My guess is that he wins a majority, or at the very least a stronger minority than Martin won IOTL.
For starters, Chretien (and his government), despite the interparty tensions with the Martinites, were generally approved of by Canadians - Martin did far worse than he really should've. More importantly, though, Chretien had much better political instincts. Not only is he likely to call the election earlier than Martin did IOTL (probably near the beginning of the year, when the Conservatives were leaderless), but he would've referred the sponsorship scandal to the RCMP instead of holding a public inquiry (and while this might hurt him a bit in the short-term, in the long-term it would kind of silence the scandal instead of having every single detail about it revealed in a public forum, sparing the party of the long-term difficulties it caused IOTL). That, and Chretien was just a much better campaigner overall than Martin ever was.