AHC/WI: Brazilian Monarchy Survives to the Modern Day

[Devoid]

In 1889, after a long and largely successful reign, Emperor Pedro II of Brazil was deposed in a sudden coup, establishing a republic. He went off to Europe, where he died in 1891.

The question here is what would happen if the coup failed? Eyewitness accounts of the coup often failed to realize is was a rebellion, which is to say the coup should not have succeeded, but did because Pedro II, after 58 years of being emperor, was tired of ruling and did not believe the succession to be remotely secure, as the only of his children to outlive him was his daughter Isabel, who was as unenthusiastic as her father about ruling (not to mention that Pedro did not believe women could realistically be involved in government, even though his daughter had served as regent multiple times before when he had been out of the country).

In short, Pedro could have easily crushed the coup, but chose not to. Brazil was in a fantastic shape during his later rule and he was very popular, as was his daughter (who in her last regency had signed the Lei Áurea, which abolished slavery), but after the coup, Brazil became unstable and lost most of its international prestige.

So, in an alternate universe the coup fails. Why does it fail? How does Brazil look afterward? Does Brazil stay/become a major player on the world stage? Can the monarchy stay at least as figureheads? Can Brazil democratize and become a constitutional monarchy, or is the monarchy doomed to stay in power? Brazil, from what I've read, was a fairly democratic monarchy (elected legislators), and Princess Isabel's education made her fairly pro-democracy, so a Brazil under an Empress Isabel might be liable to become more democratic, I'd think. However, there is doubt as to whether Isabel might inherit the throne. She's the obvious candidate, as her title was Princess Imperial, the title of the heir/heiress to the Brazilian throne, but given Pedro's aforementioned misgivings about women in power, someone else might take charge, like her son Pedro. Also, would Pedro II survive for longer as emperor, or does he still on December 5, 1891, or does he die earlier from the strain of being the emperor?

Opinions on the topic?

 

[AltoRegnant]

First ill resolve the succession by having Alfonso survive, as frankly killing a two year old in alternate history Is no fun. Since he died as a child we can't really know, but his family was progressive and abolitionist we can assume both of those, and that he would view rulership as his cross to bear, and might resign himself to absolutism (which is the only reason I can think of for a progressive monarch like pedro to not implement a strong constitution).

Now for the coup. It wasnt exactly a bunch of liberals who wanted representation. It was the Brazilian equivalent of Confederate elite who were angered by the ending of slavery. If that coup fails, Brazilian governing tradition wouldn't come from military juntas and slavocratic republics, but 19th century progressive monarchs. Which is better: a liberal and executively powerful monarchy or a deeply conservative republic I'll leave to you

Regardless, assuming that the coup fails or Alfonso is restored to the throne, monarchists will point out the coup's anti-abolitionist stance to justify the monarchy.

A stable Brazil would be a quickly industrializing power by this time, and with that comes a need for resources. I'm not saying Brazilian Kongo, but I am saying Brazilian Africa and probably something in asia. Who knows, maybe they grab the pink map instead of Portugal taking those colonies and theres a Brazilian belt from the amazon delta to Madagascar

 

[Ricard (i.e. Rdffigueira)]

I've been lately sketching a short TL based on the premise that Afonso and Pedro the younger survive to adulthood. This, IMHO would ensure the survival of the monarchy for some time more.

It wouldnt be an easy walk, considering the abolition would undermine the imperial regime, one way or another, and the revolutions of the 20th century, notably bolshevism, would arise in Brazil, albeit under different circumstances.

I can see it surviving through the 20th century, but under specific conditions, and likely the imperial institution will become increasingly powerless, but I can imagine it would at least preserve some institutional influence, more like the King of the Netherlands than, say, the Japanese Emperor.

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

I doubt the monarchy would survive to this day. Eventually colonialism is going to come under criticism as the main cause for Brazilian underdevelopment and that’s when the monarchy will fall. The Brazilian monarchy was not interested in promoting industrialization. It can only survive by incorporating the São Paulo coffee elite into their governance structure. All the factors which led to the 1930 Revolution are still there. The only difference is the role of the army, which admittedly is a big difference that may lead to a more prosperous and democratic Brazil.

1889 also didn’t come out of the blue, the army was mutinous and the political class deeply desired reform (most of all federalism and a restriction to the monarch’s powers). If the monarchy can reform then it may survive for another few decades until being toppled by the modernists and developmentists, who would have such a radically different vision of Brazil that I doubt they could be reconciled with Braganza monarchism.