no long term prospects and decide to pursue careers on the private sector and decline to stand for election in the 2001 General Election?

That's an interesting scenario too. So let's say the Currie affair comes out days before the voting. It's the final straw, and in a surprise result Tory MPs sack 'Deadwood' Major in a protest vote and Redwood becomes PM. Ken Clarke and several other Europhiles resign in protest, there are even a few defections to the LibDems among some MPs. Tory poll numbers receive an initial bounce, but soon fall even harder. Redwood promises a referendum on EU membership, the fighting worsens and several Tory MPs defect in a vote of no confidence, calling a 1996 election as the government falls.

1996 UK election:
Tony Blair-Labour: 447+174 45.2%
John Redwood-Conservative: 115-221 25.7%
Paddy Ashdown- LibDem: 68+50 19.8%
659 seats
330 for majority


Redwood resigns in disgrace with even worse losses. Not sure how it goes from here.

But sticking with the original scenario, what if Redwood won the 1997 leadership election? Might the Tories split?
 

Quebec_Dave

Banned
That's an interesting scenario too. So let's say the Currie affair comes out days before the voting. It's the final straw, and in a surprise result Tory MPs sack 'Deadwood' Major in a protest vote and Redwood becomes PM. Ken Clarke and several other Europhiles resign in protest, there are even a few defections to the LibDems among some MPs. Tory poll numbers receive an initial bounce, but soon fall even harder. Redwood promises a referendum on EU membership, the fighting worsens and several Tory MPs defect in a vote of no confidence, calling a 1996 election as the government falls.

1996 UK election:
Tony Blair-Labour: 447+174 45.2%
John Redwood-Conservative: 115-221 25.7%
Paddy Ashdown- LibDem: 68+50 19.8%
659 seats
330 for majority


Redwood resigns in disgrace with even worse losses. Not sure how it goes from here.

But sticking with the original scenario, what if Redwood won the 1997 leadership election? Might the Tories split?

The Currie affair breaking in between the close of nominations and the leadership vote is an interesting POD. Would it be possible for someone like Ken Clarke to immediately cross the floor to the LibDems? Ken Clarke seems like someone that could easy fit in the Orange Book wing of the party without too much ideological discomfort. He might still decide not to cross the floor for personal reasons unless others that share his wordldiew joined him. After all, switching parties after a lifetime of membership means breaking a lot of friendships! Having to make friendships anew at his age (Clarke is already 55 years old in 1995) might give him pause...

Let's say he does do it? Could Paddy Ashdown make him Shadow Chancellor or Shadow Home Secretary after a year or so in the party and proving that his conversion wasn't just a fit of pique? Would it give the Lib Dem stronger economic bona fides in the next election that could give them official opposition status. I doubt they would want to go straight from third party status to government. It would be like the dog that got the car. Parties that go from third party status to government and bypassing officiL opposition status tend to end in failure.

Furthermore, if the moderates like Ken Clarke scupper off, could it butterfly UKIP becoming a major force. I know it was founded in 1993 but was a micro party attracting about 0.2% of the vote. Furthermore, if it is no longer the government-in-waiting, would it tend to attract people like Nigel Farage whereas people like George Osborne, David Cameron and Boris Johnson decide to go into the private sector? I could see a Conservative Party in perpetual third place with Bill Cash as leader ITTL 2016 with Nigel Farage as Spokesman for Chancellor of the Exchequer. After all, a party with no hope of government has the luxury of ideological purity.
 
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