In the Treaty of Kalisz of 28 February 1813 Russia and Prussia allied themselves against Napoleon. Prussia was guaranteed the territory of early 1806, without Hanover and the gains in Poland from the 1790s, since the latter would go to Russia.
From that point on, keeping Poland in Prussian hands is practrically impossible.
You will not get a Congress of Vienna unless Russia is fighting against France and her allies. But once Russia fights, they will desire to get Warsaw. There is nothing you can offer the Tsar that is remotely as attractive - not even Ottoman SE Europe.
The only way to get a Prussian D of Warsaw I can see is this: 1809, when Austria starts her war against Napoleon, they manage to drag the King of Saxony with them, due to old Austrian-Saxon ties, while Prussia stays neutral or even fights Saxony. Napoleon crushes this A-S coalition and punishes Saxony by taking the Duchy of Warsaw away, adding Austrian Galicia and giving it all to Prussia, which now has more Catholic Polish than Protestant German subjects.
But to have this last longer than a few years, you will have to keep Napoleon winning ...