AHC/WI: Brazilian Civil War in '64

This is not my particular area of expertise, so please bear with me and correct me if I'm wrong or deficent in

In 1964, as many members are aware, a right-wing military coup, aided by the US government, toppled the government of left-wing President Joao Goulart in Brazil, sending the country into thirty years of military dictatorship.

How could this have spiraled into a civil war? IOTL, both sides seemed to think that a civil war was a likely outcome. The US, for example, made arrangements to ship 110 tons of ammunition to anti-Goulart forces, as well as deploy a carrier battle group off the Brazilian coast. It is also worth noting that the loyalties of the Brazilian military as a whole during the coup were a matter of much intrigue; Goulart was seen as trying to cultivate support among NCOs against the conservative officer corps in the leadup to the coup, and a number of generals did not sign on to the coup until relatively late in the game.

If the situation had devolved into a full-on civil war, what would be the likely outcome? How do other regional powers respond? Would the US intervene militarily, and if so might that butterfly major deployments in Vietnam post-1964 as IOTL? What of Cuba? Might Che Guevera attempt to aid leftist forces in Brazil?
 
I am not sure that Che Guevara would have tried to intervene in Brazil. Goulart was more centre-left than hard left, and I am not sure that Cuba would have wanted to ally with him unless he became seriously anti-United States.

Moreover, I do not see that apart from the Christian Democratic regime of Eduardo Frei Montalva – who only came to power in Chile in November 1964 – there would have been anyone outside Brazil to support the Goulart regime if a Civil War did break out.
 
This is not my particular area of expertise, so please bear with me and correct me if I'm wrong or deficent in

In 1964, as many members are aware, a right-wing military coup, aided by the US government, toppled the government of left-wing President Joao Goulart in Brazil, sending the country into thirty years of military dictatorship.

How could this have spiraled into a civil war? IOTL, both sides seemed to think that a civil war was a likely outcome. The US, for example, made arrangements to ship 110 tons of ammunition to anti-Goulart forces, as well as deploy a carrier battle group off the Brazilian coast. It is also worth noting that the loyalties of the Brazilian military as a whole during the coup were a matter of much intrigue; Goulart was seen as trying to cultivate support among NCOs against the conservative officer corps in the leadup to the coup, and a number of generals did not sign on to the coup until relatively late in the game.

If the situation had devolved into a full-on civil war, what would be the likely outcome? How do other regional powers respond? Would the US intervene militarily, and if so might that butterfly major deployments in Vietnam post-1964 as IOTL? What of Cuba? Might Che Guevera attempt to aid leftist forces in Brazil?


Thankfully this is my area, but sadly I'm a bit biased, so I'm going to get as neutral as possible, I hope we can make a point:

First, the coup was a glass cannon, it had to pass at first or it would not work, because they had virtually no support. Goulart had a 70% approval, to have a idea, that is more than Getúlio Vargas had, and the main reason that made the coup works was exactly the US intervention, as the american fleet was stationed in Rio, Jango had a reunion with his military cabinet and they came to the conclusion that since it is the US we are talking about, the country that firebombed cities indiscriminately, it was the best for the brazilian people to not resist since Rio could be utterly destroyed in case of american intervention. There is a historian... I already quoted him here before, but I cannot remember his name now, but he said "If the army that reduced Germany and Japan to ashes was coming against Brazil, what could Goulart do?"

At the same time, let's say that Goulart decides to fight the coup. The short answer is that the coup is crushed, like on @AdrianoChika TL about 1964, the coup had no support between the working class, no support between the masses, who wanted the coup was the Pro USA party UDN and members of the brazilian army who had been educated in the USA, to the point that more military personell were purged by the putschists after the coup than civilian ones. But if the USA makes it's move, well...

During the rest of 1963, the Kennedy administration searched for a plausible group within the armed forces capable and willing to overthrow Goulart. On 7 October 1963, a meeting to explore US options took place in the White House. Kennedy's advisors still lacked conviction at this point that a coup attempt could be successful. At one point Kennedy asked, ‘Do you see a situation coming where we might be – find it desirable to intervene militarily ourselves?’ Ambassador Gordon said that he was working on a plan involving people in Rio, Washington and Panama, where SOUTHCOM (Southern Command of the US Army), commanded by General Andrew O'Meara at the time, was based. (This plan has still not been declassified. Contrary to Fico (2014: 74), I see this plan as having been entirely separate from Operation Brother Sam, the naval task force sent in support of the coup in early April 1964.) Gordon said that a US invasion would require six divisions, many ships and a ‘massive military operation’. He then declared that ‘it all depends on what the Brazilian military do’ but he feared that a coup attempt could lead to an ‘internal clash’ and ‘the beginnings of what would amount to a civil war’. (From White House, Excerpts from John F. Kennedy's conversation regarding Brazil with US Ambassador to Brazil Lincoln Gordon on Monday, 7 October 1963, Tape 114/A50, President's Office Files, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library, Boston, pp. 7–8)

Basically a south american Vietnam, the USA bomb the hell over Rio, deploy their troops and begin to prot up a extremely unpopular dictatorship. The whole countryside and most of the States side with Goulart, this would result on a de facto US invasion of Brazil to install a puppet regime, and how this would work? The USA can eventually win, but it would take time, and it would hurt on Vietnam.
 

manav95

Banned
The US gets bogged down in the Amazon rainforest and Vietnam jungles, leading to a stronger counterculture and massive domestic turmoil. Some guy who is a hardass on law and order like George Wallace or Ronald Reagan gets elected as part of the Silent Majority backlash. Both wars escalate, exacerbating deficit spending and inflation. On the bright side, the defense industry booms and unemployment is lower in 1970 and 1971. Cold comfort for an even worse domestic scene and riots everywhere in the cities, with conservative backlash stoking left wing terrorism.

In 1972, McGovern wins as people are fed up with the wars and the US promptly pulls out. For the rest of the 1970s, there is a period of detente and isolationism as the US focuses on it's own internal problems. The Soviets gain Afghanistan earlier and perhaps some other African countries under the Communist banner. After 1980 though, it's unclear what happens.
 
The US gets bogged down in the Amazon rainforest and Vietnam jungles, leading to a stronger counterculture and massive domestic turmoil. Some guy who is a hardass on law and order like George Wallace or Ronald Reagan gets elected as part of the Silent Majority backlash. Both wars escalate, exacerbating deficit spending and inflation. On the bright side, the defense industry booms and unemployment is lower in 1970 and 1971. Cold comfort for an even worse domestic scene and riots everywhere in the cities, with conservative backlash stoking left wing terrorism.

In 1972, McGovern wins as people are fed up with the wars and the US promptly pulls out. For the rest of the 1970s, there is a period of detente and isolationism as the US focuses on it's own internal problems. The Soviets gain Afghanistan earlier and perhaps some other African countries under the Communist banner. After 1980 though, it's unclear what happens.

90% of the brazilian GDP and population is on the coast, they just need to keep a occupation force on the coastal regions supporting the collaborationist government and leave the amazon rainforest alone.
 
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