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The challenge here is to get Belisarius, a famous byzantine general who worked for Justinian, on the constantinopolitan throne.
I also want to know what are the ramifications of 'Beli as emperor -- is the italian Gothic War butterflied away? If not, then can Belisarius achieve earlier successes due to no meddling by Justinian? How will relations be with the persians?
 
The challenge here is to get Belisarius, a famous byzantine general who worked for Justinian, on the constantinopolitan throne.
Giving what we know of Belisarius' psychology and own relatively limited ambitions (which really didn't made him a good candidate for leading a palace coup), Justinian's quasi-paranoïa when it came to possible rivals, I don't see it happening really likely.

It doesn't help that the main legitimizing feature Belisarius would have to topple Justinian and get sacred instead would have been his army and military prestige which, ITTL, wouldn't be that big. Or that Belisarius' recent ancestry (possibly Gothic) could represent a non-legal but real lack of legitimacy for pulling this.
 
The challenge here is to get Belisarius, a famous byzantine general who worked for Justinian, on the constantinopolitan throne.
Well, if the PoD is Justinian's sudden death, that is not a great challenge. I mean if at the moment of Justinian's death, Belisarius is already famous enough, and happens to be at the head of a big army - that would be most natural and in best Roman (Byzantine) traditions to put the strongest general on the throne.

But ye, it's hard to imagine Belisarius conspiring against Justinian, not in his character.

I also want to know what are the ramifications of 'Beli as emperor -- is the italian Gothic War butterflied away? If not, then can Belisarius achieve earlier successes due to no meddling by Justinian? How will relations be with the persians?
That depends on the time when Justinian dies. And it also depends on how you perceive Justinian - as a megalomaniac or a great man with a vision.
I mean if Belisarius had become emperor earlier before some megalo-projects of Justinian, some of things might not have happened. I mean there might not have been an attempt of restoration of the Roman Empire in the West, no expensive construction of Hagia Sophia etc.

Justinian was extremely ambitious and ready to take risks.
We don't know that much about Belisarius, as an emperor he might have spent all his reign strengthening and fortifying the Persian and the Balkan border.
Which would have been a sound idea...
 
Emperor of where? Remember there was a plot to give Belisarius the Western Roman throne. After that, Justinian could resign in disgrace & Belisarius could claim the Roman throne with half the Empire`s steel to back it up.
 
Remember there was a plot to give Belisarius the Western Roman throne.
Not really a plot : at best an half-assed last minute offer from Ostrogoths that wanted to give him the imperialship : which Belisarius barely feigned to accept (probably rolling eyes) to take Ravenna smoothlessy. While he did went against direct Justinian orders (which REALLY didn't fared well for his relation with Constantinople) it was for strategical purposes, not political.

Even assuming that Belisarius suddenly change psychologically so deeply that he accepts the offer :

Without reinforcement and supply from eastern Romania (and Italy, in its current state, can't replace both even by far), with a Frankish pressure on the north (they used the general disorder to raid Northern Italy), a bunch of byzantine leaders that were under his commands but historically picked Narses' side before he left Italy rather than his, Goths that could do a "reverse rear alliance" with Justinian (which would probably accepted by an half-paranoid emperor if he tought, as he did, that it would be the first step to a general weakening of Constantinople's power)...

It would simply not work.
 
You'd probably need to get rid of Antonina, for one. Her hold over him (and Theodora's on her) would likely prevent any serious attempts to grab the throne, and her infidelity would always be a liability to maintain the respect of his men and the people. Perhaps have her affair come to light sooner, resulting in Belisarius killing her in a fit of rage and firmly positioning him against Justinian and Theodroa in the aftermath?
 
Belisarius turning against Justinian for reasons of selfish ambition seems unlikely, as noted in previous posts. You need to come up with a different motive, or remove Justinian.

Justinian removed: if Justinian was killed in the Nika riots, Belisarius, as leader of the loyalist troops, could be proclaimed Augustus after defeating the rebels.

Alternate motive: Belisarius, rightly or wrongly, thinks that he or someone close to him is threatened and he has to act out of self-preservation, or to protect his family [give him a son if need be].
 
Belisarius' cohorts become suspicious of Justinians' attempts to have them fail by the diminishing returns in support they receive upon each new campaign. Despite the incredible successes of their leader a feeling of self preservation overcomes them and they conspire to ensure they are not put into further danger by the Eastern Emperor. Each and every soldier is well aware of Belisarius' undying (and rather catastrophic to himself) levels of loyalty to the Empire. They hatch a plot and gather support among nobility in Italy and across the recent reconquests.

They gather enough support to make Belisarius Western Roman Emperor, but they never actually let Belisarius know that he is the Western Emperor and tell him he has been made Exarch of the Western of Empire or something. They act as his his stand in court when dealing with Imperial issues and all Imperial ceremony that requires his presence is conducted with Belisarius being told he is acting as a 'stand-in' for Justinian who cannot attend. From what we know Belisarius may be gullible enough to fall for it.

When Justinian inevitably sends an army to topple the 'rebel' the conspirators can break with the farce and say Justinian has betrayed them and declare Belisarius Emperor.

More of a comic idea than plausible, though.
 
In my ideal "Narses has a heart attack and Justinian learns to trust B." PoD, I could see this not being impossible. It would require two things.

1) Belisarius improves his manpower situation, perhaps he does this by entreating local Romans and Goths (probably the poorest folk) into becoming conscripts - and try and reduce his losses in typical troops by having mostly conscripts fortifying towns, with a core of proper soldiers that are training them to their standard.

2) With a better situation, and later no Narses (and as such no Narses to interpret orders in the worst way possible), Belisarius has more success in the Italian campaign.

3) With more success, there is no need for Belisarius to use the ruse to take Ravenna - and takes it in time for Persia, leaving a capable lieutenant in his place when summoned to fight Persia.

4) Success in Italy and Persia leads Justinian to send Belisarius West (to retake Africa, or invade Spain, you decide). - this leaves Belisarius far away when the Plague of Justinian hits.

5) The Plague hits, and Belisarius is summoned, and told to bring his army back east to protect the Empire.

6) Justinian dies, and the Imperial Family (including Germanus) die. Poof. The leading figure of authority in the city is Theodora, with Belisarius on the frontier. Whilst she hates Belisarius, having him as an ally right now would be good - and offers him joint rule of the Empire. Belisarius accepts, stating that he'll return to the city when the Plague has passed and the defences in the East are reorganised.

7) Plague passes, and Belisarius returns to find Theodora sickly, the last victim of the Plague, having held the Empire together domestically whilst Belisarius has held it together militarily from say... Belisaripolis (nickname for small coastal settlement in Syria that is kept carefully quarantined?) - and on her death is made Emperor Belisarius, Conqueror of Italy and Guardian of the Empire.

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TL;DR - you either have to have a mass death - like I've illustrated, or an appointed inheritance, which is unlikely to impossible. Otherwise it requires a usurpation, and I'm not sure Belisarius can achieve that from his meagre beginnings in the west.
 
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