AHC/WI: ARW a generation or two earlier...

...or three, or maybe even four?

Not sure what the casus belli would be so I tagged on an 'AHC', however I'm more interested in the effects than the cause.

What if a successful American revolution occurred anytime between 1700 and 1760? Possibly whilst England (or Great Britain) is distracted in a war closer to home?

What might it look like? Who would be the potential players? What sort of government might arise? How would it fare, etc.?

One stipulation: While more than the thirteen colonies can be involved, no fewer than, say, twelve of OTL's thirteen colonies must be present.* In other words, it has to closely resemble the constituent states of our Revolution.

Bonus points if the fathers or grandfathers of our own timeline's founding fathers distinguish themselves militarily, politically, or otherwise.

Ideas?

*Edit: I'm aware than the colonies didn't identically resemble the ones from later in the century, but you know what I mean. This is to prevent a New England Commonwealth from rebelling without Virginia or New York being involved. Must be very similar to the colonies of OTL's revolution in the seventies...
 
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Saphroneth

Banned
Kipling noted in a rather sarcastic poem that the American desire for independence came about pretty much as soon as the proximate threat from the French was removed, which seems at least a possibility as far as causes go. (Not "the" cause, but "a" cause.)




Twas not while England's sword unsheathed
Put half a world to flight,
Nor while their new-built cities breathed
Secure behind her might;
Not while she poured from Pole to Line
Treasure and ships and men--
These worshippers at Freedoms shrine
They did not quit her then!

Not till their foes were driven forth
By England o'er the main--
Not till the Frenchman from the North
Had gone with shattered Spain;
Not till the clean-swept oceans showed
No hostile flag unrolled,
Did they remember that they owed
To Freedom--and were bold!



There's also the issue that the population differential in 1776 was about 1:4 in favour of the motherland. Further back, there's fewer people in the Americas to rebel proportionately to the British population base.

As for "a war closer to home" - well, most of Britain's wars in the period were arguably mainly colonial. (Austrian Succession started in the colonies for Britain, versus Spain; Spanish Succession involved considerable fighting in the colonies as well; the French and Indian War is well known. And after those wars had largely removed any chance of invasion of the Thirteen Colonies by other European powers... the Americans Revoluted.)

...ungrateful sods :D
 
if earlier before the Republican sentiments took part, we can look forward into the United Kingdom of America :D

I'm thinking something between OTL's UK and original US government and here's why:

1. The reason to rebel will probably have to be simar to OTL's later reasons to rebel. They may not want a 'Spirit of '76' style Democratic Republic, but they won't want to have to rebel against themselves in the next few years over the same old bullshit.

2. A lot of the ideas incorporated into the fledgling government existed and were recognized particularly by dissatisfied colonists as sound ideas. It won't be a carbon copy of our early US government, and that government was of course far from inevitable, but I doubt the US* here will form an identical government to the motherland's.

3. The English Civil War and the Glorious Revolution had well illustrated the necessity of limited federal power. The degree with which that is implemented here is anyone's guess; but there was a precedent for limiting your government.

Maybe some kind of monstrous mix of the Roman Imperial Republic (they loved the classics then, after all), the constitutional monarchy of the UK, and the US Democratic Republic of OTL would come about. Interesting to think on...
 

Driftless

Donor
Weren't some of the taxation problems that fed the OTL, a by-product of trying to pay off the cost of the French & Indian War, or to pre-pay for the future round....?

Make this POD 1743 - and have George II involvement against the French during the War of Austrian Succession heat up into and intercontinental brouhaha. That in turn sets the clock forward on the French & Indian War.
 
Weren't some of the taxation problems that fed the OTL, a by-product of trying to pay off the cost of the French & Indian War, or to pre-pay for the future round....?

Make this POD 1743 - and have George II involvement against the French during the War of Austrian Succession heat up into and intercontinental brouhaha. That in turn sets the clock forward on the French & Indian War.

Great idea, really. That takes care of the challenge part.

But then what?
 
Kipling noted in a rather sarcastic poem that the American desire for independence came about pretty much as soon as the proximate threat from the French was removed, which seems at least a possibility as far as causes go. (Not "the" cause, but "a" cause.)


Twas not while England's sword unsheathed
Put half a world to flight,
Nor while their new-built cities breathed
Secure behind her might;
Not while she poured from Pole to Line
Treasure and ships and men--
These worshippers at Freedoms shrine
They did not quit her then!

Not till their foes were driven forth
By England o'er the main--
Not till the Frenchman from the North
Had gone with shattered Spain;
Not till the clean-swept oceans showed
No hostile flag unrolled,
Did they remember that they owed
To Freedom--and were bold!

So Saratoga and Yorktown came to pass
Where they did kick Britannic ass!

There's also the issue that the population differential in 1776 was about 1:4 in favour of the motherland. Further back, there's fewer people in the Americas to rebel proportionately to the British population base.

Indeed. The further back you go, the more the Rebellious Americans Colonies look and act like Loyalist Canadians. A good example why the decision to invade Canada was such a wrong-headed move. Politically, Canada in 1775 was more like 1690 Colonial America. VERY underdeveloped and desperately in need of British protection. Especially the Quebecois.

Which is why Major General Sir Guy Carleton (later Lord Dorester) was the only British flag officer to emerge from the ARW with his career and reputation considerably enhanced.:cool:

As for "a war closer to home" - well, most of Britain's wars in the period were arguably mainly colonial. (Austrian Succession started in the colonies for Britain, versus Spain; Spanish Succession involved considerable fighting in the colonies as well; the French and Indian War is well known. And after those wars had largely removed any chance of invasion of the Thirteen Colonies by other European powers... the Americans Revoluted.)

Yeah, we all know of course that the very day the British withdrew from the 7YW every colonial assembly and governor jumped up on their chairs and screamed: "FOOD FIGHT!"

I like your style, but work on your post 7YW pre-ARW British/Colonial relations history.;)

Sore Loser said:
...ungrateful sods :D

...greedy slobs.:p

Google "British policies towards Ireland 1798-1920" if you want to get an idea of what awaited the American Colonies IF they had not relinquished themselves of being John Bull's favorite chew toy.:D

Weren't some of the taxation problems that fed the OTL, a by-product of trying to pay off the cost of the French & Indian War, or to pre-pay for the future round....?

Make this POD 1743 - and have George II involvement against the French during the War of Austrian Succession heat up into and intercontinental brouhaha. That in turn sets the clock forward on the French & Indian War.

Good idea. The lower American population and lesser level of economic development may change Parliament's POV regarding overlording the Colonies. If the 7YW is rolled back a decade, does the disastrous British change of Colonial post-7YW policies also get butterflied somewhat. (1)

When asked by General Rochambeau: "Just what is this all about?" regarding the American Rebellion, the Marquis de Layfayette replied: "Well, after 150 years of virtually ignoring their colonies, after the Seven Years War the British decided to run them directly from Westminster." That puts the whole affair in as good a nutshell as I've ever heard it.

Great idea, really. That takes care of the challenge part.

But then what?

In answer to the OP:

Militarily and politically, the run up to the earlier ARW is far softer, causing much greater Tory sentiment, and less European support. Prescence of the French and Spainiards in NA is going to have its rally effect too. Most likely, another brief "American Revolt", quickly put down by a combination of British and American Militia troops.
 
I appreciate the input, but the OP specifically states that the Americans win independence in this scenario, challenges you to describe how if you like, and then encourages you to describe the effects and challenges to the new nation. What form of government is likely to emerge and could a democratic republic eventually replace this government later on? What alliances and wars and would this younger US be more interested in expansion through explorer's claims, purchases, and peace treaties?

What about slavery?

Would the British try for round two in the 70s? It's about the exact distance between OTL's revolution and the war of 1812...

I want thought experiments, ideas, serious in depth hypothesis and discussions about those hypothesis, etc. and I'll pay damn good (theoretical) money to get them!

*Throws imaginary Internet currency at you brilliant lot*
 
I appreciate the input, but the OP specifically states that the Americans win independence in this scenario, challenges you to describe how if you like, and then encourages you to describe the effects and challenges to the new nation. What form of government is likely to emerge and could a democratic republic eventually replace this government later on? What alliances and wars and would this younger US be more interested in expansion through explorer's claims, purchases, and peace treaties?

What about slavery?

Would the British try for round two in the 70s? It's about the exact distance between OTL's revolution and the war of 1812...

I want thought experiments, ideas, serious in depth hypothesis and discussions about those hypothesis, etc. and I'll pay damn good (theoretical) money to get them!

*Throws imaginary Internet currency at you brilliant lot*

Alright, how about a PoD which sees Canada end up a part of the US in the ARW?

Perhaps Montcalm doesn't come west, there's a greater use of native auxillaries and guerrilla tactics in the 1760-1763 equivalent, and the war ends with greater resentment of the British. The British hold onto a redoubt in the Maritimes, at least in the immediate aftermath of the ARW, but there's a large, free state French part of the US. It would have effective sovereignty in a strip along the St. Lawrence out to the Gaspe, with future state borders in OTL Ontario and Quebec to be defined at a later date. Picture: http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/royal-proclamation-of-1763/

That's at least one more northern free state than OTL, with a path to more in the future. Southwestern Ontario and the shores of the Great Lakes are wide open, and the natives aren't going to have British support at all. Northern expansion will be faster, so the relative strength of the South will decline faster. Civil war in 1830? I don't know. But there could certainly be a crisis sooner than in OTL.

I would suggest slightly stronger states relative to the federal government, with Quebec (and later Louisiana and perhaps New Brunswick) receiving language rights and French civil law, as Quebec did in British North America.

I don't see the country feeling urgent pressure to expand its borders elsewhere faster than OTL, but I can see an interest in a campaign to push the British out of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Expansion though the Florida, Louisiana, and western frontiers would happen organically. Detente with Britain would still happen eventually, and both Spain and France are probably going to grow weaker in their hold on their territories. Britain will at least give up Rupert's Land, France will give up Louisiana, and Spain will lose at least Florida.
 
Why rather not having the colonies secede during the english civil war ?

This POD would highly change the course of history.
 
Why rather not having the colonies secede during the english civil war ?

This POD would highly change the course of history.

Um, there was hardly anything or anyone there in the 1640s. The Colonists at that point needed defending from the Natives alone, never mind the French.
 
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