AHC/WI: Communists Pro-Israel, West Pro-Arab

Delta Force

Banned
My understanding is that this was somewhat the case during the early part of the Cold War, only shifting later on. So, what if the alliances in the Middle East were reversed for the later part of the Cold War, with the communists supporting Israel and the West supporting the Arabs?
 
My understanding is that this was somewhat the case during the early part of the Cold War, only shifting later on. So, what if the alliances in the Middle East were reversed for the later part of the Cold War, with the communists supporting Israel and the West supporting the Arabs?

I think it had to do with the various regimes; Israel's was leftist, even socialist. The Arab world was still dominated by Western-clientist monarchies. Post-Nasser, they tilted more towards the Soviets and against the West.
 
Israel was more or less socialist up to the late 1970s when Begin came to power. And up to Suez, it was decently close to the Soviet bloc. Butterfly away the Suez Crisis and Israel would probably end up as a Yugoslavia/India type of country - socialist, lean toward Moscow, and be a strategic asset in the region. It might also be more Russian, as with Israel under the Soviet umbrella (or near enough), the USSR could let more Jews leave the country.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Could good relations have been maintained with both the Arab states and Iran?

How would Israel fare with Soviet support instead of Western support? Would the Soviets be willing to look the other way regarding an Israeli nuclear weapons program?
 
I've actually been thinking about this one for a while, and one thing that I think would increase it's likelihood is if one of the major Arab countries, possibly Iraq or Syria, ends up going Communist. This would provide a Soviet-aligned Israel with a potential ally in the region, whilst serving to drive a wedge between the various Arab states and preventing them from uniting around Israel. This might also lead to a split in Ba'athism, between a left-wing pro-Communist faction that supports reconciliation with Soviet Israel and alignment with the Soviet Union, and a right-wing nationalistic faction that seeks to build ties with the West.

I also wonder how this is going to affect Israeli society and the Palestinians. If Israel gets really Communist and their position in the Middle East is reasonably secure, I can see Israel moving towards post-Zionism or bi-nationalism, what with national self-determination and anti-colonialism being fairly central tenets of Soviet ideology (at least in theory). The potentially quite large influx of Jewish migrants from the Soviet Union and other Warsaw Pact countries would help to placate the concerns of some of the more belligerently Zionist elements.

Yiddish might do better ITTL if there is a large influx of East European Jews who aren't necessarily as ideologically committed to Zionism and its fetishisation of Ivrit and restoring the old language.

Finally, assuming that Israel going Communist isn't enough to tip the Cold War in favour of the Soviet Union, what's going to happen to Israel if/when the Soviet Union falls.
 
Could good relations have been maintained with both the Arab states and Iran?

How would Israel fare with Soviet support instead of Western support? Would the Soviets be willing to look the other way regarding an Israeli nuclear weapons program?

Depends what you mean by good relations. Iranian-Israeli relations are probably going to go on the same track as OTL (maybe the revolution is butterflied away, but maybe not).

Israel would probably get consistent Soviet support in the UN (the US was an ally of Israel, and still passed resolutions critical, while the USSR didn't do that for their allies). I think the Soviets would look the other way, but they also know that Israel wouldn't use nuclear weapons unless there was no other option. Israel would probably develop a nuclear program on its own without Soviet aid or anything.

I've actually been thinking about this one for a while, and one thing that I think would increase it's likelihood is if one of the major Arab countries, possibly Iraq or Syria, ends up going Communist. This would provide a Soviet-aligned Israel with a potential ally in the region, whilst serving to drive a wedge between the various Arab states and preventing them from uniting around Israel. This might also lead to a split in Ba'athism, between a left-wing pro-Communist faction that supports reconciliation with Soviet Israel and alignment with the Soviet Union, and a right-wing nationalistic faction that seeks to build ties with the West.

I also wonder how this is going to affect Israeli society and the Palestinians. If Israel gets really Communist and their position in the Middle East is reasonably secure, I can see Israel moving towards post-Zionism or bi-nationalism, what with national self-determination and anti-colonialism being fairly central tenets of Soviet ideology (at least in theory). The potentially quite large influx of Jewish migrants from the Soviet Union and other Warsaw Pact countries would help to placate the concerns of some of the more belligerently Zionist elements.

Yiddish might do better ITTL if there is a large influx of East European Jews who aren't necessarily as ideologically committed to Zionism and its fetishisation of Ivrit and restoring the old language.

Finally, assuming that Israel going Communist isn't enough to tip the Cold War in favour of the Soviet Union, what's going to happen to Israel if/when the Soviet Union falls.

Well, Iraq nearly fell a communist coup in I think 1959, so that might help you. Having a pro-Soviet or a communist Arab state might help, but I'm not sure. The Arab states were largely pro-American in the 1950s and 60s, and they still went over to the Soviets. The Soviets might make it so that if the Arab states want to get funding, they recognize Israel and make peace. If the Arab states go with the Soviets instead of the US, the Americans will be without allies in the region and they'll be desperate for an ally/asset in the region, and try with Israel.

Israel isn't going to go Communist, post-Zionist or bi-nationalist. They'll get Soviet support, but probably remain socialist (like India or maybe something like Yugoslavia). They didn't in OTL, and there's no reason to think they will in TTL. They'll be under the Soviet umbrella, but keep their distance because there's no support for a Communist Israel in Israel (the Communist parties in Israel never won more than a few seats). Plus, if Israel is under Soviet influence, the Soviets will make Zionism a national liberation movement (plus they get to say they're the "protectors of the Jewish people, who have been so unjustly and brutally persecuted by the bigoted and capitalist lackeys of world imperialism"). With Israel under the Soviet shield, there will be pressure to allow Soviet Jews to come to Israel; and with a very good Israeli defense industry, they might tie Soviet Jewish immigration to Israel with either Israeli defense industry secrets, or with Western military secrets. Hell, the Soviets would maybe push for a naval base in Haifa, to counter the U.S. Sixth Fleet directly, and to get a warm-water port.

Yiddish is all but dead. Soviet Jews spoke Russian, and very few actually spoke Yiddish. Yiddish isn't going to make a revival, it's going to remain a minor language in the USSR, US, and Israel. And Soviet Jews were actually quite Zionist (not all, but a good majority).

When/if the USSR collapses? Israel migrates over to the US (which will no doubt have been trying to woo them over to the West for decades if they lose Arab states to Moscow) like India did. They'll probably get some concessions because the US would be desperate for an asset in the region, like weapons deliveries or unconditional support in the UN.
 
The British and French supported Israel after 1949 because they had common enemies in Arab nationalism. When Israel did not become hard left Socialist friendly to Moscow, Stalin and Khruschev turned to the Arabs. The US tried to be friendly with both Israel (because of the large US Jewish population) and Arabs (because of foreign policy and oil) but wasn't entirely successful.

These are the most natural dynamics. To get this new scenario, the Israelis have to be much more in line with Soviet Communism, and the US would need to support Arab nationalism to the detriment of British and French influence. I am not aware of any Zionist who saw Moscow as a better friend than Washington. And I have a hard time seeing the US willing to challenge Britain and France in the Middle East even more than they did IOTL.

You'd likely need a PO prior to 1945 where Soviet influence in the Zionist movement was much more heavy and Moscow backed the Zionists much more strongly than OTL, perhaps thinking the Arab monarchies would be hopelessly reactionary and discounting any Arab Socialism as a vehicle for Soviet influence. This probably requires a POD in the 1920s when someone else takes over from Lenin. Of course, that far back you end up a with very different scenario because of butterflies.
 
You'd likely need a PO prior to 1945 where Soviet influence in the Zionist movement was much more heavy and Moscow backed the Zionists much more strongly than OTL, perhaps thinking the Arab monarchies would be hopelessly reactionary and discounting any Arab Socialism as a vehicle for Soviet influence. This probably requires a POD in the 1920s when someone else takes over from Lenin. Of course, that far back you end up a with very different scenario because of butterflies.

Anyone but Stalin would result in a USSR superpower. Stalin so fucked up the USSR and so crippled the nation that if Lend Lease and US entry hadn't bailed him out, the USSR would have fallen. It took till the 70s for the USSR to really recover from WW2.
 
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