AHC/WI: Collapse/dissolution of NATO after 1991?

I now that this subject is recent and political enough to be rather touchy for some, so I'll try to keep it non-partial.

NATO is a tricky thing to understand, as it has arguably seen more growth and activity after the end of the Cold War than during it. Its' principle reason to exist, the Soviet Union, simply went away, with no massive nuclear strike, no invasion of Western Europe, just a rather anticlimactic tumble. And, of course, there are many people, back then and now, that conclude "Mission Accomplished. The Reds are gone, Europe is safe from communism, Western Europe is fairly united and chance of war between them is non-existent, we don't need America and Europe locked into this thing anymore". Those same people probably assumed that NATO was going to, in a similarly quiet way, break apart from lack of a clear mission statement. Instead, of course, we've seen expansion in membership since 1991, including much of the former Soviet sphere, leading up to the fairly tense situation with Russia right now.

Suppose that was what indeed did happen. How would it occur? What would the repercussions be? Would alternative alliances come into being?
 
I now that this subject is recent and political enough to be rather touchy for some, so I'll try to keep it non-partial.

NATO is a tricky thing to understand, as it has arguably seen more growth and activity after the end of the Cold War than during it. Its' principle reason to exist, the Soviet Union, simply went away, with no massive nuclear strike, no invasion of Western Europe, just a rather anticlimactic tumble. And, of course, there are many people, back then and now, that conclude "Mission Accomplished. The Reds are gone, Europe is safe from communism, Western Europe is fairly united and chance of war between them is non-existent, we don't need America and Europe locked into this thing anymore". Those same people probably assumed that NATO was going to, in a similarly quiet way, break apart from lack of a clear mission statement. Instead, of course, we've seen expansion in membership since 1991, including much of the former Soviet sphere, leading up to the fairly tense situation with Russia right now.

Suppose that was what indeed did happen. How would it occur? What would the repercussions be? Would alternative alliances come into being?

It wouldn't because of the unstated though occasionally vocalized mission of NATO:

"Keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down"

Even in 1991, there were some fears in Europe about a united Germany, so there are a powerful undercurrent of wanting to keep the existing alliance structure to forestall the possibility (though remote) of a completely independent, possibly aggressive Germany.

IIRC, even the Russians had worries about it.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
I suppose because the instability of the 90s showed that many countries in NATO could not handle defense. The Dutch at Srebenica come to mind. If NATO is the vehicle for continued American subsidized defense, so be it.
 
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