AHC/WI: Borghese Coup succeeds?

[Canuck Wingnut]

So I just heard about this for the first time, and it seems like an interesting potential POD.

To sum up the OTL events, a prominent ex-Italian Navy officer from the fascist period (Decima Flottiglia MAS) attempted to organize a coup in 1970, rallying supporters with a claim to have CIA backing. Shortly before the coup was supposed to take place, and after the first supporters had arrived in Rome and started meeting, he received a phone call, announced to his supporters that it was all over, and fled to Spain.

My questions:
1. How likely was it that this would have turned into an actual coup attempt, rather than just plans?
2. How likely was it that this coup could succeed in overthrowing the Italian government?
3. How would NATO have reacted to a coup d'état in a member state in 1970?
4. How would the Italian communists and the Soviet Union have reacted to a right-wing coup d'état in Italy in 1970?
and 5. As per the thread title, what would it take for a coup to place Borghese in power in Italy, and what would happen if it did?

 

[Enigmajones]

Do we know why he gave up? That could help find the POD.

 

[Falecius]

NATO would be mostly fine at first at least. The Communist party would not. They would be banned quickly, and go underground. The Soviet Union won't do anything overt for obvious reasons, except denouncing the coup. Many, many people would oppose the new regime. Thought the historical Years of Lead were nasty? This scenario would likely devolve into insurgency, possibly low level Civil War. At which point, NATO softly speaks at Borghese's ear that he's not going to get unconditional support.

 

[Falecius]

Do we know why he gave up? That could help find the POD.

Apparently, he realised that Democracy was ready to fight back. He had little support even in the military and the US weren't exactly out to save his sorry Fascist ass.
If the plan went smoothly, the West would have certainly accepted the fait accompli, but recall that the Italian Far Right of the time, however well-connected, militant and obstreperous, was a small and largely despised minority.

 

[Aequanimitas]

So I just heard about this for the first time, and it seems like an interesting potential POD.

To sum up the OTL events, a prominent ex-Italian Navy officer from the fascist period (Decima Flottiglia MAS) attempted to organize a coup in 1970, rallying supporters with a claim to have CIA backing. Shortly before the coup was supposed to take place, and after the first supporters had arrived in Rome and started meeting, he received a phone call, announced to his supporters that it was all over, and fled to Spain.

My questions:
1. How likely was it that this would have turned into an actual coup attempt, rather than just plans?
2. How likely was it that this coup could succeed in overthrowing the Italian government?
3. How would NATO have reacted to a coup d'état in a member state in 1970?
4. How would the Italian communists and the Soviet Union have reacted to a right-wing coup d'état in Italy in 1970?
and 5. As per the thread title, what would it take for a coup to place Borghese in power in Italy, and what would happen if it did?

To answer your questions:
1) Your timeline is a bit muddled, the coup almost happened, when Borghese received that phone call there were already military units moving, so you just need it to not happen to have the coup. It's speculated that Borghese received news that there was not enough political cover for him and that Esigenza Triangolo was activated, Esigenza Triangolo was the name of a special plan to counter a military insurrection , there was a copy of it in every military barrack. So Borghese rather that going forward with the coup and risking a potential civil war that would have annihilated the future of the right wing in Italy suspended everything and fled to Spain.

2) It depends, many speculate that Andreotti, the grand boogeyman of Italian politics was behind that phone call, he was Minister of Defense back then, without his assent, and by proxy the Christian Democracy party which was under his thumb then the coup was dead on arrival which was what happened in OTL. But if Andreotti gave his assent well i think there was a fairly high chance for the coup to succeed. Keep in mind that since the beginning of the 60s there was a lot of saber rattling, look up Piano Solo, this means that the military put a lot of preparation into the possibility of doing a coup to prevent the communist from gaining power, the Borghese Coup was a serious coup that didn't have the decisive support in the most important moment.

3) I don't think Nato would have protested much about a coup d'etat happening. I mean back then Greece and Turkey were under a military rightwing government, and Spain and Portugal too. In fact there were important dissidents to the Greek regime in Italy, so having a friendly regime in Italy would have helped Greece in this regard. Anyway Nato would react only if the situation in Italy evolved into a civil war, and without it happening the Borghese regime would quietly disappear in the 80s like the other mediterranean military governments.

4) Italian communists would have reacted badly, and there a fair chance that the Years of Lead would have been much more worse, but considering Borghese viscerally hated communists and called for their extermination, i think they would end up in a much worse situation compared to OTL. The Soviet Union would have protested and increasing the funding for the communists, but other than that they won't have many options, Italy isn't in their sphere of influence and their power projection there is pretty limited.

5) You need a change of perspective strategy to have Borghese in power, even if Borghese never came to power in OTL the communist never came to power because of the Years of Lead which tarnished their popularity, so in a sense you could say the CIA strategy adopted in Italy to prevent the communists from taking the power worked, but perhaps if the communists were more successful in Italy then the Borghese Coup would have been allowed as an emergency card by giving it the political cover it needed as many would have been scared by the communists.

 

[tukaram bhakt]

Do we know why he gave up? That could help find the POD.

His GLADIO handlers at nato headquarters had a talk with the mainstream democratic leaders and were assured such drastic measures weren't needed.

 

[Falecius]

To answer your questions:
1) Your timeline is a bit muddled, the coup almost happened, when Borghese received that phone call there were already military units moving, so you just need it to not happen to have the coup. It's speculated that Borghese received news that there was not enough political cover for him and that Esigenza Triangolo was activated, Esigenza Triangolo was the name of a special plan to counter a military insurrection , there was a copy of it in every military barrack. So Borghese rather that going forward with the coup and risking a potential civil war that would have annihilated the future of the right wing in Italy suspended everything and fled to Spain.

2) It depends, many speculate that Andreotti, the grand boogeyman of Italian politics was behind that phone call, he was Minister of Defense back then, without his assent, and by proxy the Christian Democracy party which was under his thumb then the coup was dead on arrival which was what happened in OTL. But if Andreotti gave his assent well i think there was a fairly high chance for the coup to succeed. Keep in mind that since the beginning of the 60s there was a lot of saber rattling, look up Piano Solo, this means that the military put a lot of preparation into the possibility of doing a coup to prevent the communist from gaining power, the Borghese Coup was a serious coup that didn't have the decisive support in the most important moment.

3) I don't think Nato would have protested much about a coup d'etat happening. I mean back then Greece and Turkey were under a military rightwing government, and Spain and Portugal too. In fact there were important dissidents to the Greek regime in Italy, so having a friendly regime in Italy would have helped Greece in this regard. Anyway Nato would react only if the situation in Italy evolved into a civil war, and without it happening the Borghese regime would quietly disappear in the 80s like the other mediterranean military governments.

4) Italian communists would have reacted badly, and there a fair chance that the Years of Lead would have been much more worse, but considering Borghese viscerally hated communists and called for their extermination, i think they would end up in a much worse situation compared to OTL. The Soviet Union would have protested and increasing the funding for the communists, but other than that they won't have many options, Italy isn't in their sphere of influence and their power projection there is pretty limited.

5) You need a change of perspective strategy to have Borghese in power, even if Borghese never came to power in OTL the communist never came to power because of the Years of Lead which tarnished their popularity, so in a sense you could say the CIA strategy adopted in Italy to prevent the communists from taking the power worked, but perhaps if the communists were more successful in Italy then the Borghese Coup would have been allowed as an emergency card by giving it the political cover it needed as many would have been scared by the communists.

I disagree that the Communists were much tarnished by the Years of Lead. The mid seventies were the best time for the PCI electorally, and they very clearly opposed to the far-left insurgency afterwards.
However, I think that it is important to stress that the far-left (which in context, means being to the left of the Communist Party) was probably quite stronger than the far right in numbers and general support.

 

[Aequanimitas]

I disagree that the Communists were much tarnished by the Years of Lead. The mid seventies were the best time for the PCI electorally, and they very clearly opposed to the far-left insurgency afterwards.
However, I think that it is important to stress that the far-left (which in context, means being to the left of the Communist Party) was probably quite stronger than the far right in numbers and general support.

Perhaps tarnished wasn't the best word, but you have to recognize that even though they had big successes electorally they never got to the government, the closest they accomplished was the Historical Compromise, and even then they weren't in the government.
Anyway what i was trying to convey with my original post is that, in a better world without the misdirections and obfuscations of the Years of Leads perhaps the Communists would have been able to win, when in OTL they were forced to constantly defend themselves from the accusations of not doing enough to distance themselves from the Red Brigades.

 

[Plundenoru]

But if Andreotti gave his assent well i think there was a fairly high chance for the coup to succeed

What reasons does he or the Christian Democracy have to do so? Seems like a gamble that could end up alienating some voters, and unnecessary as they have been winning every election at that point.

 

[Falecius]

Perhaps tarnished wasn't the best word, but you have to recognize that even though they had big successes electorally they never got to the government, the closest they accomplished was the Historical Compromise, and even then they weren't in the government.
Anyway what i was trying to convey with my original post is that, in a better world without the misdirections and obfuscations of the Years of Leads perhaps the Communists would have been able to win, when in OTL they were forced to constantly defend themselves from the accusations of not doing enough to distance themselves from the Red Brigades.

I am of the opinion that the PCI was never going to be allowed to win any election in Italy during the Cold War period, regardless of the Red Brigades and their stance about them (which was very firmly hostile). In the possible, though unlikely, even of a fair and square Communist electoral victory, a coup would have taken place, successfully, with full NATO backing. But this is a tangent to the topic, so I'll stop here.

 

[Falecius]

What reasons does he or the Christian Democracy have to do so? Seems like a gamble that could end up alienating some voters, and unnecessary as they have been winning every election at that point.

Which is probably why they did not give the go-ahead?
However, the point is that Christian Democracy was not a united front. Since the main opposition party was never supposed to govern, the actual main political competition was within the Christian Democracy itself. Andreotti opposed the centre-left course taken by his party, as one of the leaders of the right-wing faction of it. Cold War era Italian politics used to be weird by the standards of the other NATO countries.