AHC/WI: Britain won world war 1 without becoming heavily indebted

Thomas1195

Banned
I have some for the UK. I might be able to break it down into the amounts spent on each service.
Besides, actually the war provided Britain to develop new industries like machine tool, optical, chemical or aircraft (their aircraft industry even grew to the top position by 1918), so if these were achieved while Britain still had strong reserves, they would have performed much stronger than OTL. Only the motor car industry was delayed by the war.
 
Besides, actually the war provided Britain to develop new industries like machine tool, optical, chemical or aircraft (their aircraft industry even grew to the top position by 1918), so if these were achieved while Britain still had strong reserves, they would have performed much stronger than OTL. Only the motor car industry was delayed by the war.
Not necessarily because the car companies that spent the war making munitions might have been able to apply the mass production techniques learned to car production after the war ended. Then there was the large number of war surplus lorries that went on sale in 1919. That and the huge numbers of demobbed RASC drivers and mechanics meant the road haulage industry grew faster than would otherwise have been the case. The lorries needed to be replaced when they wore out, which in turn created work for the motor manufacturing industry. IIRC the UK had the second largest motor manufacturing industry in the world by 1939, although it was dwarfed by the US industry which was several times larger than the UK, France, Germany and Italy put together. Also the much smaller UK production was spread over a larger number of firms.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Not necessarily because the car companies that spent the war making munitions might have been able to apply the mass production techniques learned to car production after the war ended. Then there was the large number of war surplus lorries that went on sale in 1919. That and the huge numbers of demobbed RASC drivers and mechanics meant the road haulage industry grew faster than would otherwise have been the case. The lorries needed to be replaced when they wore out, which in turn created work for the motor manufacturing industry. IIRC the UK had the second largest motor manufacturing industry in the world by 1939, although it was dwarfed by the US industry which was several times larger than the UK, France, Germany and Italy put together. Also the much smaller UK production was spread over a larger number of firms.
Yeah, not joining war might have deprived Britain the opportunities to develop new industries
 

Thomas1195

Banned
But it can make an absurd amount of cash selling everything to everyone. Between that, the loss of the crippling debt and the mass casualties, it might prove to be worth it.
Unless the British was intelligent enough to develop those new industries anyway even if they stayed out, then the benefits of staying out would be permanent. Btw, the war without Britain would not be long enough for them to get profit. In addition, there were lots of alternative suppliers so that the charging prices would not be cut throat like in OTL. Finally, a German dominated Europe would be a disaster. So, the best scenario is Britain winning the war with lower casualties and much lower debts.
 
Last edited:

Thomas1195

Banned
I have some for the UK. I might be able to break it down into the amounts spent on each service.
I think the only way to address the issue of this thread is entente winning the war one year earlier.

So, are there any ways to achieve this without any changes in French and Russian performance on the core fronts?
 

BooNZ

Banned
I think the only way to address the issue of this thread is entente winning the war one year earlier.

So, are there any ways to achieve this without any changes in French and Russian performance on the core fronts?

In my opinion, the single most effective POD would be astute British diplomacy securing benevolent Ottoman neutrality during the war. Without the Ottomans in the CP camp, there would be an excellent chance of staring down Bulgaria into maintaining neutrality. This results in no Caucasus Front for the Russians, no Dardenelles, no Middle Eastern Front, no Salonika campaign. With a bit of hand waving the above could also get Greece, Romania and Italy entering in 1915 - preserving the Serbian front and pushing A-H to breaking point. Opening supply lines to Russia probably also starts to pay dividends from 1916.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
In my opinion, the single most effective POD would be astute British diplomacy securing benevolent Ottoman neutrality during the war. Without the Ottomans in the CP camp, there would be an excellent chance of staring down Bulgaria into maintaining neutrality. This results in no Caucasus Front for the Russians, no Dardenelles, no Middle Eastern Front, no Salonika campaign. With a bit of hand waving the above could also get Greece, Romania and Italy entering in 1915 - preserving the Serbian front and pushing A-H to breaking point. Opening supply lines to Russia probably also starts to pay dividends from 1916.
One problem is that you have to reward Greece if you want to get them on Entente side (OTL, Ottoman provinces in Balkan were used). In addition, giving 2 battleships to Ottoman could destabilize the RN numerical advantage in BBs in North Sea, thus Britain would have to build additional BBs (maybe the QE class Agincourt). The worst scenario is that Ottoman still joins CP despite getting 2 BBs.
 
I think the only way to address the issue of this thread is entente winning the war one year earlier.

So, are there any ways to achieve this without any changes in French and Russian performance on the core fronts?

Well, either successful Gallipoli, alternate invasion at Alexandretta, or Ottomans staying out.
If British succeed in intercepting Souchon before he reaches Anatolia, it might prevent Ottomans from joining Central Powers.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Well, either successful Gallipoli, alternate invasion at Alexandretta, or Ottomans staying out.
If British succeed in intercepting Souchon before he reaches Anatolia, it might prevent Ottomans from joining Central Powers.
Capturing souchon is difficult because in OTL the best opportunity to get him was before british declaration of war.

In a war with Ottoman, I would choose Alexandretta over Gallipoli
 
These are comments on the Turkish Dreadnoughts Were Delivered thread, which I think sum up what's currently being discussed on this thread.
I'll answer the second paragraph first, yes, but that's out of the scope of the OP.

As to the first part I really want to examine how the war would have turned out had the Turks still joined the Central Powers.

However, if their delivery did mean the Ottoman Empire remained neutral in World War One that changes the course of that conflict considerably and it probably changes the history of Turkey and the Middle East beyond recognition. It's possible that there would still be an Ottoman Empire with its 1914 borders. Thus, no State of Israel, no Arab-Israeli conflict, no Saddam Hussein in Iraq and no civil war in Syria, but for all we know the alternative might have been a decades long guerrilla war fought by the Arabs for independence from the Turks that was even bloodier than the OTL history of the Middle East since 1918.

In World War One for the British Empire:
  • No attempts to force the Dardanelles and Gallipoli Campaign;
  • No Mesopotamia Campaign including the Siege of Kut;
  • No Levant Campaign including no Lawrence of Arabia.
For the Entente more generally:
  • No Caucasus Front for the Russians;
  • Bulgaria probably doesn't join the Central Powers;
  • Serbia probably holds out;
  • No Salonika Front.
Did I miss anything out?
You can still send merchant ships to and from the Halifax to Sevastopol.... Russia can buy weapons and sell grain so doesn't fall?
 

BooNZ

Banned
What would happen if the Ottoman get the BBs but still join CP.
That's why I think Ottoman friendly British diplomacy is a safer POD - if the BBs get delivered, they are in safe (friendly) hands. As an aside, how were those BBs intended to be crewed initially and going forward under the Ottomans?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
That's why I think Ottoman friendly British diplomacy is a safer POD - if the BBs get delivered, they are in safe (friendly) hands. As an aside, how were those BBs intended to be crewed initially and going forward under the Ottomans?
But what could you reward Greece to get them into Entente instead of Ottoman land? Besides, you would want to get some oil rich territories.
 
What would happen if the Ottoman get the BBs but still join CP.
I think the Ottomans would still join the Central Powers because the delivery of the dreadnoughts before the end of June 1914 does not stop the Germans selling the Goeben and Breslau to Turkey and it doesn't prevent the failure of the British Mediterranean Fleet to stop them. Therefore Admiral Souchon in collusion with the pro-German faction in the Ottoman Government still takes the fleet out into the Black Sea for exercises and instead bombards Sevastopol.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
What would happen if no schlieffen plan PLUS ottoman neutral or Ottoman fell in 1916? Although the French might suffered a lot in Alsace Lorraine but still much less than OTL (they actually won in Alsace under the command of Paul Pau before Joffre ordered them to retreat), the German USW would be less effective without bases in Belgium.
 

BooNZ

Banned
But what could you reward Greece to get them into Entente instead of Ottoman land? Besides, you would want to get some oil rich territories.
The Greeks were already closely aligned to the Serbs, so solidarity might prevail without the threat of Bulgarian belligerence - perhaps with more than a hint of British coercion. British interests already had the inside running on Ottoman oil assets, so maybe they edge out the US.
 

BooNZ

Banned
What would happen if no schlieffen plan PLUS ottoman neutral or Ottoman fell in 1916? Although the French might suffered a lot in Alsace Lorraine but still much less than OTL (they actually won in Alsace under the command of Paul Pau before Joffre ordered them to retreat), the German USW would be less effective without bases in Belgium.

On balance a CP victory, due to extraordinarily heavy Russian losses in 1914 and 1915, which would embolden A-H and drag Bulgaria into the fray. To relieve the Russians the French would be compelled to attack strong German defensive positions before they had developed decent doctrine or introduced sufficient heavy artillery. Italy would almost certainly stay neutral in those circumstances. If the Ottomans were part of the CP it would be difficult to see them falling in 1916, so I assume they must be neutral.

The Alsace victory you cite is a minor French victory amongst widespread French losses the width of the front - scarcely representative of a likely overall outcome of French offensives. Naval implications are small beer next to the thrashing the Entente would be receiving on the continent.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
The Greeks were already closely aligned to the Serbs, so solidarity might prevail without the threat of Bulgarian belligerence - perhaps with more than a hint of British coercion. British interests already had the inside running on Ottoman oil assets, so maybe they edge out the US.
Maybe: well, take them into account after this war ends, but during the war treat them decently.
What about Italy, do you think being friendly to the Turks might piss them off?

And the Greece still wanted to get back their historical lands at that time. This did lead to the Greco Turkish war in OTL.
 
Last edited:

Thomas1195

Banned
That's why I think Ottoman friendly British diplomacy is a safer POD - if the BBs get delivered, they are in safe (friendly) hands. As an aside, how were those BBs intended to be crewed initially and going forward under the Ottomans?
But I expect the chance of Ottoman neutrality to be 20% at most. In case Ottoman entry could not be avoided, I think a landing on Alexandretta, plus some diplomatic action to address conflicts between Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia to get all of them to the Entente (although very hard, but if achieved then taking Gallipoli and Constantinople would only be a matter of weeks; and in OTL they nearly succeeded).
 
Top