AHC/WI: International recognition for the First Philippine Republic

One of the reasons why the First Philippine Republic was denied a spot during the negotiations at Paris in 1898 (which led to the Treaty of Paris) was that it wasn't recognized by any country as a sovereign entity. The question is, what should the Philippines do (or should've done) in order to acquire recognition (at least 1 or 2) from other nations, especially the world powers?
 
That was very hard, especially in the late 19th century. How about Latin American countries like Mexico and Colombia?
 
One of the reasons why the First Philippine Republic was denied a spot during the negotiations at Paris in 1898 (which led to the Treaty of Paris) was that it wasn't recognized by any country as a sovereign entity. The question is, what should the Philippines do (or should've done) in order to acquire recognition (at least 1 or 2) from other nations, especially the world powers?

The reason why it wasnt recognize by treaty of Paris was American influence. Getting a great power to recognize by the treaty of Paris was too late.

Recognition is highly doable as long as you got an earlier POD, with the right people and the right connections.

The most crucial really of recognition is if a part of Spanish government recognizes independence as well. You will need the Insulares/Criolles for that though. A possible example is if the Insulares army beats the Spanish army then rebels negotiate a peaceful settlement with the remaining Spanish colonial government with recognition of independence and freedom for the remaining Spanish. The Cortes has a possibility of not recognizing the treaty until a decade or so.
 
Given an earlier POD, what are the nations that most likely to recognize an independent Philippines?

Depends on who is the leader of the Philippines, who is negotiating in behalf of the Philippines, the current condition of who is control of the Philippines and the vested interest of each Great power in time of the negotiation.

It can be all the great powers including Spain or none of them.

An example of this in OTL Biak na Bato is Aguinaldo is the leader of the Philippines, Pedro Paterno is the negotiator, Spain is in full control of the Philippines, while no great power is yet willing to participate in the revolt.

For example sake in ATL 1878 peace treaty, Ferdinand La Madrid is the leader of the Philippines, Dr. Antonio M. Regidor y Jurado negotiated in behalf of the rebels. The rebels are in full control of the Philippines, while Spain has recognized independence.
 

SunDeep

Banned
Well, if it's slightly less militaristic, the Japanese would be the obvious candidates. Of course, it'd only be a sovereign entity to the same extent as the puppet state of Manchukuo, but it'd still be an improvement over the US stance towards the Philippines for the next fifty years or so. And if they get involved early enough, with the Aguinaldo reaching out to them instead of to the USA and the Americans never getting involved in the conflict, what other assets do the Americans have in the region for them to feel threatened by the expansionism of the Imperial Japanese, impose sanctions and set the chain of events in motion which would lead to Pearl Harbor and the Pacific Theatre of WW2?
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
One way is for Philippine propagandists (if they have any and if they do not they need some) to be more prevalent in the United States to support independence from Spain, just like the Cuban revolutionaries did to gain US support. If you get enough sympathy towards the Philippines then the Teller Amendment might replace Cuba with or also include the Philippines as non-annex able territory.
 
Well, if it's slightly less militaristic, the Japanese would be the obvious candidates. Of course, it'd only be a sovereign entity to the same extent as the puppet state of Manchukuo, but it'd still be an improvement over the US stance towards the Philippines for the next fifty years or so. And if they get involved early enough, with the Aguinaldo reaching out to them instead of to the USA and the Americans never getting involved in the conflict, what other assets do the Americans have in the region for them to feel threatened by the expansionism of the Imperial Japanese, impose sanctions and set the chain of events in motion which would lead to Pearl Harbor and the Pacific Theatre of WW2?

Yes, on an earlier POD Japan can recognize Philippines. 1898 is too late for Japan to recognize the Philippines due to US participation.

An earlier POD can change the players of the Philippines which can change the result of what is happening the Philippines.

Aguinaldo had a choice really to whom he can reach out but it would be off character for him not to choose USA. It would be easier if it were an illustrado doing the reaching out. That would be sure to reach out to Japan, Germany or Britain in that order. Another issue in OTL is Aguinaldo did reach out to France first. But France rejected in support of Spain. So getting France help instead of USA is a possibility.

But all of these will require an earlier POD, via sending diplomats earlier to give up concessions to the great power or showing military success in winning vs Spain.

One way is for Philippine propagandists (if they have any and if they do not they need some) to be more prevalent in the United States to support independence from Spain, just like the Cuban revolutionaries did to gain US support. If you get enough sympathy towards the Philippines then the Teller Amendment might replace Cuba with or also include the Philippines as non-annex able territory.

This seems impossible unless in an earlier POD. Another issue what is the reason to send your children to USA to study when everyone wants to study in Europe back in these days in the Philippines.

The reason why Cuba propagandist went there is because of the proximity of Cuba to USA and the Monroe doctrine. Philippines does not apply to either one.

The earliest possible recognition of the USA is 1889 when Rizal wrote Filipinas dentro de cien años. But that would require Filipino leaders reading it and applying it. This would require a change in the players/leaders in Philippine revolt just to even recognize these.
 
How about late 1896 or 1897 as PODs?

Recognition comes with something that Philippines can offer. Will require total military victory in 1896 which can lead to recognition by Spain or great power.
This will also require changing of players/leaders in ATL.

Insulares leading the revolt are key to this. Besides offering military power, They are still Spanish if you disregard the social caste system. So, it may be easier for the west and Spain to recognize Philippines under their leadership since we know Spain was very racial.
 
Will require total military victory in 1896

Wouldn't that be ASB? The revolution is just in it's initial stages. The ilustrados are still hesitant to join, and the insulares are still an unknown factor.

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Speaking of insulares, which person/people do you have in mind to become one of the revolution's leaders?
 

Mercenarius

Banned
The most crucial really of recognition is if a part of Spanish government recognizes independence as well.

Which government are you referring to, the colonial or the central?

A possible example is if the Insulares army beats the Spanish army then rebels negotiate a peaceful settlement with the remaining Spanish colonial government with recognition of independence and freedom for the remaining Spanish.

How about the friars? They won't easily accept this. There's a possibility that they'll pull the same stunt they did to Ramon Blanco before the ink touches the paper.
 
Wouldn't that be ASB? The revolution is just in it's initial stages. The ilustrados are still hesitant to join, and the insulares are still an unknown factor.

1823, 1872 was an Insulares revolt. Total military victory aint ASB as long as you have all the right ingredients. Imagine if you got 1823, 1872 and 1896 revolt happening at the same time.

OTL 1896, illustrados were hesitant because of Rizal and it is more considered an indio revolt with little expectation of having any success.

It takes one day for the Insulares to take all the Spanish forts since they are already inside the forts or have allies inside. An example of a one day seizure are 1823 taking of Intramuros or the 1872 Fort San Felipe. They even killed the lt gov general and the former gov general in 1823.

However, if you want an all indio revolt, it is ASB for them to win a total military victory in 1896.

Which government are you referring to, the colonial or the central?

Colonial. If the colonial government has no option but to sign the peace treaty since they have lost to the rebels much like in mexican war of independence. The spanish cortes will not recognize independence immediately just like OTL Spanish Americas.

How about the friars? They won't easily accept this. There's a possibility that they'll pull the same stunt they did to Ramon Blanco before the ink touches the paper.

You are thinking that an Indio is leading. If an Insulares is leading, the friars will accept due to Spanish racial inclination. Regardless if they accept or not, cannot do anything about it if a gun is pointing at the friars since it would be a total military victory. The friars will prefer an Insulares leading rather than indio. This already happened in OTL Mexico where a Criolle led rebels won that war and the Spanish accepted a peace treaty.
 
I've just read Rizal's Dentro de cien años. Now I realize there's a big chance of Britain recognizing Philippine independence as long as Manila is open for international trade. I've just have to worry about France, Germany and Japan.
 
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