AHC / WI: Constantinople falls earlier, from the West

Could a Pontic-Caspian horde, a Slavic migration, or later Bulgaria or Serbia have pulled it off? What would the implications be for post-Byzantine history, and especially Balkan ethnic identities?

Conditions: Constantinople falls to a group who do not consider themselves Greek, whose power base is in the Balkans or Pontic steppe, permanently dismantling (or at least permanently disabling) the East Roman / Byzantine Empire - analogous to OTL 1453.
 
The Imperium Romaniae lasts. It wouldn't be hard, honestly, just have henri d'flandres assume the throne initially instead of baudoin, so the latins don't lose the core of their army in a pointless fight with the voulgars by antagonising them when relations were good enough to where the voulgars would be amenable to an alliance, and in fact had proposed such.
Henri was a very capable general, who smashed the nicaeans on several occasions and might have destroyed them completely if not for a lack of men. Not to mention, he was actually considerably popular with the local greek population, and challenged the catholic church on several occasions with success.
 
The Imperium Romaniae lasts. It wouldn't be hard, honestly, just have henri d'flandres assume the throne initially instead of baudoin, so the latins don't lose the core of their army in a pointless fight with the voulgars by antagonising them when relations were good enough to where the voulgars would be amenable to an alliance, and in fact had proposed such.
Henri was a very capable general, who smashed the nicaeans on several occasions and might have destroyed them completely if not for a lack of men. Not to mention, he was actually considerably popular with the local greek population, and challenged the catholic church on several occasions with success.

I was wondering how best to discount the Latin Empire (although I'd be interested to see stuff on it regardless), since it doesn't quite fit into the Ottoman-like paradigm I'm looking for. The Latin Empire was the setup of other, overseas powers, and although it took on a political identity of its own it was still basically the "Empire of Constantinople"; I'm looking for something like the Ottomans bringing their own political institutions straight-up, maybe making Constantinople their capital but still keeping a strong power base in their homeland.
 
I was wondering how best to discount the Latin Empire (although I'd be interested to see stuff on it regardless), since it doesn't quite fit into the Ottoman-like paradigm I'm looking for. The Latin Empire was the setup of other, overseas powers, and although it took on a political identity of its own it was still basically the "Empire of Constantinople"; I'm looking for something like the Ottomans bringing their own political institutions straight-up, maybe making Constantinople their capital but still keeping a strong power base in their homeland.
Well, the best options for that would be stefan dusan, who historically was gunning for being the vasileos, and of course, a somewhat luckier Simeon the Great.

Both fit the criteria you're asking for, and both certainly could have done it. As for dark horses, perhaps alexios fails to procure cuman support and is crushed at levounion, which the pechenegs follow up on with a siege on constantinople? Though, I doubt their ability to actually take the city.

There's also Krum, the khan of the early voulgar empire, and if you're amenable to western conquerors, perhaps charles d'anjou? He certainly had his own power base in italy and france. All it really takes is a failure or non-start of the sicilian vespers, which allows charles to move forward with his planned move against the empire.
 
The Rus’ sack Constantinople in 860?

I’ve heard that it was considered a miracle that they left. I don’t know how plausible it is but...
 
As mentioned before, a more successful Charles of Anjou is a good candidate. Albeit whether his dynasty would be able to defend Anatolia as well as the Palaiologoi is a tough question.
 
Could a Pontic-Caspian horde, a Slavic migration, or later Bulgaria or Serbia have pulled it off? What would the implications be for post-Byzantine history, and especially Balkan ethnic identities?

Conditions: Constantinople falls to a group who do not consider themselves Greek, whose power base is in the Balkans or Pontic steppe, permanently dismantling (or at least permanently disabling) the East Roman / Byzantine Empire - analogous to OTL 1453.

Stephen Dushan of Serbia conquers Constantinople in the 14th century and proclaims himself Emperor and Tsar of the Serbs and the Greeks.
 
Maybe if the Siege of Constantinople in 626 looks worse, and Heraclius leaves the city for Carthage and then Constantinople falls and is razed or looted, maybe what's left becomes part of a Slavic or Avar state?
 
What about a wanked medieval Hungary? They were more powerful than either Serbia or Bulgaria were. I see Serbia and Bulgaria as both small enough powers that it would be better for their leader to usurp the Byzantine throne rather than import their own institutions, while and Hungary which grows to the size necessary to take on Byzantium would have a strong enough power base back home that it would need to maintain its Hungarian identity for fear of revolts. I could see Constantinople added to Hungary as an additional appendage of the Crown of St Stephen the way tha Croatia was.....
 
What about a wanked medieval Hungary? They were more powerful than either Serbia or Bulgaria were. I see Serbia and Bulgaria as both small enough powers that it would be better for their leader to usurp the Byzantine throne rather than import their own institutions, while and Hungary which grows to the size necessary to take on Byzantium would have a strong enough power base back home that it would need to maintain its Hungarian identity for fear of revolts. I could see Constantinople added to Hungary as an additional appendage of the Crown of St Stephen the way tha Croatia was.....

Just checked the original conditions and realized that the "powerbase is in the Balkans" condition would not be met. Unless you somehow had a Serbian monarch inherit Hungary and then conquer Constaninople. Or Hungary move its capital to Belgrade for some reason?
 
My dream scenario I’d like to write a TL about someday is a “gradual” Bulgarian takeover. During a period of detente between the Bulgarians and Byzantines—so relatively early on, before the Bulgarians got vassalized/conquered—the Tsar marries a Byzantine princess of the current ruling family. One or two generations later, the Byzantines get into one of their civil wars and the current Tsar realizes he’s got a claim to the throne. Taking advantage of Bulgarian citizens in the City he lowers the gates through intrigue and takes it. Following a victorious campaign in Anatolia the guy begins the Bulgarian dynasty of the Roman Empire...
 
Maybe the Huns manage to sack Constantinople? I don’t know about the power base in the balkans, but I know the walls weren’t as strong then as later. Is this too early? Of course, a post-hunnic group (like the goths) could pick up he pieces?
 
Just checked the original conditions and realized that the "powerbase is in the Balkans" condition would not be met. Unless you somehow had a Serbian monarch inherit Hungary and then conquer Constaninople. Or Hungary move its capital to Belgrade for some reason?

I’d say Hungary is in the Balkans. I’m pretty sure the Balkans edge border Austria, Czech republic, Slovakia and Russia. It would seem weird if Romania was included but Hungary was not.
 
Could a Pontic-Caspian horde, a Slavic migration, or later Bulgaria or Serbia have pulled it off?
Combine all of those (Pontic-Caspian horde, Slavic migration, Bulgaria) and add Vikings and Russians, and you get Sviatoslav's invasion of Bulgaria. For a brief moment in 969 and 970 AD, a new warlike empire of Rus' and Bulgars threatened to conquer Constantinople and push the Byzantines into Asia Minor but John Tzimiskes ended up routing both forces and also causing the fall of Sviatoslav and the fragmentation of the Rus'. Without John Tzimiskes who knows, although Sviatoslav conquering Constantinople is probably as unlikely as Napoleon defeating Russia.
 
I’d say Hungary is in the Balkans. I’m pretty sure the Balkans edge border Austria, Czech republic, Slovakia and Russia. It would seem weird if Romania was included but Hungary was not.

I think the standard definiton of "Balkans" is "South of the Danube and Drava rivers". So only a small part of Romania is in the Balkans as was only a small part of Medieval Hungary (and none of present-day Hungary). However, that is the geographic definition rather than thw geopolitical definition. Usually Romania is placed in the geopolitical definition while Hungary is not, (Hungary is instead part of "Central Europe" together with Austria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia). But of course any of these definitions are arbutrary.
 
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