AHC/WI: GDR Forever

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
So, what if the German Democratic Republic existed up to today, and how could this be achieved in a way that isn't GDR-Wank or ASB?
 
You need the Soviet Union to survive and still be protecting the GDR from its own people. But that requires a POD of at least the 1950s or 1960s to achieve.
 
It could happen if you just prevent reunification in 1990. That would require several things:

- A West German chancellor who is more reluctant towards reunification. That could be someone from the younger generation Social Democrats (like Oskar Lafontaine) or some reactionary CSU type who isn't keen on recognising the Oder-Neisse line as the definite German border with Poland.

- A stronger and more populist civil rights movement in the GDR. The earliest activists of the 1980s, who later formed the New Forum, were the ones who were most strongly opposed to quick reunification in 1989/90, which is why they fell out of favour with the wider public. So they'd just have to reach the majority of the people somehow. Which brings us to...

- The FRG as an alternative would have to be a less attractive model than in OTL. So: no "economic miracle" in the 1950s and no socially liberal reforms of the early 1970s. Possibly an even more extreme RAF terrorism, more ex-Nazis in the government and a declining economy with high unemployment rates.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
It could happen if you just prevent reunification in 1990. That would require several things:

- A West German chancellor who is more reluctant towards reunification. That could be someone from the younger generation Social Democrats (like Oskar Lafontaine) or some reactionary CSU type who isn't keen on recognising the Oder-Neisse line as the definite German border with Poland.

- A stronger and more populist civil rights movement in the GDR. The earliest activists of the 1980s, who later formed the New Forum, were the ones who were most strongly opposed to quick reunification in 1989/90, which is why they fell out of favour with the wider public. So they'd just have to reach the majority of the people somehow. Which brings us to...

- The FRG as an alternative would have to be a less attractive model than in OTL. So: no "economic miracle" in the 1950s and no socially liberal reforms of the early 1970s. Possibly an even more extreme RAF terrorism, more ex-Nazis in the government and a declining economy with high unemployment rates.

West Germany doesn't recover so well in the '73-'74 crash or Black Monday goes far worse could make the prospect of reunification seem shaky and the New Forum gains more support as a result.

An event during the process of reunification was when Kohl suggested the Polish government don't get preparations in exchange for recognizing the O-N Line, which led to a threat of the international community stepping in to keep Germany separate (there were talks that if Poland refused then the lost territory would be taken by force, if need be). EDIT: This would mean Margret Thatcher is right though.

A more active RAF? A worse crash of '74 could stir up support, a Troubles/Basque like conflict occurring. If it gets too bad in the FRG, we could see the reunification movement go for a GDR led Germany (although given how NATO would be completely against this, continuing separation is more likely).
 
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Another version would be a "Finlandized" east germany, which has a democratically elected leftist government but strong motivations (voluntary or otherwise) to demilitarize and stay out of the east-west divide. They are more like Finland in their social welfare sytem, they become a nuclear-free zone and an earlier adopter of green party politics which becomes the main rival to the SPD as the KPD loses power later on.

Over the 40-50 years of the cold war DDR evolves its own institutions and its own politics which do not mesh well with more conservative FRG politics and FRG industrial policy which includes coal and nuclear power.
 
West Germany decides reunification is not feasible until the mid 90s.

A socialist-liberal party with a neoliberal economic program wins the 1990 East German elections. It starts to sell East German state-owned companies, factories and collective farms to West German entrepreneurs, as a move to keep the country from crashing in debt. Instead of using the resulting money to fix the economy, the money is covertly distributed among Stasi agents who turned into mafioso hippies overnight and became high-raking cadres in the ruling party.

The living standards of East Germans start to fall. Shops are flooded by Western products, but they are too expensive to buy. People are sacked from factory jobs by their new, profit-oriented West German bosses.
They are free to travel to the West, but have no money to do it. Even a summer vacation in Hungary with the Trabbi is out of the question, gasoline is just too expensive for it.

Without the OTL post-unification Solidarity Tax, and the pre-1990 Soviet Aid, East Germany looks worse than ever. Buildings collapse, the streets are lined with beggars and the homeless.

Those that travel to West Germany and try to set up unofficial street-side markets to sell Chinese, Polish and Russian products, are routinely caught and punished by the West German police.

1993:

East Germans are sick of West German tourists who drink gallons of beer and vomit all over their streets, brake windows while partying wildly and pick up tons of prostitutes.

The average East German doesn't have the means to eat real meat regularily, just canned products, and soy-based salamis.

The leader of the party lives in a villa in Pankow and goes on vacations to Hawaii and Tahiti.

early 1994:

After a wide-scale demonstration against the ruling party, the Prime Minister smugly proclaims: "You can leave East Germany. Go! If you don't like it here, if you can't live here, then scram!"

This causes widespread outrage and a mini-revolution that leaves East Berlin trashed.

mid 1994:

New election. A self-proclaimed National Communist party wins the elections by a landslide, promising among other things to restore 1989 living standards and rid the country of "evil imperialist West Germans". It proclaims "We will never unify with them."

1995:

The like-minded Lukashenko wins the elections in Belarus. East Germany finds a new ally, and with it, a bridge to new economic connections with Russia.


2015:

The German Democratic Republic is an "island of Eurasianism" in the blue sea of Schengen countries. Living standards are similar to the Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia. The political landscape is relatively homogenous. Those that don't agree with the government's views already left for West Germany in the 90s.
 
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While many had OTL anticipated a slow reunification or no reunification at all post-1989, my own belief is that the logic of full reunification would have reasserted itself under almost any circumstance like OTL. The problem was that the East German state apparatus quickly collapsed. And unlike every other communist state, every East German had the right to emigrate and claim citizenship of the FRG. That meant that you quickly had people fleeing as the economy and structure collapsed.

Berlin was crucial for this. There's a reason the wall was built in the first place. So my own feeling is that this requires a POD where there's no division of Berlin. Perhaps the Western Allies decide to abandon West Berlin in the late 1940s. The East Germans will then be able to seal the borders. Maybe then in some alt-Ostpolitik era, a more secure GDR is able to agree to reforms; in exchange, the FRG tightens their East German immigration policy.

Then when and if the Communist regime falls, the East German state will be more viable and won't have the same threat of massive brain drain. This kind of GDR might well remain. "Reunification" may just mean joining the EU, and remaining as a second German state within the EU.
 
West Germany decides reunification is not feasible until the mid 90s.

A socialist-liberal party with a neoliberal economic program wins the 1990 East German elections. It starts to sell East German state-owned companies, factories and collective farms to West German entrepreneurs, as a move to keep the country from crashing in debt. Instead of using the resulting money to fix the economy, the money is covertly distributed among Stasi agents who turned into mafioso hippies overnight and became high-raking cadres in the ruling party.

The living standards of East Germans start to fall. Shops are flooded by Western products, but they are too expensive to buy. People are sacked from factory jobs by their new, profit-oriented West German bosses.
They are free to travel to the West, but have no money to do it. Even a summer vacation in Hungary with the Trabbi is out of the question, gasoline is just too expensive for it.

Without the OTL post-unification Solidarity Tax, and the pre-1990 Soviet Aid, East Germany looks worse than ever. Buildings collapse, the streets are lined with beggars and the homeless.

Those that travel to West Germany and try to set up unofficial street-side markets to sell Chinese, Polish and Russian products, are routinely caught and punished by the West German police.

1993:

East Germans are sick of West German tourists who drink gallons of beer and vomit all over their streets, brake windows while partying wildly and pick up tons of prostitutes.

The average East German doesn't have the means to eat real meat regularily, just canned products, and soy-based salamis.

The leader of the party lives in a villa in Pankow and goes on vacations to Hawaii and Tahiti.

early 1994:

After a wide-scale demonstration against the ruling party, the Prime Minister smugly proclaims: "You can leave East Germany. Go! If you don't like it here, if you can't live here, then scram!"

This causes widespread outrage and a mini-revolution that leaves East Berlin trashed.

mid 1994:

New election. A self-proclaimed National Communist party wins the elections by a landslide, promising among other things to restore 1989 living standards and rid the country of "evil imperialist West Germans". It proclaims "We will never unify with them."

1995:

The like-minded Lukashenko wins the elections in Belarus. East Germany finds a new ally, and with it, a bridge to new economic connections with Russia.


2015:

The German Democratic Republic is an "island of Eurasianism" in the blue sea of Schengen countries. Living standards are similar to the Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia. The political landscape is relatively homogenous. Those that don't agree with the government's views already left for West Germany in the 90s.

So basically like an amplified version of OTL Hungary?
 
Well, you could have Britain and France sustain the GDR against its own people out of irrational post-WWII Germanophobia, threaten to respond to reunification attempts with military invasion, etc.
 
Well, you could have Britain and France sustain the GDR against its own people out of irrational post-WWII Germanophobia, threaten to respond to reunification attempts with military invasion, etc.

Well, that wouldn't work too well, at least in the case of France...I think people there were more OK with German reunification, and Mitterrand wasn't as antagonistic as Thatcher was (he had a much better relationship with Kohl than Thatcher did, to say the least).
And it's been said that Thatcher's attitude towards German reunification led to her downfall from the Tory leadership...
 
Well, that wouldn't work too well, at least in the case of France...I think people there were more OK with German reunification, and Mitterrand wasn't as antagonistic as Thatcher was (he had a much better relationship with Kohl than Thatcher did, to say the least).
And it's been said that Thatcher's attitude towards German reunification led to her downfall from the Tory leadership...

That's a POD right there. Britain is a bigger ass about it, Mitterrand and Kohl team up to tell Britain to piss off, and as a result, Britain is permanently alienated from Europe?
 
That's a POD right there. Britain is a bigger ass about it, Mitterrand and Kohl team up to tell Britain to piss off, and as a result, Britain is permanently alienated from Europe?

Well, Mitterrand had issues with German reunification, but it wasn't to the same extent as Thatcher, at least...
I do know that Thatcher's expectation that Mitterrand would team up with her against Kohl turned out to be a bit fantastical (due to the fact that Mitterrand felt that he could temper the geopolitical repercussions of reunification with "deepening" of European integration-popularly put as "reunification for euro", though that's exaggerated...which was possible because both of them were strongly supportive of European integration, but Thatcher wasn't), which she felt was a mistake on his part (according to her memoirs).

So maybe this could be a possibility...but I'm not 100% sure...

But Thatcher is going to get pwned really bad if she does...her whole party considered her nuts anyway OTL...and the British people were OK with reunification too...
 

Realpolitik

Banned
Soviet Union has to survive and want the GDR to stay around. No way around that one.

And mind you, Brezhnev actually preferred Brandt to Honecker, which really scared the East Germans.
 
Soviet Union has to survive and want the GDR to stay around. No way around that one.

And mind you, Brezhnev actually preferred Brandt to Honecker, which really scared the East Germans.

Not necessarily. East Germany had deep left of center support in 1946. Had the USSR not been so quick to put the boot down and just let DDR grow its own politics, 40 years of divergence might be enough to avoid reunification. A finlandized demilitarized but democratic and neutral DDR that develops more along the lines of a Scandinavian social welfare state and left of center politics would not be happy to reunify with a conservative social market state like OTL FRG especially on social issues like abortion, nuclear power, use of coal,etc.

An honest democratic DDR might also have less heavy industry and be focused on light consumer goods, electronics, and light industry. It would likely be a nuclear free zone and probably based on natural gas from USSR.
 
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