AHC/WI: Great Depression just a Panic of 1929

Challenge: Have OTL's Great Depression just be a Panic of 1929, like the Panic of 1907.

What are the effects of this? (The Nazi Party's rise to power is probably butterflied away, as well as FDR's presidency and the New Deal)
 
Tough one. Aside from the residual effects of the Great War there were some questionable economic policies by many governments. If one accepts long cycle economic theories then the effects of the Kondratieff cycle has to be somehow reduced, and there is the theory of the rate of change in population growth, or other analysis concerning large and painful shifts in labor needs between the agricultural and industrial sectors.

A lot of economic changes came to a head in the 1920s/30s. Some are well understoood, some not, and some only speculation. No single theory adaquately explains the global miasma that set in. Rather there was a sort of collision of several major shifts in global and regional commerce.
 
Youre going to get a depression, as the boom was unsustainable. However, if the crash happened in '28, say, the results wouldnt be nearly as bad, and smoot hawley or equivalent might not happen, or at least be milder.

Youre also still going to get the drought and dust bowl in north america, which is going to be nasty.

However, itcould be a 'lost decade', and bad economic times rather than the calamity of otl.

If a wwii still happens, which is not at all obvious as hitler is rather unlikely to gain power, the us will start from a higher level of industry ... but there wont be as much slack in the economy.

Chances are theres some minor wars in cental europe. Maybe a great war against communism in the late '40s?
 
Will Kürlich Kerl said:
as well as FDR's presidency and the New Deal
If the economy crashes, Hoover will be defeated anyhow.

More to the point, the economy had underlying problems of overproduction (on the lunatic theory, prevalent at the time, production created demand:eek::confused:). Plus, there was the issue of farms on marginal land (in Oklahoma, particularly), which would be worsened with the upcoming drought, so you get Dust Bowl anyhow.

In all, it ain't so easy to avoid the Depression.

Bigger question is, can you avoid making it worse? Did FDR's response, inflating wages to help create demand, do that? Would a Republican PotUS reacting differently have made it more Great Recession? There is a chance a different PotUS vetoes Hawley-Smoot, tho, so...
 
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