AHC/WI: In 1940, Stalin invades the whole of Romania rather than just Bessarabia

Deleted member 97083

Would it be possible with a POD after the Winter War to have Stalin invade Romania with the intent of making the entire country into a puppet state or SSR? Would this happen in the same timeframe as the acquisition of Bessarabia or could it happen any time before Romania joined the Axis? What would the result of such an invasion be? Would it help or hurt the Soviets in defending against Barbarossa?
 
assume this is not done in concert with Germany? and most likely done while they are invading France?

the best case for Soviets would probably be they force their way to the oilfield region, despite their own military problems they control nearly all German oil supplies.

the worst case they are stuck along Prut or Siret River, Germany and Hungary are able to occupy Transylvania and install puppet Iron Guard regime in the rest.
 
assume this is not done in concert with Germany? and most likely done while they are invading France?

the best case for Soviets would probably be they force their way to the oilfield region, despite their own military problems they control nearly all German oil supplies.

the worst case they are stuck along Prut or Siret River, Germany and Hungary are able to occupy Transylvania and install puppet Iron Guard regime in the rest.

The Germans would never let the Soviets close to the Ploiești oil fields. The most likely scenario is that Romania refuses to peacefully hand Bessarabia and Northern Bukowina and the Soviets and the Nazis agree that an independent Romania is a danger to their interests and decide to jointly invade and occupy Romania. The Germans would back the Hungarians and the Bulgarians to claim the entirety of Transylvania and Dobruja, while they militarily occupy Wallachia, while the Iron Guard takes power and Horia Sima is proclaimed Conducător in a WW1 replay, while the Soviets occupy form the Moldovan SSR of the entirety of Moldova. King Carol and the Great Voivode Michael would try to escape to Britain, if the Legionnaires won't capture and execute them. Horia Sima would join Hitler in his invasion of the Soviet Union and would continue to Stalingrad. TTL Romania would perform way badly, as Sima won't try to sign an armistice, the leaders of PNȚ and PNL would be imprisoned and later executed and Romania won't be able to switch sides, which would ease the Communist takeover and, worse, Romania could remain just Wallachia, as the Soviets could claim that they are refounding the Principality of Moldova and the Hungarians would claim that Transylvania was always theirs, tough I could see the Western Allies trying to at least get for Romania a border on OTL Northern Transylvania.
 
I agree that this can't be done without German support. Because of Ploiesti I don't see that happening. Stalin would never have invaded unilaterally. It would have provoked war with Germany which he desperately wanted to avoid.
 
I agree that this can't be done without German support. Because of Ploiesti I don't see that happening. Stalin would never have invaded unilaterally. It would have provoked war with Germany which he desperately wanted to avoid.

Hitler would not let his war for Lebensraum be turned into a war fought on the territory of the "stupidest people of Europe". Even if Stalin had the interest to have sattelite states in the Balkans, and he had in OTL before Barbarossa, he would negotiate with Hitler for them, as Molotov tried in OTL, but Hitler refused. Unlike Hitler, Stalin was extremely paranoic and cautios and he was not prone to impulsive actions.
 
Hitler would not let his war for Lebensraum be turned into a war fought on the territory of the "stupidest people of Europe". Even if Stalin had the interest to have sattelite states in the Balkans, and he had in OTL before Barbarossa, he would negotiate with Hitler for them, as Molotov tried in OTL, but Hitler refused. Unlike Hitler, Stalin was extremely paranoic and cautios and he was not prone to impulsive actions.
Yes, agreed again. Is that what Hitler called the Romanians? An insult from that vile little man is a positive recommendation for the rest of us.
 
Yes, agreed again. Is that what Hitler called the Romanians? An insult from that vile little man is a positive recommendation for the rest of us.

It's not exactly a quote, but I've understand so. The only Romanian whom he admired was Marshall Ion Antonescu, and that was because he considered him a German in thought and admired his patriotism, while he considered the Romanians unworthy of him. In fact, after Mussolini, Antonescu was Hitler's closest foreign ally.
 
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The Germans would never let the Soviets close to the Ploiești oil fields. The most likely scenario is that Romania refuses to peacefully hand Bessarabia and Northern Bukowina and the Soviets and the Nazis agree that an independent Romania is a danger to their interests and decide to jointly invade and occupy Romania. The Germans would back the Hungarians and the Bulgarians to claim the entirety of Transylvania and Dobruja, while they militarily occupy Wallachia, while the Iron Guard takes power

of course Germany would never willingly allow the Soviets near the Romanian oilfields, the OP is unclear on when this occurs, if it is during invasion of France then Germany would have few options to stop them.

agree with your projected division of Romania, have always wondered if Germany and USSR had left Finland and Baltics out of their agreements but dealt with Romania (as they had defensive agreement with Poland)
 
of course Germany would never willingly allow the Soviets near the Romanian oilfields, the OP is unclear on when this occurs, if it is during invasion of France then Germany would have few options to stop them.

And, again, why would such a cautious man like Stalin invade Romania despite not first formally agreeing with Hitler? Like he was thinking Hitler was like: "The Soviets start an invasion without notifying us first, their allies, and while we are busy with the invasion of France. Nothing strange." Even when he started to invade and occupy Eastern Europe in 1944, he still had to agree with Churchill how much he would influence those countries (altough he only wanted to formalise his ability to influence, not it's limits), and those were countries that started the war first. As I said, as cruel and bloodthirsty as he was, Stalin was always extremely cautious, because he knew that both Hitler and Churchill did not saw him as a true ally, but as the lesser of two evils.

agree with your projected division of Romania, have always wondered if Germany and USSR had left Finland and Baltics out of their agreements but dealt with Romania (as they had defensive agreement with Poland)

I think that Stalin saw both Finland and the Baltic states as better second and third targets, because Romania, like Poland, also had defensive pacts with France and Britain and who knows? Maybe King Carol II could better convince the British and the French to launch a Second Saar winter offensive? Hitler wouldn't like to face a maybe "true" offensive, just because Stalin can't wait to settle the score with Romania until after he would deal the death blow to France. Also, who knows, maybe not wanting to look weak in front of their people for failing to defend two of their allies from the Soviets and the Nazis, the Allies would even bombard the Caucasian oil fields?
 
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