Hey there,
I've been thinking what if Greece joined the Entente in 1915, between September-November. My presumption is that more of the Serbian army is evacuated successfully to Northern Greece, while the Greek army (~200.000 soldiers by OTL 1918) is fully mobilised in reasonable time.
Now, my scenario is thus: Gallipoli is a lost cause, so the Entente withdraws as per OTL and moves some divisions to Thessaloniki, again as OTL. Meanwhile, a stronger Macedonian front is established, as by October the Bulgarians have not yet reached the Serbian-Greek border, so there is some time to prepare a preliminary defence. I presume though, that they would be more successful in Eastern Macedonia and will likely succeed in getting Drama and Kavala as in OTL (although in our timeline, the troops there were ordered not to resist the Bulgarian advanced, but I don't think a successful defence to be very feasible at this point ITTL).
Apart from the Bulgarian army, there is the 11th German army about which I couldn't find numbers to estimate how much of a difference it would make against the Armée de l'Orient ITTL. But the question is, with a stronger Entente at this front, would Austria-Hungary move the 5th Army from Isonzo back to the Bankals [1], or not? How much of a difference its presence could make in Macedonia and how differently would the Italian front unfold?
And, supposing a weaker Austria-Hungary defence or Italy or a stronger Entente presence in Macedonia depending on where will the 5th Austro-Hungarian Army end up; could Austria-Hungary fold by mid-1917? OTL, it was really the Entente breakthrough against the Bulgarians in Dobro Pole that led to the Bulgarian and Ottoman surrenders, which left the road open to the Hungarian plain for the Entente. Would A-H transfer troops for a defence of Hungary/Danube from Italy or Galicia? Could that stop the Entente and would the Italians be kept at bay?
Lastly, if indeed that leads to A-H asking for armistice, what would Germany do? Russia is still in the war (due to knock-off effects, no Kerensky offensive for better or worse), all their allies have surrendered, the Italians are closing in on their southern border. Could they do the desperate thing and try to defend their East? The blockade has not yet hit as hard as late-1918 OTL, probably the Navy in Kiel not going to mutiny. In the West, it's basically still a stalement, as a series of Allied offensive in the area at that time OTL were defeated with heavy losses and there were mutinies in the French army. So, on the one hand they weren't beaten in the West, but they were on the verge of being encircled. Would they fight on? I can only see a desperate attempt to stave off the invaders from all sides in that scenario.
Not to mention what the effects of that could be for Russia.
So, what do you think?
[1] OTL it was in the Balkans but moved to the Isonzo when Italy entered the war.
I've been thinking what if Greece joined the Entente in 1915, between September-November. My presumption is that more of the Serbian army is evacuated successfully to Northern Greece, while the Greek army (~200.000 soldiers by OTL 1918) is fully mobilised in reasonable time.
Now, my scenario is thus: Gallipoli is a lost cause, so the Entente withdraws as per OTL and moves some divisions to Thessaloniki, again as OTL. Meanwhile, a stronger Macedonian front is established, as by October the Bulgarians have not yet reached the Serbian-Greek border, so there is some time to prepare a preliminary defence. I presume though, that they would be more successful in Eastern Macedonia and will likely succeed in getting Drama and Kavala as in OTL (although in our timeline, the troops there were ordered not to resist the Bulgarian advanced, but I don't think a successful defence to be very feasible at this point ITTL).
Apart from the Bulgarian army, there is the 11th German army about which I couldn't find numbers to estimate how much of a difference it would make against the Armée de l'Orient ITTL. But the question is, with a stronger Entente at this front, would Austria-Hungary move the 5th Army from Isonzo back to the Bankals [1], or not? How much of a difference its presence could make in Macedonia and how differently would the Italian front unfold?
And, supposing a weaker Austria-Hungary defence or Italy or a stronger Entente presence in Macedonia depending on where will the 5th Austro-Hungarian Army end up; could Austria-Hungary fold by mid-1917? OTL, it was really the Entente breakthrough against the Bulgarians in Dobro Pole that led to the Bulgarian and Ottoman surrenders, which left the road open to the Hungarian plain for the Entente. Would A-H transfer troops for a defence of Hungary/Danube from Italy or Galicia? Could that stop the Entente and would the Italians be kept at bay?
Lastly, if indeed that leads to A-H asking for armistice, what would Germany do? Russia is still in the war (due to knock-off effects, no Kerensky offensive for better or worse), all their allies have surrendered, the Italians are closing in on their southern border. Could they do the desperate thing and try to defend their East? The blockade has not yet hit as hard as late-1918 OTL, probably the Navy in Kiel not going to mutiny. In the West, it's basically still a stalement, as a series of Allied offensive in the area at that time OTL were defeated with heavy losses and there were mutinies in the French army. So, on the one hand they weren't beaten in the West, but they were on the verge of being encircled. Would they fight on? I can only see a desperate attempt to stave off the invaders from all sides in that scenario.
Not to mention what the effects of that could be for Russia.
So, what do you think?
[1] OTL it was in the Balkans but moved to the Isonzo when Italy entered the war.
