AHC/WI: France and Prussia on the same side during an equivalent to the 7YW?

Just as it says:

What is the best possible POD as close to the year of OTL's 7YW outbreak as possible to achieve an alliance between Louis XV and Frederick The Great?

What is the best case scenario for the Franco-Prussian side in the event of a victory? What are the long and short term effects?

Thanks in advance, friends.
 
Basically have the British be less perfidious Albion. In OTL the fact that the Austrians couldn't trust them as allies (after all, the British were the masters of dropping allies so they can do their balance of power shtick) led them to actually allying with their longtime rivals in France.
 
This isn't far fetched. France and Prussia had long been allies against the Austria, Britain/Hanover, Netherlands alliance.

Basically, France and Prussia were allies by default as the other powers were allied against them. France's endless conflicts with Britain over the Americas didn't concern Prussia. Prussia's conflicts with the Habsburgs didn't interest France. It was an enemy of my enemy type deal.

It was the severing of the Austrian and British alliance that had protected Hanover for years in the face of Prussian aggression. After the War of Austrian Succession, where Britain did little to support Maria Theresa, she saw no major benefit in supporting Britain and the alliance dissolved. They also did nothing to support Austria in the War of Polish Succession. The Netherlands was declining and was depending more and more on neutrality than arms to protect themselves and would not again play a major part in European affairs.

As is, the Austrian/French alliance was still surprising given their centuries of rivalry over the Holy Roman Empire. It was considered "unnatural". However, Frederick the Great had enraged Maria Theresa by seizing Silesia. There was little chance Britain could or would do much to get it back. The alliance with France was convenient, guaranteeing at least French neutrality in the next war with Prussia.

Britain and Prussia, two countries that didn't like each other, pretty much were forced into an alliance or risk being without allies in the face of a war with a larger land power (Britain against France, Prussia against Austria). It protected Hanover from France (and Prussia).

Meanwhile the relations between Austria and France had improved. Habsburgs no longer surrounded France with the "War of Spanish Succession". Austria was unlikely to pose a threat to France and Louis XV had little interest in the Holy Roman Empire. Basically, they formed a defensive alliance because they no longer had a reason to be rivals.

How to maintain the French/Prussian Alliance?

1.
If you want to go back a ways, then maybe Britain might support Maria Theresa more. If she kept Silesia in the 1840's with British assistance (either troops and/or more gold), she may have seen the alliance in a better light. Also, Frederick would not have been much of a threat to Austria without Silesia's population, wealth and resources.

2.

Start an early war between France and Great Britain, say earlier in the 1750's. before the "Diplomatic Revolution" ever occurred. Austria and Prussia may not want to getting involved in a war started for reasons not their own. The Germans were always going to fight each other again but at the time of their choosing, not Britain and France's.

The 7 years war may play out much the same, with GB and France going at it in Hanover and America, while Austria and Prussia tussle on their own. Two completely separate wars occurring simultaneously.

I suspect the outcome would be largely the same.

France never got involved much with Frederick's armies as they were fight GB/Hanover/Brunswick in Hanover and America.

Austria was the primary antagonist against Prussia. Sweden was a sideshow.

Really, only Russia's involvement was uncertain.

Had Frederick not pissed off most of Europe with his sneak attack on Saxony, then Russia, Sweden, Bavaria may not have jumped in at all.

As is, it really was a miracle that Frederick lasted long enough to see the "Miracle of the House of Brandenburg". He should have been crushed a dozen times over by superior numbers of Austrian/Russia/Swedish/Bavarian troops.

If the Russians hadn't been so ponderous, and the Russian and Austrian Generals had cooperated just a bit more, then Frederick would have been destroyed by 1758.

His Empire would have been dismembered with Austria, Saxony, Russia, Sweden and France all taking a share.
 
If the Russians hadn't been so ponderous, and the Russian and Austrian Generals had cooperated just a bit more, then Frederick would have been destroyed by 1758.

His Empire would have been dismembered with Austria, Saxony, Russia, Sweden and France all taking a share.

Would be interesting to see. Austria takes Silesia back for certain. Jülich-Cleves-Berg could be thrown to Saxony as a bone and to appease the Brits perhaps. Sweden probably takes some of Further Pomerania, and Russia could grab Prussia itself (then perhaps trade it with Poland for Courland)
 
2 points:

1. OTL Timeline

Assuming Prussia is defeated in OTL, then, yes, Austria regains Silesia.

Prussia is taken by Russia and traded for Courland from Poland-Lithuanian commonwealth).

One quick edit: With Prussia nominally part of the weak Polish state, then the Commonwealth is unlikely to be broken up but go on for years as a dysfunctional anarchy. Prussia was the main aggressor with Russia happy to take spoils. Maria Theresa only went in to keep the balance of power. Without Prussia, I don't think Russia will attempt to invade should Austria object. It will continue as a pathetic sprawling barrier state between two stronger powers.

Saxony may get part of Magdeburg for their trouble of being invaded and pillaged.

Bavaria may get the western Prussian duchy's like Berg. Remember that the Elector was about to die childless and his heirs were in the Palitinate so this would make a continigous western territory for the House of Wittelsbach. Though this still leaves the Austrian claims on Bavaria in the War of Bavarian Succession in 1779.

Sweden gets the rest of Pomerania.

Not sure about France. Maybe they take Hanover and trade it for whatever they lose overseas to Britain.

Maybe Britain gives back most of their India gains and there is no Raj. The war may end before Canada and Guadaloupe/Martinique are conquered in totality. This gives France a better bargaining position.George II would happily trade all of this for his German patrimony.

This would be a remarkable departure for western history.

Of course all this is dependent on the war ending before George II dies and his grandson takes over (whom is not interested in Hanover).

Question, what would Louis XV want. If they had conquered Hanover, would he try to trade it back for a few Indian stations knowing that Britain's stronger navy would just take it in the next war?

Or would he try to put a grandson or ally on the throne (the price to be paid by Austria for French assistance was a Frency or French allied place in Germany)?

2. Theorized alternate timeline with Franco-Prussian alliance:

I think the war in Europe ends quickly in Prussia favor provided that Frederick keeps Russia/Bavaria/Saxony/Sweden out of it. One on one, he takes the Austrians.

I think the British and French conflict goes on without overly many changes. British is in a better financial position by not having to totally subsidize Prussia, though they would be supporting Austria.

France is in a better financial position as they won't be subsidizing Prussia so much.

The wild card is if France will take the Austrian Netherlands (Belgium).

Maybe the Dutch Republic, who use the Austrian Netherlands as a barrier to an expansive France, may want to jump in. Britain, who doesn't want France having those Belgian ports, may subsidize an Anglo/Belgian/Dutch/German army in the Austrian Netherlands rather than fighting in Hanover, which is protected by Prussia.
 
Thanks for the input, all

I'm trying to find the absolute worst case scenario for Britain and Austria.

The below is just some ideas to get the conversation going. I'm dying for suggestions as to a best case scenario for Franco-Prussia. Feel free to gracefully reject and correct the following.

So far I'm thinking the sides should go:

Side A:

Britain
Hanover
Austria
Saxony

Portugal either stays out or joins in late

Side B:

France
Prussia
Spain

Russia is either neutral then joins the Franco-Prussian side, or is on this side from the beginning, although I'm not quite sure how plausible this is.

What is the absolute worst case scenario for the Austro-British side?

My initial thoughts (and obviously this war is an area in which I have no expertise and very limited knowledge) is that an extraordinary amount of luck early on leads to huge victories in NA for France and in Europe for Prussia. Britain somehow struggles to successfully attack French colonies and defend her own. When Russia decides to enter the war on the Franco-Prussian side following decisive and unlikely French victories in NA, a combined French, Spanish, and Prussian force (MAYBE) manages a successful landing in Great Britain sacking and occupying London and forcing the British and Austrians to a humiliating peace.

There was a plan to do the above in our TL, but French naval defeats made it impossible. Without these defeats and with the addition of Prussian ground troops and Spanish warships I think it could be accomplished successfully. One of the few invasion of Britain scenarios that I can see being done. Just barely.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_French_invasion_of_Britain_(1759)



I want French control of the Ohio and Mississippi valleys, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, and for Louisiana to remain French. Florida remains Spanish.

The Prussians take Hanover and Silesia? Saxony?

Can the French and Prussians force a Jacobite monarchy in Britain? Ireland?

What could Russia get for its trouble?

How fucked is Austria?

What other territorial exchanges might be possible? How does Europe look following an incredibly fortunate decisive victory for the Franco-Prussian side?

Franco-Prussians wank, Austro-British screw. And... Go.

Sorry if the above is ridiculous. I don't think it's the most plausible route, but it's certainly not impossible. Thanks for your help in advance.
 
If there is no Anglo-Prussian Treaty of Westminster, and if Elizabeth of Russia is ruling, there is no chance of Russia supporting Prussia in the war. Much more likely would be an Anglo-Austro-Russian alliance.
 
If there is no Anglo-Prussian Treaty of Westminster, and if Elizabeth of Russia is ruling, there is no chance of Russia supporting Prussia in the war. Much more likely would be an Anglo-Austro-Russian alliance.

Agreed... the Austro Russian alliance was solid probably the most solid out of all the combatants......Russia receiving Br. subsidies to maintain an army on the borders of East Prussia as late as 1754. both the Tsarina and the Empress were of like mind where Frederick's proper position and subordination should lie.

Frederick pre-empted them in 1755 because his own sources guaranteed that they would attack in the following Spring after Saxony had re armed and built its armies up over the that winter.

France was only guaranteeing neutrality or looking to that with its pre-occupation in the colonies starting to get hot. potential though for an Italian campaign though in a Franco-Prussian alliance...But the Italians were pretty exhausted...and needed that peace.

No Franc- Prussian alliance...probably brings both utter ruin.
 
Agreed... the Austro Russian alliance was solid probably the most solid out of all the combatants......Russia receiving Br. subsidies to maintain an army on the borders of East Prussia as late as 1754. both the Tsarina and the Empress were of like mind where Frederick's proper position and subordination should lie.

Frederick pre-empted them in 1755 because his own sources guaranteed that they would attack in the following Spring after Saxony had re armed and built its armies up over the that winter.

France was only guaranteeing neutrality or looking to that with its pre-occupation in the colonies starting to get hot. potential though for an Italian campaign though in a Franco-Prussian alliance...But the Italians were pretty exhausted...and needed that peace.

No Franc- Prussian alliance...probably brings both utter ruin.

What if an earlier Peter III?

Also, would you mind elaborating on Italy some?
 
What if an earlier Peter III?

Also, would you mind elaborating on Italy some?

Changing anything around Peter III can have some really serious consequences for Prussia; depending on if Catherine's coup still goes ahead, if someone else initiates or if Peter III develops a modicum of political sense.
 
Changing anything around Peter III can have some really serious consequences for Prussia; depending on if Catherine's coup still goes ahead, if someone else initiates or if Peter III develops a modicum of political sense.

But there's no denying that an earlier Peter III would mean Russian entry on the Franco-Prussian side, correct?

Edit: And that a longer lived Peter has potentially good consequences for Russia long term?
 
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