AHC/WI: Argentina wins Falklands War

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Does anyone else notice that almost all the "What If" scenarios about the Falklands are desperately searching for a better performance by the Argies?

I say let's give the post-invasion Brits a better performance for once. Install CIWS on the warships earlier that OTL, get the HAS2(AEW) into service with the first CBG, not the second, etc. With the carriers, escorts and transports effectively protected from Exocets and with the Sea Harriers controlled from AEW, thus reducing fuel and fatigue on unnecessary CAP, how quickly could the RN roll this thing up?

Maybe Britain takes the gloves off earlier, and you don't even need the improvements (perhaps the Argentines attack HMS Ariadne in Gibraltar on May 2nd, the earlier in the same day before, or perhaps attack a British minesweeper in Gibraltar some days earlier, both of which were considered).

The Argentine recon 707 gets shot down earlier (and hopefully not a Brazilian airliner) near Ascension.

Conqueror sinks Belgrano and both escorting destroyers (which were spared so they could rescue casualties). Splendid sinks the carrier, and most/all of the A4Qs and S-2s go down with her, or crash into the sea with nowhere to land.

Stronger pressure is put on the French, including revealing the intelligence that the Dassault technicians are still there - as without them the Argentines can't mate the Super Etendards with Exocets.

Surely some arm-twisting can also be done to the Israelis, so stop their technical help.

The Argentine airforce and FAA is blinded, without its most effective offensive weapons, and even poorer servicibility.
 
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Maybe Britain takes the gloves off earlier, and you don't even need the improvements (perhaps the Argentines attack HMS Ariadne in Gibraltar on May 2nd, the earlier in the same day before, or perhaps attack a British minesweeper in Gibraltar some days earlier, both of which were considered).

The Argentine recon 707 gets shot down earlier (and hopefully not a Brazilian airliner) near Ascension.

Conqueror sinks Belgrano and both escorting destroyers (which were spared so they could rescue casualties). Splendid sinks the carrier, and most/all of the A4Qs and S-2s go down with her, or crash into the sea with nowhere to land.

Stronger pressure is put on the French, including revealing the intelligence that the Dassault technicians are still there - as without them the Argentines can't mate the Super Etendards with Exocets.

Surely some arm-twisting can also be done to the Israelis, so stop their technical help.

The Argentine airforce and FAA is blinded, without its most effective offensive weapons, and even poorer servicibility.

On the subject of French techs I thought that the French left pretty much the same day as the Argentines invaded - however the Argentine Techs were at that point sufficiently trained to 'muddle through' and get the weapons to work.

Also the French did a lot to assist the British in understanding the threat and also helping them hunt down spare missiles (to prevent the Argentines getting hold of them).

One thing Britain could do is not declare an Exclusion zone - instead warn all other nations that Britain is intending to persecute the war by any mand all means possible and that any Argentine vessel or Aircraft etc is fair game

I have friends who are convinced that because the Gen. Belgrano was 'Outside' this exclusion zone that sinking her was a war crime!

Me I would have sunk both it and the Aircraft carrier on or about the 1st and 2nd May - the shock of their loss may have ended the war!
 
Does anyone else notice that almost all the "What If" scenarios about the Falklands are desperately searching for a better performance by the Argies?

I say let's give the post-invasion Brits a better performance for once. Install CIWS on the warships earlier that OTL, get the HAS2(AEW) into service with the first CBG, not the second, etc. With the carriers, escorts and transports effectively protected from Exocets and with the Sea Harriers controlled from AEW, thus reducing fuel and fatigue on unnecessary CAP, how quickly could the RN roll this thing up?

I have the same view of Midway and I plan to revisit my TL on this someday. Everyone talks about the Japanese doing better when IMWO you look at some of the errors the US made, I argue the US should have done better.

I agree, what are the results of a better performance by the British? You can easily come up with a number of PODs to make this happen that I think will produce some pretty interesting butterflies.
 
Does anyone else notice that almost all the "What If" scenarios about the Falklands are desperately searching for a better performance by the Argies?

I say let's give the post-invasion Brits a better performance for once. Install CIWS on the warships earlier that OTL, get the HAS2(AEW) into service with the first CBG, not the second, etc. With the carriers, escorts and transports effectively protected from Exocets and with the Sea Harriers controlled from AEW, thus reducing fuel and fatigue on unnecessary CAP, how quickly could the RN roll this thing up?

Or have a bunch of WWII Firefly tanks stored somewhere in the islands :rolleyes::p

Anyway, this is AH.com, so What ifs about changing an outcome seem more interesting than making that outcome happen faster.
In any case, if the Junta feels the RN has better power projection capabilities than in OTL, the better performance butterflies the war away.
 
My favourite Falklands WI is Argentina miscalculates, assumes Britain's about to fall like France, and invades the islands in summer 1940.
 
Or have a bunch of WWII Firefly tanks stored somewhere in the islands :rolleyes::p

Anyway, this is AH.com, so What ifs about changing an outcome seem more interesting than making that outcome happen faster.
Then we simply need Argentina to play to their strengths, time. Sure the Junta may fall without the distraction of the Malvinas campaign, but the following government will be better placed to negotiate with a Britain that is disinterested with the islands.
 
My favourite Falklands WI is Argentina miscalculates, assumes Britain's about to fall like France, and invades the islands in summer 1940.
Argentina had a pro-British government back then, which wanted to play a pro-Allied neutrality but was rebuked by the USA in that.

Now, for a complicated turn of events: the Graff Spee has fewer ships pursuing it than OTL, for reasons. It manages to shake off smaller ships near the Falklands but it's too battle damaged and retreats to the islands to avoid sinking (or whatever reason it can make a WWII warship alter course to some islands without proper facilities).
However, due the fog of war, Britain and Argentina believe it's a German invasion of the Falklands. And, for whatever reasons, the Royal Navy can't deal with it at the moment - no warships in the vicinity.
As a way to show commitment to it's... ehem... not quite Imperial Overlord, fearing neutrality is not an option and to solve the sovereignty issue, the Argentine government dispatches the Argentine Navy to deal with the (unknown to them) beached Graf Spee. They do, at some cost, and Argentine marines garrison the islands to prevent any further "German invasion".
Argentina is now on the Allied side and, once the war is over, the islands would have been under an Allied Argentine garrison for five years.

Then we simply need Argentina to play to their strengths, time. Sure the Junta may fall without the distraction of the Malvinas campaign, but the following government will be better placed to negotiate with a Britain that is disinterested with the islands.
Yeah, but then how do you get a discussion going about the various nitpicks of military equipment of the early '80s? :p
 

Howlers

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Here’s my take These are things that will make Argentine victory the most likely

1. Invade when the Argentines originally planned to May 15 this would made the invasion harder for the British due to the cold weather
2.Use professional soldiers instead of conscripts. Also inform them that this a real war and also send heavy artillery.
3. Have the Airforce be included in the planning of the invasion the Argentine airforce was only informed of the plan of inavision in January.
4. Have all arms of the Argentine military coordinate the Argentine military had rivalry between one another in the OTL
5. Deploy a second radar only one radar was one the Falklands which allowed to move on the Falklands undetected
6. Don’t have the whole Navy withdraw due to the sinking of General Blegrano which was an obsolete cruiser that was at Pearl Harbor. The withdraw of the Navy only allowed for air resupply of the land forces
 
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