AHC/WI: Garðaríki Stays Norse

As the title states, is it possible for/how could Garðaríki to be largely Nordicized or is it destined to stay Slavic? What would be the potential effects of a continued Nordic Garðaríki?
 
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Honestly that's very unlikely. I mean it's somewhat quesitonable whether they ever where nordic, let alone the fact that given the lack of Nordic influence on modern Slavs they almost certainly where so outnumbered by Slavs as to be completely subsumed.
 
In the 8th/9th c. and parts of the 10th c. there's Norse-associated artifacts all over the waterways along the Volga trade routes, so the "forts" in "Gardar" - were probably held by some Scandinavian-heavy merchant/warrior caste.

There's a transition period where these sites are burned, the rebuilt as "Rus" sites - Nordic but with much more noticeable Slavic elements.

These sites are generally abandoned by the end of the century and all the action moves to nearby satellite towns instead. It's also the period where raids on the Caspian end, and Norse/Slav trade settlements in Bulgar lands get abandoned. People are coming not to trade but to tax, not to raid but to live. Nonetheless the Byzantine treaty texts has a lot of Scandiavian names, and few Slavic ones, as well as some of unknown origin. Scandinavians are present but some of them already have Slavic patronymics. This isn't assimilation no more than 12th c. Black Hats are assimilated, but it's an indication that they are taking on local customs.

By the 11th c. there are only two places where the Norse are present in any numbers: Ladoga (even had its own Jarl as a vassal of the Princes of Novgorod), and Kiev itself (serving in the Guard). These are all people with strong connections to Norway or more rarely Sweden who aren't destined to survive as a long-term native population. Those who do and enter Rus nobility in this period and later are basically Russian (Slavic names and all) within a generation or two.

So that's what happened IRL.

Here are your problems with "Norse" Gardariki:

The Russian Finnic peoples have a distinct agriculture and that is less efficient than what the Slavs bring. Norse agriculture is more cold-adapted and intermediate between the two. The Slavs colonised the Finnic lands most thoroughly within a few hundred years.

Slavs have assumed population advantage. The only way to beat the Slavs in the numbers game is to drain swamps and do other heavy infrastructure improvements. That's basically what German colonization of Slavic Europe is about.

The Norse, however, have no record of achieving anything much like that outside Denmark, and what Denmark had is less sophisticated what the Rus produced around Kiev.

Initially Nordic warrior elites were successful because of access to Frankish steel and better warband organisations, with east-Slavic organisations being more family based and their leadership more sacral than military. Once that is rectified (by importing the Rurikids, for example), there is no real advantage to having Norse warriors over Slavic warriors in your retinue or your militia.

In fact, Sweden struggled to get its act together in the organisational sense until the mid-13th c. and Norway only started heading that way in the 11th c.

The Rus (now pretty Slavic) managed to colonize and consolidate a huge territory in the meanwhile, and then break apart and form several regional centres each of which was individually a match for say, Sweden.

Nonetheless, Varangians remain useful to the princes of Rus through to the 12th c. in some capacity. Their kings were kin to the ruling dynasty, yes, but they also had a tradition of military adventuring, so it was easy to raise a large force quickly for long-distance campaigns. Vladimir and Yaroslav both relied heavily on them and that was pretty late.

However, somewhere in the 11th c. we start seeing a paradigm shift in warfare in Eastern Europe:

Polish national armies beat Varangian-heavy Russian forces on several occasions. Yaroslav's Varangian force gets crushed by Mstislav's Severian levies and southern (Circassian, Alan, Pecheneg) knightly retinue. The shift towards cavalry changes the cost of maintaining private armies, leads to the rise of a sort-of-feudalism, and makes little distinction between Khazars, Hungarans, Slavs, Pechenegs, Cumans, Black Hat, Finnic, Nordic, Polish, Armenian...whatever....in princely service. Family ties back in Norway are no advantage at all by mid-1100s.

The only use of Varangians is that they are allowed to be money-changers along with the Jews and likewise get targetted in city mob riots. Militarily they are nothing special and have basically been involved in a long string of defeats. Demographically they can't compete with the Slavs (Russia reached the Pacific by the time Sweden got serious about Lappland). Culturally and materially the Baltic advantage (also probably enjoyed by archeologically/onomastically-attested Prussian and Wendish settlers of early Novgorod) disappears by the mid-10th c.

Kiev's clerics look to Constantinople, Denmark and Norway's to Bremen. There's no shared culture any more.

By the early 1100s, Russia has delineated tax districts from the White Sea to the Dniepr Rapids, a single nominal exchange currency, and tell-tale mass-produced goods which identify the settlement as "definitely Rus" from the Donets to Ladoga (writing styluses and stone spinning weights from Ovruch). None of that needs any Scandinavians at all.

It's a hard general trend to buck.
 
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katchen

Banned
Yes indeed. In fact it was a hard trend for the Swedes to buck in order to keep themselves independent. When Alexander Nevsky beat the Swedish Army, Finland, according to a TL in which there was an independent Finnish Kingdom, only had 50,000 people. The Slavs could just as easily have conquered them as the Swedes did. And if they had, Swedish Nordland to Galve and Norwegian Norrland and Tromso and Finnmark north of Namsos could have been conquered by the Rus as well, putting the Russians within striking distance of Uppsala, pagan Sweden's cult center, and Stockholm. Then the question becomes, can a rump Sweden hold it's own (Norway almost certainly can in it's mountain fastness). But with Russia extending to the Norwegian Sea and year round commerce, the Principiate of Novgorod is a much more important player on the stage of northern and western Europe ITTL. And all Russia after Muscovy unifies with it.
 
RGB has mostly covered it but also look at the international comparisons of small Nordic descent warrior elites taking over and setting up polities: Normandy, Sicily, England and Ireland. In all four cases within a few generations they had been assimilated into the native culture with a few generations varying from 1 or 2 in Sicily to 3 or 4 in England.
 
RGB has mostly covered it but also look at the international comparisons of small Nordic descent warrior elites taking over and setting up polities: Normandy, Sicily, England and Ireland. In all four cases within a few generations they had been assimilated into the native culture with a few generations varying from 1 or 2 in Sicily to 3 or 4 in England.

Is it possible to get a much larger amount of Nordic settlers into Russia then or is it just not that attractive to the Danes, Norwegians and Swedes as a place to settle?
 
RGB has mostly covered it but also look at the international comparisons of small Nordic descent warrior elites taking over and setting up polities: Normandy, Sicily, England and Ireland. In all four cases within a few generations they had been assimilated into the native culture with a few generations varying from 1 or 2 in Sicily to 3 or 4 in England.

Actually Norman England took a relatively long time to assimilate. Of course the Normans themselves were already assimilated to being french by then anyway so it's an imperfect example.
 
Actually Norman England took a relatively long time to assimilate. Of course the Normans themselves were already assimilated to being french by then anyway so it's an imperfect example.

A much better comparison would be the Danelaw. Lasted a fairly long time, but nothing decisive.

In fact Orkneys and Shetlands are the only cases of the Norse assimilating/replacing others in the middle ages; they even got assimilated into Gaelic nobility in the Hebrides/Man!
 
The only way it works is if there is sufficient population of Norse that would have a reason to remain culturally separate over the Slavic people they rule over. You need several things to happen.

1) There needs to be an ongoing population boom in Scandinavia to provide the emigrants. I'm not sure how long the Viking population boom lasted.

2) The area or Gardariki needs to be attractive to attract a large number of these emigrants. This will be hard because Western Europe is wealthier at this point, and thus a more tempting target. Tha area's trade routes lost their significance in the 11th century due to the decline of the Abbasid Caliphate and its silver production, and that the Crusades opened up an alternative trade route to the East. So to keep the trade routes lucrative, we'd probably need a scenario where the Abbasid Caliphate stays important and Byzantium is never defeated at Manzikert and loses control of the Jerusalem pilgrimage routes. The two may have a unified POD where a powerful Abbasid Caliphate keeps the Turks out of the Middle East.

3) The enlarged Nordic population of Gardariki has a reason to continue ties to Scandinavia instead of looking to Byzantium or Slavs. This is probably impossible for the cities down south in what is now Ukraine, but could be possible for the northern cities like Novgorod. We may need stronger/earlier state building in Sweden and a stronger wave of Latin Christianization that causes the northern cities to pull into the Latin Germanic orbit rather than the southern Orthodox orbit. Meaningful contact between the elites of northern Gardariki and Sweden would help keep the language and culture strongly tied.

4) At some point you need to expand beyond the cities, nobles, and visiting merchants and really get some settlers onto the land. That could mean opening up virgin land, or it may mean replacing the existing Slavs with new people.

The critical years are probably in the 900s and 1000s. Then that needs to be built on with further prolonged immigration. It could be done, but it would be very hard. And it would likely only make the northern tier of cities culturally Nordic. We're probably only talking about the areas of the Novgorod Republic, Polotsk, and maybe Smolensk. Kiev, Chernigov, and Moscow are probably going to remain Slavic.
 
1) There needs to be an ongoing population boom in Scandinavia to provide the emigrants. I'm not sure how long the Viking population boom lasted.

This part is hella tricky. The initial boom is somewhere in the 8th c. but the immigration waves and military advantage end up a generation later and by 1050-ish *Russia doesn't need Varangians any more.

So you have somewhat like a century and a half to work with at best.

The area or Gardariki needs to be attractive to attract a large number of these emigrants. This will be hard because Western Europe is wealthier at this point, and thus a more tempting target.

Midden finds suggest that transit and trade with Gardariki was relatively quick and Russian-transit grave goods outnumber Frankish and English ones. So the "rich" part is there, attractive perhaps not so much because Russia is dangerous wild country full of unconquered nations and steppe Empires nibbling at the edges.

3) The enlarged Nordic population of Gardariki has a reason to continue ties to Scandinavia instead of looking to Byzantium or Slavs. This is probably impossible for the cities down south in what is now Ukraine, but could be possible for the northern cities like Novgorod. We may need stronger/earlier state building in Sweden and a stronger wave of Latin Christianization that causes the northern cities to pull into the Latin Germanic orbit rather than the southern Orthodox orbit. Meaningful contact between the elites of northern Gardariki and Sweden would help keep the language and culture strongly tied.

This need a really early POD, possibly before Svyatoslav (incidentally first prince with a Slavic name of the Rurikids). He wanted to move his capital all the way to Pereslav in Bulgaria :p

Incidentally, the population of Kiev threatened to burn the city and move to Bulgaria as well when confronting Izyaslav Yaroslavich in the mid-11th c. Must be the climate.

Maybe have his poorly attested (but Scandinavian-named) relative Uleb take over (supposedly he was a Christian - ?)

Of course there's lots of speculation in avoiding the Rurikids altogether since they are second wave and then there's Askold and Dir (who supposedly reigned in Kiev) who predate Oleg. Lots of questionable historiography around that period.

4) At some point you need to expand beyond the cities, nobles, and visiting merchants and really get some settlers onto the land. That could mean opening up virgin land, or it may mean replacing the existing Slavs with new people.

And here's the real problem: there is less Norsemen. They aren't in any way more advanced than the Slavs as far as farming goes. Their great early advantage is their ships and access to Frankish steel. Their houses look more impressive compared to the Slavic dug-ins but that's neither here nor Baghdad.

The critical years are probably in the 900s and 1000s. Then that needs to be built on with further prolonged immigration. It could be done, but it would be very hard.

Earlier is better. By the mid-1000s the Varangians are verging on military irrelevance. How are they going to maintain themselves in a hostile land?

I might point back to the layer of ash and ruins that characterizes almost all the older Varangian sites in Russia and dates somewhere to second half of the 9th c. That's a very good possibility if they do not accommodate the locals into their system.

And it would likely only make the northern tier of cities culturally Nordic. We're probably only talking about the areas of the Novgorod Republic, Polotsk, and maybe Smolensk. Kiev, Chernigov, and Moscow are probably going to remain Slavic.

Polotsk and Smolensk along with Rostov all have distinctly Slavic names even in Scandinavian chronicles. They are also different tribes from the Ilmen Slavs and the Pskov Krivichi who formed part of the first Rus (along with the Varangians, Chud' and Ves').

A Norse Gardariki is more likely if it focuses entirely on areas where penetration was heavy to start with and where the local population could be overwhelmed with immigrants eventually.

The area around Novgorod proper is cold enough to have Norse farming stay competitive with Slavic colonists, is thinly enough populated, and if they are more numerous than the Krivichi and Ilmen Slavs perhaps they can assimilate the local Finns also. So Novgorod, Ladoga, Russa, Izborsk, Pskov, maybe Beloozero and the empty lands to Bjarmia.

Anything more than that is asking more than a lot, and this would probably mean a heavy focus solely on Gardariki which to be honest no Scandinavian state could bankroll so you need lots of fortunate accidents to make it happen.
 
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Actually Norman England took a relatively long time to assimilate. Of course the Normans themselves were already assimilated to being french by then anyway so it's an imperfect example.

Unlike Garðaríki the Angevin Empire had massive land holdings in the France and close proximity you actually had two contradictory things happening. At the upper end you had the Court becoming Francised with Parisian French replacing Norman French, the influence of the troubadour culture of Occitan etc. so the Norman language and culture of William the Conqueror (which was very distinct from Parisian French) was dying off at the top. And at the bottom you had the Manorial Lords and Knights and a few of the more remote Northern Barons who were beginning to blend in with the people around them rather than a distant court or their grandparents.
So you had this real split developing between the Magnates, Court and Royal Family on one hand who spent much of their time in France and the lower echelons of the Norman population.
 
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