AHC/WI: Earlier Development of Shale Fracking

Delta Force

Banned
Modern hydraulic fracturing technology was developed starting in the 1980s by George P. Mitchell, who developed the technology for use in shale formations. Starting around the mid to late 2000s the technology began being adopted by energy companies in the United States, leading to a surge of petroleum and natural gas production. Shale gas and shale petroleum reserves exist in other countries as well.

The economics of shale petroleum is such that it would not be feasible prior to 1973 under historical conditions. Adjusted for inflation, the break-even price of $35 per barrel of petroleum that shale needs to break-even didn't occur until the 1980s, and even then only became nearly constant starting in the late 1990s.

Shale gas could probably have a compelling economic case in many nations, as pipelines and especially liquefied natural gas terminals are expensive and complicated to build.

I'm wondering if the technology could have been adopted earlier, perhaps as a way of increasing production if the energy crises had not occurred. If that were the case, could shale petroleum and gas act as a cap of sorts on energy prices, leading to a permanent situation of inexpensive fossil fuels, at least by modern standards? 1960s/1970s prices were in the $20 per barrel range when adjusted for inflation, but $35 is fairly low relative to the prices that have prevailed since 1973.
 
Have the 1980 oil prices be maintained high for the next 20 years instead of suffering the oil markets with low price for the most of 1980s and 1990s in order for hydraulic fracturing or fracking to become mainstream and competitive with vertical drilling of oil. With the earlier development and acceptance of fracking, I would say that the United States could become an energy independent by 2000 and a top tier oil producing and exporting country that would make OPEC obsolete and bring the Middle East into instability without US and Europe intervention. Argentina might have better economic times in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s instead of mediocre ones in OTL and would have been a major oil and gas exporter like Norway is doing right now. China could become energy independent too and even an exporter given with its shale reserves. Russia might also benefit with it and become competitor of the United States, China, and Argentina in oil and gas shale markets. On the other hand, oil and tar sands might become competitive too like shale, therefore Canada might also become a major hydrocarbon exporter more than in OTL, thus I could say that the entire North America and South America would be the energy capital of the world.
 
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