AHC/WI: Alternate Cold War between the United States of America and Italy

[Caravels of Portugal]

In the OTL, the Cold War was fought between capitalist states led by the United States, and the communist states led by the Soviet Union. What if the communists were replaced with fascists led by Italy in the ATL? The POD for this scenario is a Central Powers victory leading to an alternate World War II caused by an expansionistic Stalinist Russia attempting to dismantle the German Empire and to establish a world revolution. This causes massive devastation in Europe, which allows the fascist movements and nationalistic parties to seize power in most of Continental Western Europe and the Balkans.

What would the world be like?

 

[Lalli]

I can't really see Stalinist Russia would invading Europe or even attempting that. Stalin wasn't stupid enough to do that.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

Italy doesn't really have the GDP to be a Cold War power, unless they somehow control a lot more territory (keeping the Balkans, Albania, northeast Africa, etc.)

 

[walmart]

Italy doesn't have economy and population to compete with America. Now having Fascist Italy on the opposite side of the United States is quite easy, with a Fascist Italy-Soviet Union alliance against the west.

 

[Caravels of Portugal]

I can't really see Stalinist Russia would invading Europe or even attempting that. Stalin wasn't stupid enough to do that.

Can you explain why?

Italy doesn't really have the GDP to be a Cold War power, unless they somehow control a lot more territory (keeping the Balkans, Albania, northeast Africa, etc.)

Italy doesn't have economy and population to compete with America. Now having Fascist Italy on the opposite side of the United States is quite easy, with a Fascist Italy-Soviet Union alliance against the west.

In the ATL, Fascist Italy forms the Axis Powers in the aftermath of the Soviet Union's invasion of Western Europe. The founding countries and their leaders in brackets are Italy (Benito Mussolini), France (Charles Maurras), West Germany (Gregor Strasser) and Spain (Francisco Franco). It was later joined by subsequent members Portugal (Antonio Salazar), Romania (Ion Antonescu), Hungary (Miklos Horthy), Bulgaria (Tsar Boris III), Croatia and Serbia (Ante Pavelic and Milan Nedic), and Greece (Georgios Papadopoulos).

The main purpose of the Axis Powers was to establish a hegemony led by Italy. It was meant as a military-industrial-ideological complex meant to pool all the resources and efforts of the Fascist-aligned countries to counter the United States of America and its allies as well spread fascism as an ideology around the world. This includes research in developing atomic weapons codenamed the 'Thorium Club'; intervention in the Algerian War, Gold Shirt Rebellion and the Tripolitanian War of Independence; and supporting the activities of Blue China (Chiang Kai-shek), Azad Hindustan (Subhas Chandra Bose), the Republic of Mesopotamia (Rashid Ali al-Gaylani and Antoun Saadeh), and Integralist Brazil (Plinio Salgado).

 

[Lalli]

Can you explain why?

Because Stalin knows that if he attacks to Eastern Europe without them being distracted by something else, they are fgoing to be unified front anc rush him like a bug. And in CP victory Germany has too Ukraine so Stalin would has lesser resources. He was many things but not stupid. Probably evne Trotsky would had realised such thing being total suicide.

In the ATL, Fascist Italy forms the Axis Powers in the aftermath of the Soviet Union's invasion of Western Europe. The founding countries and their leaders in brackets are Italy (Benito Mussolini), France (Charles Maurras), West Germany (Gregor Strasser) and Spain (Francisco Franco). It was later joined by subsequent members Portugal (Antonio Salazar), Romania (Ion Antonescu), Hungary (Miklos Horthy), Bulgaria (Tsar Boris III), Croatia and Serbia (Ante Pavelic and Milan Nedic), and Greece (Georgios Papadopoulos).

Why all of European major powers would turn as fascist after alternate WW2? In OTL whole Europe didn't turn as communist after WW2. And Italy is not able to "liberate" whole Europe. And why only just West Germany? What happens to Eastern Germany and other Eatern European countries?

The main purpose of the Axis Powers was to establish a hegemony led by Italy. It was meant as a military-industrial-ideological complex meant to pool all the resources and efforts of the Fascist-aligned countries to counter the United States of America and its allies as well spread fascism as an ideology around the world. This includes research in developing atomic weapons codenamed the 'Thorium Club'; intervention in the Algerian War, Gold Shirt Rebellion and the Tripolitanian War of Independence; and supporting the activities of Blue China (Chiang Kai-shek), Azad Hindustan (Subhas Chandra Bose), the Republic of Mesopotamia (Rashid Ali al-Gaylani and Antoun Saadeh), and Integralist Brazil (Plinio Salgado).

Italy is not nowhere strong enough to spread fascism around. It has not such military might that it could take control in Europe. Soviet Union managed to that in OTL only because it occupied several countries which were devastated by WW2. But Italy is not able to do that.

It would be Germany and USA who would liberate Europe assuming that you make Stalin really stupid man who tries conquer Europe.

 

[Jiraiyathegallant]

I can only see Italy getting this strong is it stays out of both wars until the end and makes gains by joining the winning side late, discovers Libyan oil early, makes a huge profit selling to both sides of the World Wars, stays out of unproductive conflicts (Ethiopia), uses it’s neutrality and perhaps some kind of clutch intervention to appear to the only sane power, and uses the destruction of the wars and their profits to establish some kind of EU trade bloc that can be attached Catholicism. If Italy had been neutral during both wars and sold to both sides, it could probably establish itself as financially powerful and an attractive alternative to America.

The problem is that this kind of Italy would make the World Wars unrecognizable and even then, America dwarfs this bloc. Fascism itself is also probably not going to establish countries with GDPs that can compete with Northern Europe and the US in the long term. The youth would probably be drawn into global consumer culture and loose interest in the regime over time.

Germany and Russia are probably the only European powers with the size and strength to avoid getting drawn into some kind of Anglo-American orbit after WWI provided America and Britain hookup.

 

[Caravels of Portugal]

Why all of European major powers would turn as fascist after alternate WW2?

It's going to be a long and elaborate story:

• France turned fascist shortly in the aftermath of World War 1. Widespread poverty caused by the German Empire forcing the French government to pay an indemnity of 10 billion marks and general anti-German sentiment caused the National Reaction - a coup orchestrated by Francois de La Rocque of Croix-de-Feu to let the extreme-right leagues of France to topple the government. In turn, the National Reaction government initiated French rearmament to build up troop strength with the help of Fascist Italy.
• Spain, Greece and Portugal, same as OTL.
• West Germany turned fascist in the end of World War 2. The Soviet Union's invasion of the German Empire, codenamed Operation Yekaterina, and the subsequent Kaganovich Plan devastated Germany. Massacres, enslavement, deportations to concentration camps, and starvation killed 30 million ethnic Germans along with the reduction of 78% of the diaspora in Europe. This causes the German Civil War between the Brownshirts led by Gregor Strasser and the Kreisau Circle led by Graf Claus von Stauffenberg, dividing Germany into the West and the East.
• Hungary and the Balkans turned fascist in the end of World War 2. The Soviet Union invaded Hungary and the Balkans except Greece to provide supplies for the advancing Red Army in its invasion of the German Empire and provide a platform to invade Italy. These countries occupied by Red Army were used as a testing ground for aspects of the Kaganovich Plan such as seizure of victuals and materials, deindustrialization and forced labor. The Red Army also attempted a thwarted invasion of Greece that grinded to a halt despite support from its collaborators EAM-ELAS.

What happens to Eastern Germany and other Eastern European countries?

Eastern Germany is an autocratic nation ruled by a military junta. The junta is composed of Graf Claus von Stauffenberg, Helmuth James von Moltke, General Erwin Rommel, Herman Goering and Carl Friedrich Goerdeler. The junta claims to be the legitimate successor to the German Empire, not the Strasserite Party in West Germany. Poland and Czechoslovakia was consolidated to form Zapadoslavia as way to counter the perceived strength of the Axis Powers.

The former Soviet Union was broken up by the victorious Allied Powers into several countries - Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the United Baltic Duchy, Turkestan, Caucasia and Siberia. The country of Russia lost the Karelia territory to Finland, Murmansk region to Sweden and Norway, and lost parts to Ukraine. These countries were rebuilt to deter fascist influence and to prevent Russia from becoming a threat to global security.

 

[Lalli]

It's going to be a long and elaborate story:

• France turned fascist shortly in the aftermath of World War 1. Widespread poverty caused by the German Empire forcing the French government to pay an indemnity of 10 billion marks and general anti-German sentiment caused the National Reaction - a coup orchestrated by Francois de La Rocque of Croix-de-Feu to let the extreme-right leagues of France to topple the government. In turn, the National Reaction government initiated French rearmament to build up troop strength with the help of Fascist Italy.

France going as fascist makes sense. But Italy wouldn't still be strong enough. Like previously suggested, it would work better if Itealy stays out of both world wars. But it is still unlikely that Italy goes fascist in such scenatio.

Another problem is that even if France goies fascist, it hardly would be able to re-militarise itself. And French people are quiet demoralised. They have lost two wars against Germany in 50 years. There hardly is much will power to take third round.

• Spain, Greece and Portugal, same as OTL.

I am not really sure if history of these countries would go same as in OTL when CPs have won WW1. And what did happen to Austria-Hungary?

• West Germany turned fascist in the end of World War 2. The Soviet Union's invasion of the German Empire, codenamed Operation Yekaterina, and the subsequent Kaganovich Plan devastated Germany. Massacres, enslavement, deportations to concentration camps, and starvation killed 30 million ethnic Germans along with the reduction of 78% of the diaspora in Europe. This causes the German Civil War between the Brownshirts led by Gregor Strasser and the Kreisau Circle led by Graf Claus von Stauffenberg, dividing Germany into the West and the East.

That sounds really high level killing. Even OTL Germany lost around 7M people and even then mostly military personnels. Yes, Soviets were really brutal but they hardly would commit something what could be described as genocide. That would be totally pointless. And I can't see Germany going to civil war.

Easter7n Germany is an autocratic nation ruled by a military junta. The junta is composed of Graf Claus von Stauffenberg, Helmuth James von Moltke, General Erwin Rommel, Herman Goering and Carl Friedrich Goerdeler. The junta claims to be the legitimate successor to the German Empire, not the Strasserite Party in West Germany. Poland and Czechoslovakia was consolidated to form Zapadoslavia as way to counter the perceived strength of the Axis Powers.

Germany being divided as two right-wing authotarian countries not make any sense. And if Germany is indeed such devastated as you describe, how East Germany can even be exist? More logical would be either fascist west Germany and demoicratic/moderately left-wing East Germany.

doslavia as way to counter the perceived strength of the Axis Powers.

The former Soviet Union was broken up by the victorious Allied Powers into several countries - Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the United Baltic Duchy, Turkestan, Caucasia and Siberia. The country of Russia lost the Karelia territory to Finland, Murmansk region to Sweden and Norway, and lost parts to Ukraine. These countries were rebuilt to deter fascist influence and to prevent Russia from becoming a threat to global security.

I can't see Sweden and Norway getting Murmansk. More logical would be that place going to Finland. Why Sweden even would be involved?

And Baltic Duchy and Caucasia probalby would be disbanded to smaller countries.

 

[Caravels of Portugal]

And what did happen to Austria-Hungary?

It collapses into several countries, which are Austria (annexed by the German Empire as Ostmark), Hungary, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and parts of Romania.

That sounds really high level killing. Even OTL Germany lost around 7M people and even then mostly military personnels. Yes, Soviets were really brutal but they hardly would commit something what could be described as genocide.

It was called the Ochistka.

After the Central Powers won World War 1, there was a wave of anti-German sentiment all over Europe. All sorts of manifestations such as anti-German literature and propaganda campaigns spread around Europe. The infamous book Knight Without A Horse was anti-German hoax, written by an anonymous French writer, which became the basis of various anti-German conspiracies. Claims include the Kaiser's plan for world domination, supporting the Russian Revolution, child abduction and murder by the German aristocracy, and others,

Joseph Stalin ideated the Prussian militarism conspiracy theory. According to this conspiracy theory, the Kaiser and his cabal of German nobles, military officers, arms magnates, major industrialists and members of the German bourgeois were planning to invade the Soviet Union and exterminate its populace for German settlement. Afterwards, the Kaiser and the Prussian cabal would take over the world to dominate all the non-German people. It also claimed the German people were inherently warlike, man-eating and venal, being compared to Huns.

In a fit of rage, Joseph Stalin ordered the government to spread the Prussian militarism conspiracy theory all over Eastern Europe while building up military strength in preparation for Operation Yekaterina - the invasion of the German Empire. In the build-up to the invasion following the fall of the Eastern European states under Soviet influence, Joseph Stalin and his comrades discussed in a meeting on ending the Prussian militarism system, leading to the Kaganovich plan.

The Stalinist occupation of the former German Empire was described as devastating and full of suffering. Germany was in ruins after months of brutal warfare between the Imperial German Army and the Red Army, terror bombings by the Soviet Air Force, mass killings of German non-combatants by the NKVD Destruction Battalions, and earliest usage of biological warfare in the 20th century, followed by the French invasion of the western territories of the German Empire.

Rosa Luxemburg was installed as a puppet leader for the occupational government with the Rotfront acting as enforcers. The Red Army and the NKVD patrolled the occupied territories, engaging in the mass deportations of Germans to labor camps in the Soviet Union and its allies. German intellectuals, army officers, nobles, and Imperial government officials were murdered by NKVD death squads.

All industry in Germany underwent deindustrialization by the Stalinists through the forced labor of Germans drafted, and the machinery were sent to the Soviet Union. The Red Army plundered all of Germany for things considered important in the buildup for the invasion of Italy and France. Tanks, planes, trucks, artillery, foodstuffs, medicine and other construction materials were requisitioned from the Germans. This resulted in widespread starvation and easily-treatable diseases becoming deadly and reaching in pandemic levels.

And if Germany is indeed such devastated as you describe, how East Germany can even be exist? More logical would be either fascist west Germany and democratic/moderately left-wing East Germany.

Can explain about your statement?

 

[Lalli]

Can explain about your statement?

I mean that that East Germany would need someone's economic support to be even remotely viable. West Germany too should be economically really dependent. WW2 and German Civil War should make whole Germany really devastated, even worse than OTL post-WW2 Germany. Italy supplies fascist WG but who supplies military junta EG?

 

[Caravels of Portugal]

Italy supplies fascist WG

Actually, it's Fascist Italy and National Reaction France that supports West Germany, or Strasserite Germany, with economic and military support for rebuilding large sections of the country devastated by the Stalinist invasion and later the German Civil War. After the reconstruction of Strasserite Germany

but who supplies military junta EG?

The United States of America, Great Britain and the Republic of Russia helps in supporting the existence of East Germany. The United States reconstructs the damaged infrastructure of the country following the two conflicts, installing military bases and missile launchers. The Republic of Russia provides raw materials and industrial support in defending it against Strasserite Germany. The United Kingdom supplies air support and bases for defense.

 

[Arkenfolm]

France turned fascist shortly in the aftermath of World War 1. Widespread poverty caused by the German Empire forcing the French government to pay an indemnity of 10 billion marks and general anti-German sentiment caused the National Reaction - a coup orchestrated by Francois de La Rocque of Croix-de-Feu to let the extreme-right leagues of France to topple the government. In turn, the National Reaction government initiated French rearmament to build up troop strength with the help of Fascist Italy.

If France is the first fascist power, then why wouldn't they be the leaders of the fascist bloc? Even if defeated in World War I, France would still have a sizable colonial empire and global reach. Italy would also be devastated by the loss in World War I (unless they switched sides at the end and got something out of it like Nice, Savoy, etc.) so wouldn't be better off.

Italy and a network of Mediterranean satellite states just doesn't have the economy. They're also too involved in Africa to effectively spread fascism there (although might do better in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America) unless they kick Portugal out, although even then I think their second invasion of Ethiopia (widely condemned by African intellectuals) would cripple any true Afrofascist movements from gaining power even though I think "non-aligned" African rulers would still borrow elements of Afrofascism.