AHC/WI: Goldwater vs McGovern

CaptainRex

Banned
It was said that 1964 was the only time the Far-Right took over the Republican Party. It was said that 1972 was the only time the Far-Left took over the Democratic Party.

But, both times saw the parties lose in a landslide. Both candidates were painted as radicals and several members of their parties voted for the other. Both left their parties deeply divided as the establishment and moderates refused to support them. Both ran against popular incumbents. Both would be examples for their parties later on of what not to do.

Their names were Barry Goldwater and George McGovern. What if they ran against each other? Assuming the electorate is not favoring a certain party, such as 1960 or 2000.

Time frame could be 1960-1976. Both are running hard left or right. And neither are incumbents. No 3rd party.

Who wins in the ultimate ideological showdown?
 
I did a map on this before:

And its counterpart:
genusmap.php


Democratic: George McGovern (South Dakota)/Sargent Shriver (Maryland) - 372 EVs, 51.8%
Republican: Barry Goldwater (Arizona)/William E. Miller (New York) - 166 EVs, 48.2%



Basically, I just pit Goldwater's votes from 1964 against McGovern's votes from 1972, since the elections were only eight years apart and wouldn't have needed a population adjustment.
 
Basically, I just pit Goldwater's votes from 1964 against McGovern's votes from 1972, since the elections were only eight years apart and wouldn't have needed a population adjustment.
1972 saw a bunch of new voters though, due to the voting age being lowered three years.
 

CaptainRex

Banned
I did a map on this before:





Basically, I just pit Goldwater's votes from 1964 against McGovern's votes from 1972, since the elections were only eight years apart and wouldn't have needed a population adjustment.
I see, so McGovern did better in 1972 yet loss more states then Goldwater. Interesting. In this map, why would more prefer him then Goldwater.
 
I did a crude population correction (Goldwater '64/'64 two-party total)*('72 two-party total). It's closer, and closer than the electoral college vote suggests: Ohio is 50.8% to 49.2%, California is 50.6% to 49.4%, and Illinois is 50.1% to 49.9%.

genusmap.php


Democratic: George McGovern (South Dakota)/Sargent Shriver (Maryland) - 327 EVs, 48.9%
Republican: Barry Goldwater (Arizona)/William E. Miller (New York) - 211 EVs, 51.1%
 
I see, so McGovern did better in 1972 yet loss more states then Goldwater. Interesting. In this map, why would more prefer him then Goldwater.
Well, as Emperor Julian said, the voting age was lowered by three years, and many of the new voters were college students, most of who were anti-war and would've voted for the anti-war McGovern over the pro-war Nixon. Plus, there was a population increase anyways, since it was nearly a decade later.
I did a crude population correction (Goldwater '64/'64 two-party total)*('72 two-party total). It's closer, and closer than the electoral college vote suggests: Ohio is 50.8% to 49.2%, California is 50.6% to 49.4%, and Illinois is 50.1% to 49.9%.

genusmap.php


Democratic: George McGovern (South Dakota)/Sargent Shriver (Maryland) - 327 EVs, 48.9%
Republican: Barry Goldwater (Arizona)/William E. Miller (New York) - 211 EVs, 51.1%
It's weird how, apart from West Virginia, South Dakota, Alaska, and Missouri, that map looks like something that could still happen today.
 
I'm guessing McGovern wins the EC despite losing the popular vote on account of Goldwater wracking up uselessly high margins in the South, while McGovern had wider geographic support.
 
It's weird how, apart from West Virginia, South Dakota, Alaska, and Missouri, that map looks like something that could still happen today.

The electoral college vote would be much closer today, though: 287 EVs for McGovern to 251 for Goldwater.
 
I'm guessing McGovern wins the EC despite losing the popular vote on account of Goldwater wracking up uselessly high margins in the South, while McGovern had wider geographic support.

More or less.

genusmap.php


Which I think says something about the country. Very interesting.

It says that we're living with Goldwater's GOP and McGovern's Democratic Party ;)

I wonder: How well would an independent moderate (Anderson) or populist (Perot) do in this election?
 
I see, so McGovern did better in 1972 yet loss more states then Goldwater. Interesting. In this map, why would more prefer him then Goldwater.

Goldwater was an extremist. McGovern wasn't—he was essentially Humphrey policy-wise, just openly antiwar. The main reason he lost so badly is that his reformation of the primary process earned him the hatred of the unions and Democratic Old Guard. If McGovern hadn't done that, he would've been a plain ol' liberal Democrat.
 
Goldwater was an extremist. McGovern wasn't—he was essentially Humphrey policy-wise, just openly antiwar. The main reason he lost so badly is that his reformation of the primary process earned him the hatred of the unions and Democratic Old Guard. If McGovern hadn't done that, he would've been a plain ol' liberal Democrat.
It also didn't help that a lot of his supporters thought he was liberal than he actually so their campaigning made him seem like a far left extremist.
 
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