AHC/WI: Independent Khuzestan

Khuzestan in the south west of Iran is an interesting place. It's among the most ethnically diverse, wealthiest, most populous and oil rich provinces in Iran. It's considered an integral part of Iran by the Iranians and has been associated with many persian states for thousands of years. At least since the fall of the Ottoman empire their has been unrest and separatism in Khuzestan, especially among the Arabs.

Are there any plausible alternate histories, with POD in the 20th century, that could have led to a sovereign Khuzestani state?

What would an independent Khuzestan look like, internally and in its foreign relations? I imagine it would be on poor terms with its neighbours Iran who might look to reclaim it, and with Iraq who has an unhappy shia population. Are their any probable allies besides the USA and USSR?
 
Iran sides more with the axis during WWII, possibly nationalizing the oil companies,and the British invade and create the Khuzestan state to secure their oil supply and punish Iran. The Soviets would presumably pick off the Azeri areas in the north.
From there it could develop like Kuwait and basically rely on western (British at first) guarantees, or, given its hostile presumably pro western neighbors (the Gulf monarchies for its Shi'ite faith, Iran and possibly Iraq for irredentist reasons) it goes the Arab republic route and sides with Egypt and the USSR. At some point there's probably a crisis where Iran tries to pressure Khuzestan by closing the Persian gulf to their oil exports. Internally Khuzestan is likely to be a nominal republic (likely dominated by Arab interests), since hereditary governorship were a thing of the past at this point AFAIK. Given the oil reserves its possible that Khuzestan becomes a beacon of pluralism and tolerance in the middle east, but given its ethnic makeup, strategic value, and irate neighbors a civil war is just as likely.
 

Deleted member 94680

A treaty after the Anglo-Persian War cedes Khuzestan to Britain along with Herat? Early I know, but historically more plausible.

During WWI the British end up fermenting revolt in the region to provide a base to invade Iraq from?

The 1921 coup is limited to independence for "Arabistan" rather than the deposing of the Qajari dynasty?

The 1941 coup is limited to independence for "Arabistan" rather than replacing the Shah with Mohammad Reza Pahlavi?
 
See my post "Kuchak Khan and the Gilan Soviet Republic" https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/kuchak-khan-and-the-gilan-soviet-republic.339145/ I note there:

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If Kuchak Khan would attempt to take over not just Teheran but all Persia, I suppose that even Lloyd George, who favored a less aggressive Persian policy than Curzon, would object, but I am not certain what he would do. At the very least, there could be an attempt to detach Khuzistan and other oil-rich parts of the south from Persia. Actually, the British attempted to do this even with Reza Khan in OTL:

"[On becoming prime minister in 1923] Reza Khan also retained his post as minister of war and continued his efforts to suppress the tribes and rebellious elements in Kurdistan, Azerbaijan, Fars, Mazandaran, Luristan, Gorgan. Khorasan, and Baluchistan. None of these campaigns was easy, but the riskiest move by far was the decision in 1924 to attack Sheikh Khazal of Mohammareh in Khuzistan (then called Arabistan). It was rumored that Ahmad Shah was inciting Sheikh Khazal in order to make trouble for Reza Khan, and the British certainly regarded him as a key protege in the web of petty emirates they had created around their interests in the Persian Gulf. Khazal had refused to pay taxes, written the Majles to complain that Reza Khan was a menace to the shah, and plotted to have Khuzistan incorporated as part of the British mandate in Iraq; Britain warned Reza Khan against intervening and sent gunships to the area. Unintimidated, Reza Khan caled the bluff and marched on Mohammareh in person. In the end, the British were more concerned about damage to their oil installations than Sheikh Khazal's autonomy and did nothing to defend him. He quickly surrendered and was later arrested and sent into a comfortable exile in Tehran. Probably no other event so enhanced Reza Khan's reputation as his willingness to confront the British lion in one of its chief lairs." Elton L. Daniel,*The History of Iran* (Greenwood Press, second edition 2012), pp. 135-6. https://books.google.com/books?id=mri93AaexX8C&pg=PA135

With Reza Khan, the British were just bluffing; with Kuchak Khan, given his anti-British, pro-Turkish, pro-German, and pro-Bolshevik past (even if he were to break with the Bolsheviks), they might actually insist on the separation of Khuzistan and use force to accomplish it. It could then become the same target for Iranian irridentists that Kuwait would be for Iraqis...
 

Deleted member 94680

Instead of Irak, how about the British have a set of three Emirates in Kuwait, Basrah and Arabistan? Concentrate the resources used to control Iraq to secure Arabistan (and its oil) and just the shoreline of Basrah?
 
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