ahc wi Belgium allows German forces to pass through 1914

Could Germany have bribed (probably with offers of colonies) Belgium to let her forces through?

Was there anyone in Belguium who had the authority to allow this?


If so does this mean that France falls quickly?

Does this also mean that Britain does not go to war?
 
IIRC, by the letter of treaty, Britain was supposed to protect Belgian neutrality irrespectively of Belgian wishes. So she still has cassus belli.
 
Not having to fight Belgians gives Germany a pretty serious edge which means Germany wins the race to sea. France is most likely forced to sign peace in late 1914 or early 1915.
 
Way back when I gamed this campaign regularly we tried this scenario a couple times. It helped the Germans, but in those games it did not result in a remotely decisive edge. To get a decisive win vs the French the Germans have to somehow double the reach of their logistics support. Taking control of the Belgian railways a few days or a week early did not extend the supply delivery fast or far enough. The other factor is it leads the French to realize the threat to their flank earlier. OTL there was a assumption the Germans could not swiftly pass the Liege/Namur are fast enough to be a immediate threat. That delayed the French response by a fe critical days. IIRC French plans for the event outlined in the OP led to immediate realignment of the 4th Army & redeployment of the 5th Army & other strategic reserves. Marching the 4th Army into the Ardennes several days early offsets much of the early German advantage. It also meant the British would start seizing coastal ports imeadiatly vs expecting the Belgians to defend them.
 
But this TL would have no Nurse raping, baby eating Hun Propaganda coming from their actions in Belgium. That's worth a lot.
 
Could Germany have bribed (probably with offers of colonies) Belgium to let her forces through?

No. Germany offered to look with favor on any territorial demands Belgium might have King Albert responded with "what kind of fool does he think I am" If the German Army enters Belgium it will never leave. The Belgians knew this and that is why they fight

Was there anyone in Belguium who had the authority to allow this?

Technically, the King could do this. He commanded the Army and could have ordered them to stand down. Not a chance he would actually do this

If so does this mean that France falls quickly?

The French would be in a world of hurt. Not only do the Germans not have to fight Belgium, the roads are cleared and they can use the railroads to save about a weeks march

Does this also mean that Britain does not go to war?

Not a chance in hell. Britain fought to preserve its Empire Belgium joining the Germans won't change that one bit

IIRC, by the letter of treaty, Britain was supposed to protect Belgian neutrality irrespectively of Belgian wishes. So she still has cassus belli.

The five powers (Prussia, Russia, Austria, France and Britain) pledged to respect Belgium neutrality. The parties gave themselves the right but not the obligation to defend Belgium

Belgium was obligated by the treaty to protect its neutrality
 
Way back when I gamed this campaign regularly we tried this scenario a couple times. It helped the Germans, but in those games it did not result in a remotely decisive edge. To get a decisive win vs the French the Germans have to somehow double the reach of their logistics support. Taking control of the Belgian railways a few days or a week early did not extend the supply delivery fast or far enough. The other factor is it leads the French to realize the threat to their flank earlier. OTL there was a assumption the Germans could not swiftly pass the Liege/Namur are fast enough to be a immediate threat. That delayed the French response by a fe critical days. IIRC French plans for the event outlined in the OP led to immediate realignment of the 4th Army & redeployment of the 5th Army & other strategic reserves. Marching the 4th Army into the Ardennes several days early offsets much of the early German advantage. It also meant the British would start seizing coastal ports imeadiatly vs expecting the Belgians to defend them.

Did the parameters of the game allow for German troop trains to go directly into Belgium?

The big problem for the Germans was the unavoidable bleeding of strength by the end of the long march because men were strung out along the route and absolutely knackered after 6 weeks and several hundred miles. But if a Corps could be dropped off in Brussels then the troops would have 100 less miles to march and be days or even a week ahead of schedule. On the principle that the deeper the strike the greater the long term benefit, a division at Ypres would be a game changer.
 
Did the parameters of the game allow for German troop trains to go directly into Belgium?

The big problem for the Germans was the unavoidable bleeding of strength by the end of the long march because men were strung out along the route and absolutely knackered after 6 weeks and several hundred miles. But if a Corps could be dropped off in Brussels then the troops would have 100 less miles to march and be days or even a week ahead of schedule. On the principle that the deeper the strike the greater the long term benefit, a division at Ypres would be a game changer.


And would the French change their strategy in time?

They were set on an offensive into Lorraine, and would be delighted at a German swing to the right, since the further west their line extended, the thinner they would (supposedly) be in Lorraine, and the easier for the French Army to break through there. By the time they realised that it wasn't going to be that way, it could well be too late.
 

trajen777

Banned
Advantage to the Germans. First you have the units that had to cover Amsterdam now able to advance. Secondly you have undamaged road and railroads, to help logistics. Thirdly you could advance on a wider front creating more logistic opportunities.

At the very very least you win the race to sea and most likely give the Germans a hi probability of winning in 15 / 16. It would prob force GB to focus on France and not have excess forces to try and force the straights vs OE. This might keep Italy out of the war.
 
And would the French change their strategy in time?

They were set on an offensive into Lorraine, and would be delighted at a German swing to the right, since the further west their line extended, the thinner they would (supposedly) be in Lorraine, and the easier for the French Army to break through there. By the time they realised that it wasn't going to be that way, it could well be too late.

I doubt it since we're talking days here and the big 2 surprises to the French were the depth of the wheel into Belgium and the deployment of Reserve divisions in this offensive. I assume Belgium's permission would occur on Aug 3 instead of OTL's denial and the Germans would advance pretty much in line with what France thought for a few days at least, allowing both French and German mobilisation to occur as per OTL and the Battle of Mulhouse also to occur as per OTL. I think the French would conclude that the Germans might go a bit deeper and faster than pre-war expectations as a result of the Belgian decision.

The OTL Plan 17's offensive into Lorraine would at least begin on the 14th as per OTL, but I think by then the French would begin to sense the depth and size of the penetration, but as per their OTL pre-war strategy would push on in order to cut in under the German wheel. By this time I think some Germans would be travelling into Belgium itself by train.

If by the time of OTL French Ardennes offensive on 21 Aug I think it would be well known that the Germans were deep in Belgium and this offensive would be changed to something resembling OTL Battle of Charleroi that occurred at the same time. By this time the French are screwed as the Germans have had over 2 weeks of unhindered road movement and maybe 2 weeks of unhindered rail movement, and if the ad-hoc rail movement surrounding the Battle of Tannenburg are any indication Germans Corps and Divisions will be deep into Belgium before the French even realise there's a problem.

IOTL once the French realised there was a problem they shifted west in about 2 weeks, so I think basically the Germans easily win the Race to the Sea, probably capture Paris but as per OTL will struggle to encircle and destroy an Army Tannenburg style.
 
Did the parameters of the game allow for German troop trains to go directly into Belgium?
...

Yes.

Tho the penalty is painful loss of capacity elsewhere. That can have unwanted knock on affects. There was also a unanswered question about the Belgian railways managing such a thing & how far this would have gone crossways with the Belgian mobilization. After all that I read critiques of the game as being to generous for German railway transport.
 
Yes.

Tho the penalty is painful loss of capacity elsewhere. That can have unwanted knock on affects. There was also a unanswered question about the Belgian railways managing such a thing & how far this would have gone crossways with the Belgian mobilization. After all that I read critiques of the game as being to generous for German railway transport.

OK, it all about the parameters. How hard were the trains pushed into Belgium in the game:
  • Was the attempt to transport a whole army to Ypres, or was it a division or 3 to Brussels?
  • Was it done at the very start, or was a bit (a few days or a week) of planning time allowed?
  • What other parameters were there?
 
Even with the violation of Belgian neutrality the British entry in to the war was a close run thing (see Niall Ferguson The Pity of War). If Belgium allows the passage of German troops the most public reason for Britain to enter the war is gone. Even if they do decide to enter, getting the BEF across the Channel probably starts a few days later, and when they arrive they will be in France not Belgium. With the Belgian RRs intact for transport, much less wear and tear on German shoe leather you might very well not see a "miracle on the Marne" and more a replay of the siege of Paris of 1870-71 or Paris being declared an open city. If the Germans are in Paris and everywhere north of the Seine the French are toast - they have lost essentially all the coal and iron deposits and a huge chunk of the industry needed to run the war.

IMHO if Belgium allows the Germans to transit Belgium, there is no destruction in Belgium as this happens (by the Germans) British entry in to the war becomes problematic. If Britain does not enter the war, therefor no blockade and Germany imports whatever it wants with minimal interference from the Marine National. In this scenario Italy may very well honor its treaties and jump in against France. No Britain France loses, period. With Britain but more of France occupied and Italy goes with the CP, France/Britain probably lose.
 
OK, it all about the parameters. How hard were the trains pushed into Belgium in the game:
  • Was the attempt to transport a whole army to Ypres, or was it a division or 3 to Brussels?
The German capacity across the board seems to have been about three corps entrained at once. Or six infantry divisions plus a robust corps slice. Entrain more than that & the ability to keep ammunition and oats delivered to the artillery droops off badly. However the game recognized the problem of railway choke points & the ability or lack of the pass high volume traffic through rail centers like Liege. That puts a practical limit of 2 corps without a lot of tricky gaming the system. The single trunk line passing though Luxembourg was used freely by the Germans OTL. It appears to have had the capacity to pass one corps group every two days. The Belgian Army OTL seems to have been able to entrain only 1-2 divisions at any given day.

Clearly the Germans could not rush trainloads of soldiers and cannon across Belgium. They'd need a reasonably coordinated railway schedule/plan in place with the Belgian railways. German supervisors at most control nodes would be essential to proper execution. Given how carefully everyone had to write up and test railway plans for mobilization

  • Was it done at the very start, or was a bit (a few days or a week) of planning time allowed?

Referring back to the previous answer. Within Germany three corps entrained simultaneously seems to be the upper limit before tradeoffs cut into other aspects. Mostly supply. I seen a criique arguing how in the context of the game thats to high. Since I don't have the German army railway transport tables I can't say either way.

The Germans were famous in this campaign for having forward railways opening groups. Represented in the game by "Eisenbahnbautruppen" pieces. What you discover in the game is there are not remotely enough of them. The capacity is well below whats needed. This seems to reflect the bits I've read about the German supply problems as they marched deeper into France. The routes of the French railways were a additional & significant problem, lacking many high capacity routes into eastern Belgium.

In the context of the game I'd prefer to rush a army through the Ardennes vs Brussels. Armies off on their own are vulnerable & you never want to have flanks dangling in the air. The OTL example is Klucks First army. If I were to risk getting a army caught on its own and curb stomped, then disrupting a French move into the Belgian Ardennes would be the first choice. The terrain is better for a defender there & help is closer what with the German armies coming through Luxembourg.
 
And would the French change their strategy in time?

They were set on an offensive into Lorraine, and would be delighted at a German swing to the right, since the further west their line extended, the thinner they would (supposedly) be in Lorraine, and the easier for the French Army to break through there. By the time they realised that it wasn't going to be that way, it could well be too late.

Need to check the French plans. IIRC there was a well developed plan for Belgian non resistance. the positioning of the 4th Army had a lot to do with that, & the existence of the 5th Army was as a strategic reserve for such events. Otherwise it needed to be in the attack into Alsace or Lorraine. OTL they stuck with Plan 17 as long as they did because the collapse of the Belgian defense @ Liege was such a surprise.
 
Thanks @Carl Schwamberger .

SO how would such a move happen? Would the cavalry race to Brussels to capture the city and then the railway men move in along the route and then the Corps start rolling in? Would this be any faster than OTL?
 
Presumably it enables the Germans to send some troops to Antwerp tp prevent any British landing. So their flank is that bit safer.
 
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