The natives push the new england colonies into the sea, and reduce the virginia colony to the point where they basically become part of the native power system.
This leaves new amsterdam as the only viable european colony.
Then a massive plague hits Europe, killing 2/3 or more of the population. Thus the tiny dutch nucleus in new amsterdam grows and eventually takes over north america.
The stupendous battle of Vera Cruz in 2131 wher the ironclads of the Dutch navy anhiliated the Spanish (ie mexican) fleet, marked the subjugation of all north america under dutch rule.
Seriously, non ASB? Dont see it. The dutch didnt really make their colony a settler colony, so otl by the time they lost political control, they were, iirc, a minority in their own colony.
I suppose, maybe, if some pod in the 1500s caused the netherlands to set up a settler colony. Maybe they lose the war of independence againt Spain, and the ' true' dutch flee west, gaining an insurmountable lead in population....