AHC WI: George H W Bush Is Re-Elected

Getting H. W. Bush re-elected in 1992 is not extremely difficult. The recession of 1991, especially when compared to the recessions of 1982 and 2008, was not particularly long or severe. The economy was definitely weak, but it wasn't so weak that a Bush Sr. re-election is ASB, like Hoover, Carter, or the GOP's 08 candidate.

The 1991 recession, IMHO, was brought about largely by the slight oil shock on the eve of the first Gulf War, the Fed keeping interest rates high for a bit longer than usual (probably still with 70s inflation on their mind), and the end-of-Cold War defense spending cuts. These 3 factors were enough to take some money out of the economy and produce a recession, but alter them a bit and maybe the recession is less severe.

Now, Bush I was not very charismatic and had trouble connecting with people, so he's not winning re-election by a landslide, but the possibility is definitely there.

Now, what happens if he gets re-elected? That's a tougher question for me to answer. There's no way he passes any major domestic policy initiatives (he's weak on that issue, he's lame duck, Dems still control Congress...). The real interesting question is how he proceeds with Iraq. He received some flack for letting Hussein stay in power in 1991. Does he keep with the sanctions, like Clinton, or does he try to oust Hussein, like his son?
 
I'd say the interest rates PoD will be good. Do you think that Bush would win a close one like Bush 2004, or will Bush win a relatively comfortable victory like Obama in 2012? Would unemployment TTL be just below 7% or about 5.5%?
 
I'd say the interest rates PoD will be good. Do you think that Bush would win a close one like Bush 2004, or will Bush win a relatively comfortable victory like Obama in 2012? Would unemployment TTL be just below 7% or about 5.5%?

It would be a bit much for me to speculate as to the precise economic conditions in 1992 even if interest rates are kept low. There are just too many factors, besides the ones I mentioned, that can influence the economy. I will point out that even before the recession, the Reagan-Bush administrations were taking criticism for the top-heavy nature of the economic growth, and the concerns about the U.S. losing its manufacturing base were coming to a head in 1992. This basically means that even with the unemployment rate a few percentage points lower, Bush has his work cut out for him in 1992.

Let me put it this way, if you're an incumbent president and 1) someone from your own party challenges you in the primaries; 2) an independent candidate enters the race, exploits public dissatisfaction with both parties, and gets nearly 20% of the vote; and 3) your traditional party opponent maintains a large lead over you for most of the summer and ends up winning by a fairly comfortable margin, then voters are not very happy with the way things are going. I would put an Obama 2012 level solid but unspectacular victory as the best case scenario for Bush I.
 
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