On March 1st 2008, the Colombian military launched a raid on a FARC camp across the Ecuadorian border, killing over twenty militants. The governments Ecuador and Venezuela both strongly condemned what they called an "act of aggression" by Colombia and severed diplomatic contact with Bogota. Both nations also moved troops to their borders with Colombia, with Venezuela going as far as mobilizing ten battalions. Colombia responded by accusing Ecuador and Venezuela of aiding and financing FARC, using files obtained in the March 1st raid as evidence. However, they did not mobilize their military, publicly refusing to be "drawn into war". After days of frantic diplomacy by the OAS and other South American nations, the leaders of the affected nations publicly reconciled at a March 7th Rio Group meeting, declaring the crisis over the following day.
So, between March 1 and March 8 of 2008, how could this crisis have escalated into a full-blown war between the three nations? I assume one likely PoD could be Colombia mobilizing it's military in response to it's neighbor's actions, creating an environment of heightened tensions that could escalate into something worse.
How would such a war be fought, and who would the likely victor be? Could any other nations be dragged into the conflict? What effects would this conflict have on the region?
What would America's role be? Could the US directly intervene in support of Colombia, or would that be politically unfeasible due to Colombia's role in "starting" the crisis, the continuing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and being right in the middle of the last year of the Bush administration?