AHC/WI Independent Southern China

Just as you said in your post, I'll say that Chiang was really just as bad as Mao, with the 30 year "state of emergency" and the white terror which has made him a hated person in modern Taiwan. While he's arguably better at running a nation than a peasant boy (Mao), it'll be quite some time before Southern China becomes strong. Maybe a larger and more totalitarian version of early South Korea.
At least under Chiang you ain't starving.China literally wasted 30 years because of Mao Zedong.
 
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OTOH, if Chiang *did* abandon Manchuria, *he*, or at least his successor, would have had the last laugh. Its status as a Soviet puppet state, whose population is vastly larger than any Warsaw Pact state, and who overwhelmingly identify with an enemy Republic of China, would be a nightmare at the Kremlin. Imagine how many Soviet troops need to be stationed throughout Manchuria to fend off the almost constant anti-Soviet uprisings. Imagine the extra Soviet troops stationed along the Sino-Soviet/Manchurian/Mongolian borders facing a rising US ally. It might even lead to an earlier fall of the USSR.

Why would they identify with the enemy Republic of China anymore than the Taiwanese identified with the enemy People's Republic of China or the North Koreans with the enemy South Koreans? With Mao and the Chicoms in the saddle, backed by the Soviets, I think it would make a nice little satellite state. The only problem you might have would be Manchu 'localisers', but even that would be several decades down the road.

And I can't see even CKS being crazy enough to attack a Moscow-backed 'People's Republic of China' (or would the ROC demand they be referred to as "Chinese-Changchun"?)
 
Why would they identify with the enemy Republic of China anymore than the Taiwanese identified with the enemy People's Republic of China or the North Koreans with the enemy South Koreans? With Mao and the Chicoms in the saddle, backed by the Soviets, I think it would make a nice little satellite state. The only problem you might have would be Manchu 'localisers', but even that would be several decades down the road.

And I can't see even CKS being crazy enough to attack a Moscow-backed 'People's Republic of China' (or would the ROC demand they be referred to as "Chinese-Changchun"?)
The ROC would demand they be called Gongfei(Chinese for Communist bandits) like they've always called them :D.
That would be an ironic twist, but then, would China minus Manchuria still be “southern” china?

No,it's legitimacy would be indisputable since it controlled China proper.
 
No,it's legitimacy would be indisputable since it controlled China proper.
What I meant was since a internationally recognized China is so much more powerful than Manchuria, would it still be considered "Southern" China? For example, no matter how things are officially, Taiwan is generally not seen as "Eastern China", likewise, Manchurian Commies would just be seen as Manchria.
 
What I meant was since a internationally recognized China is so much more powerful than Manchuria, would it still be considered "Southern" China? For example, no matter how things are officially, Taiwan is generally not seen as "Eastern China", likewise, Manchurian Commies would just be seen as Manchria.
Not southern China.The ROC would be referred expressly and solely as China while PRC would be referred to as Manchuria in international relations.
 
How about an earlier Sino-Soviet Split, with the USSR controlling Xingjang (as a SSR/ASSR), creating a separate Manchu puppet state (With some of Liaodong/Dalian a Kaliningrad-like entity+pro soviet border adjustments) a more USSR influenced North Korea (maybe Kim-Il-Sung asks for a more northern korean border+Vladivostok to Dalian railway) and a slightly expanded Mongolia?

Thus weaking the Mao so that they have a stalemate with the KMT (with more support from the US) at the Huai River. And maybe KMT incompetence/ corruption eventually causes more breakup (Tibet,Yunnan,Southern China,Taiwan)

So basically a China-screw. :p
The KMT would probably not conquer Tibet but I don´t see it breaking up that way at least not easily as it could seem. Yunnan even if full with non-Han ethnicities is not homogeneous enough to create separatism, Guangxi is in a better position for that though.
I think that the USSR would make Xingjang a puppet and inner Manchuria a Republic under direct control.
 
The KMT would probably not conquer Tibet but I don´t see it breaking up that way at least not easily as it could seem. Yunnan even if full with non-Han ethnicities is not homogeneous enough to create separatism, Guangxi is in a better position for that though.
I think that the USSR would make Xingjang a puppet and inner Manchuria a Republic under direct control.
Why wouldn't the KMT conquer Tibet? It's not like anyone would stop them, not the Soviets, not the Americans, and Chiang would be very happy to reunify China.
 
Why wouldn't the KMT conquer Tibet? It's not like anyone would stop them, not the Soviets, not the Americans, and Chiang would be very happy to reunify China.
In the case of 2 Chinas with the border at the Huai river the south would have hard time invading Tibet from there(or at least I think). Plus it would have to compromise with the West(UK, USA and France) over some issues because they helped and are still helping them during the civil war. I´m not sure what the borders with it would be? The Sichuan Basin? The current ones with the Tibetan autonomous region? No idea.
 
In the case of 2 Chinas with the border at the Huai river the south would have hard time invading Tibet from there(or at least I think). Plus it would have to compromise with the West(UK, USA and France) over some issues because they helped and are still helping them during the civil war. I´m not sure what the borders with it would be? The Sichuan Basin? The current ones with the Tibetan autonomous region? No idea.
It'll be brilliant propaganda. I figure that both Chinas would be racing for Tibet. India would probably like a authoritarian republic more than a communist dictatorship on their border, considering India probably won't be able to maitain a neutral Tibet.

Anyways let's get back to Pre-1900.
 
In the case of 2 Chinas with the border at the Huai river the south would have hard time invading Tibet from there(or at least I think). Plus it would have to compromise with the West(UK, USA and France) over some issues because they helped and are still helping them during the civil war. I´m not sure what the borders with it would be? The Sichuan Basin? The current ones with the Tibetan autonomous region? No idea.
Hard doesn't mean it couldn't be done.KMT troops will be much better trained,experienced and equipped then the Tibetan guys.Besides,I highly doubt the UK,USA and France cares about Tibet if it ain't for the fact that OTL China became Communist.They probably want to make sure Tibet doesn't go Red as well,this will directly connect India with the USSR,and we all know that India has a special relationship with the USSR.Who knows what would happen if those two are directly connected.During the early 1900s,the British actually invaded Tibet thinking that the Russians would take over Tibet once they have taken over Xianjiang and use it as a springboard to invade India.
 
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Why would they identify with the enemy Republic of China anymore than the Taiwanese identified with the enemy People's Republic of China or the North Koreans with the enemy South Koreans? With Mao and the Chicoms in the saddle, backed by the Soviets, I think it would make a nice little satellite state. The only problem you might have would be Manchu 'localisers', but even that would be several decades down the road.

And I can't see even CKS being crazy enough to attack a Moscow-backed 'People's Republic of China' (or would the ROC demand they be referred to as "Chinese-Changchun"?)

It would more resemble East Germany where the overwhelming majority of the people identified with the enemy west. Manchuria's population, BTW, would be greater than all the Warsaw Pact states combined, not entirely a "nice little" satellite. For Mao's own purposes, he would have to declare his fiefdom as the PRC, and the only legitimate government of China. Stalin would play along as he usually does in these situations. Mao himself would die in a tragic accident before long, as he had already shown his willingness to defy the Soviets. And, the ordinary steel worker in Changchun would view this just as he viewed the Manchukuo regime - as an illegitimate puppet. This would require a huge Soviet military presence, with the Soviet Ambassador vetting members of the PRC Politburo, the mayors of cities, the ministers, etc. All this simply means more anti-Soviet uprisings on the line of Budapest or Prague, and an earlier stagnation of the Soviet economy.
 
Would it be possible for the Taiping to defeat the provincial armies along the Yangtze, while still being unable to march on Beijing, so you get a Northern Qing, while leaving the Yangtze and Pearl Rivers in Taiping hands?
 
Would it be possible for the Taiping to defeat the provincial armies along the Yangtze, while still being unable to march on Beijing, so you get a Northern Qing, while leaving the Yangtze and Pearl Rivers in Taiping hands?
But the Qing had western support.
 
Parliament came very close to acknowledging the Taiping as belligerents in a civil war, as opposed to simply rebels, but the measure was not voted on, since it was argued that doing so would be redundant. If they actually hold the vote, the Taiping cause gets a massive shot in the arm, since they can now contract loans, buy heavy weapons, etc.

Alternatively, the Union can crush the Confederacy much faster, so the British aren't forced to chose which of their key markets to intervene in.

It's certainly not impossible for Zeng's army to just collapse; the siegeworks outside Nanjing held on by a thread, and they only got that far because the lion's share of the Taiping army was concentrated in Jiangnan, letting the Xiang Army advance down the river with the speed and smoothness of splitting bamboo.
 
Parliament came very close to acknowledging the Taiping as belligerents in a civil war, as opposed to simply rebels, but the measure was not voted on, since it was argued that doing so would be redundant. If they actually hold the vote, the Taiping cause gets a massive shot in the arm, since they can now contract loans, buy heavy weapons, etc.

Alternatively, the Union can crush the Confederacy much faster, so the British aren't forced to chose which of their key markets to intervene in.

It's certainly not impossible for Zeng's army to just collapse; the siegeworks outside Nanjing held on by a thread, and they only got that far because the lion's share of the Taiping army was concentrated in Jiangnan, letting the Xiang Army advance down the river with the speed and smoothness of splitting bamboo.
Wasn't it said that at one point Zeng Guofan was extremely close to committing suicide?
 
One point? He attempted it twice, once by riding into a hurricane of bullets and a second time by drowning, but survived. Not sure about other times he considered it, but there were many times when he thought his army would be overrun and butchered. During the siege of Anqing, Li Xiucheng's massive army burst out through a mountain pass thought impassible on its way upriver, and Zeng set a copy of his will to his sons.
 
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