Getting H. W. Bush re-elected in 1992 is not extremely difficult. The recession of 1991, especially when compared to the recessions of 1982 and 2008, was not particularly long or severe. The economy was definitely weak, but it wasn't so weak that a Bush Sr. re-election is ASB, like Hoover, Carter, or the GOP's 08 candidate.
The 1991 recession, IMHO, was brought about largely by the slight oil shock on the eve of the first Gulf War, the Fed keeping interest rates high for a bit longer than usual (probably still with 70s inflation on their mind), and the end-of-Cold War defense spending cuts. These 3 factors were enough to take some money out of the economy and produce a recession, but alter them a bit and maybe the recession is less severe.
Now, Bush I was not very charismatic and had trouble connecting with people, so he's not winning re-election by a landslide, but the possibility is definitely there.
Now, what happens if he gets re-elected? That's a tougher question for me to answer. There's no way he passes any major domestic policy initiatives (he's weak on that issue, he's lame duck, Dems still control Congress...). The real interesting question is how he proceeds with Iraq. He received some flack for letting Hussein stay in power in 1991. Does he keep with the sanctions, like Clinton, or does he try to oust Hussein, like his son?
The 1991 recession, IMHO, was brought about largely by the slight oil shock on the eve of the first Gulf War, the Fed keeping interest rates high for a bit longer than usual (probably still with 70s inflation on their mind), and the end-of-Cold War defense spending cuts. These 3 factors were enough to take some money out of the economy and produce a recession, but alter them a bit and maybe the recession is less severe.
Now, Bush I was not very charismatic and had trouble connecting with people, so he's not winning re-election by a landslide, but the possibility is definitely there.
Now, what happens if he gets re-elected? That's a tougher question for me to answer. There's no way he passes any major domestic policy initiatives (he's weak on that issue, he's lame duck, Dems still control Congress...). The real interesting question is how he proceeds with Iraq. He received some flack for letting Hussein stay in power in 1991. Does he keep with the sanctions, like Clinton, or does he try to oust Hussein, like his son?